Widespread greening transitions and their drivers across the Cerrado ecoregion

Widespread greening transitions and their drivers across the Cerrado ecoregion | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Widespread greening transitions and their drivers across the Cerrado ecoregion Trisha Gopalakrishna, Joshua E. Buxton, Marina Hirota, Lucy Rowland, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9313503/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global environmental change is pushing ecosystems towards fundamental, often irreversible transitions. These transitions are expected to become more frequent, resulting in disruption of ecosystem benefits that we rely on. While proven theoretically, there has been variable success in detecting such transitions and their drivers using real world observations, especially in complex tropical landscapes including tropical savannas. Here we determine ecosystem transitions and their drivers across South America’s largest savanna biome, the Cerrado ecoregion in Brazil between 2001–2021, which contains grasslands, savannas and forest vegetation formations. Our results reveal a staggering 94.6% of native vegetation area has undergone transitions, with three fourths exhibiting a greening pattern. Critically, around 90% of the transitioned areas are rapid regime shifts, mostly occurring during the 2017–2018 La Niña years. While long term hotter and more seasonal climate generally promote greening across all vegetation formations, we find distinct ecological impacts for the remaining drivers. Increasing climate extremes, specifically drought conditions significantly suppress greening in savanna formations only, whereas altered fire regimes inhibit greening transitions in grasslands only. Despite widespread greening, anthropogenic pressures reduces the probability of greening transitions across all native vegetation formations. Though woody encroachment is the most common greening transition examined across tropical savannas globally, we posit that it is an unlikely explanation for the rapid regime shifts across the Cerrado , based on the rapidity of the transitions. Hence, questions remain regarding the causal mechanisms of greening transitions, especially rapid regime shifts, across the heterogenous and species rich Cerrado ecoregion. Our findings of the nature and drivers of ecosystem transitions will aid the design and implementation of environmental policies and conservation interventions aimed at supporting a resilient Cerrado and indeed all ecosystems. Terrestrial Ecology ecosystem transitions stability remote sensing climate change Brazil rapid regime shifts resilience savanna NDVI Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9313503","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":617186695,"identity":"87f8d64f-2e3a-4e9c-b899-679ae6a0132c","order_by":0,"name":"Trisha Gopalakrishna","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1448-4224","institution":"University of Bristol","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Trisha","middleName":"","lastName":"Gopalakrishna","suffix":""},{"id":617186748,"identity":"48e7f4cb-71d2-4e9a-a9c7-145893376780","order_by":1,"name":"Joshua E. 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These transitions are expected to become more frequent, resulting in disruption of ecosystem benefits that we rely on. While proven theoretically, there has been variable success in detecting such transitions and their drivers using real world observations, especially in complex tropical landscapes including tropical savannas. Here we determine ecosystem transitions and their drivers across South America\u0026rsquo;s largest savanna biome, the \u003cem\u003eCerrado\u003c/em\u003e ecoregion in Brazil between 2001\u0026ndash;2021, which contains grasslands, savannas and forest vegetation formations. Our results reveal a staggering 94.6% of native vegetation area has undergone transitions, with three fourths exhibiting a greening pattern. Critically, around 90% of the transitioned areas are rapid regime shifts, mostly occurring during the 2017\u0026ndash;2018 La Ni\u0026ntilde;a years. While long term hotter and more seasonal climate generally promote greening across all vegetation formations, we find distinct ecological impacts for the remaining drivers. Increasing climate extremes, specifically drought conditions significantly suppress greening in savanna formations only, whereas altered fire regimes inhibit greening transitions in grasslands only. Despite widespread greening, anthropogenic pressures reduces the probability of greening transitions across all native vegetation formations. Though woody encroachment is the most common greening transition examined across tropical savannas globally, we posit that it is an unlikely explanation for the rapid regime shifts across the \u003cem\u003eCerrado\u003c/em\u003e, based on the rapidity of the transitions. Hence, questions remain regarding the causal mechanisms of greening transitions, especially rapid regime shifts, across the heterogenous and species rich \u003cem\u003eCerrado\u003c/em\u003e ecoregion. Our findings of the nature and drivers of ecosystem transitions will aid the design and implementation of environmental policies and conservation interventions aimed at supporting a resilient \u003cem\u003eCerrado\u003c/em\u003e and indeed all ecosystems.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Widespread greening transitions and their drivers across the Cerrado ecoregion","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-06 03:05:41","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9313503/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"83e109c7-cfbd-4df1-8b70-aef96bd308c0","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 6th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":65683740,"name":"Terrestrial Ecology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-06T03:05:41+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-06 03:05:41","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9313503","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9313503","identity":"rs-9313503","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}