The Risk Analysis of Cart Development Based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks

The Risk Analysis of Cart Development Based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Risk Analysis of Cart Development Based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks Junjun Liu, Jingfei Yu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5818393/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract To address the issues of multiple uncertainties, complex structures, and unpredictability during the development of the trolley, this paper proposes a risk analysis method for trolley development based on dynamic Bayesian networks. First, based on extensive relevant literature and applying rough set reduction theory for optimization, a risk factor checklist with 5 primary indicators and 16 secondary indicators for the trolley development is constructed. Next, a dynamic Bayesian network model is established by introducing the time dimension. Fuzzy theory and expert scoring are used to quantify the probabilities of network nodes, and the Leaky Noisy-or Gate expansion model is applied to correct the conditional probabilities. Finally, the dynamic risk analysis of trolley development is performed using the bidirectional inference function of the dynamic Bayesian network. The time-series variation curve of the trolley development risk is obtained through case analysis. By reverse reasoning, the key risk factors for the occurrence of the trolley development risk are identified, and corresponding risk response strategies are proposed. The research results provide a new approach for analyzing and effectively controlling the risks associated with trolley development. fuzzy theory leaky noisy-or gate expansion model dynamic bayesian network cart development risk analysis Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5818393","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":401919405,"identity":"4f956690-c3b0-4467-b781-f0a38acd2fd8","order_by":0,"name":"Junjun Liu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA40lEQVRIie3PvYrCQBDA8ZWFsRlNu4LEznokID5OFsFrFCxTBG5FyRZ+1PoWKS2zCFvF3jKHL3DXpbjiHkC5jZ3F/ur5MzOMed4bgvZKRb91GkJ7bao4Sd1JFy9q2dnZKEA7paq07iQUH+obgcvTcT7sfW14g8PQrHKB0MqLOSRSAQv0Nnb9siaa9DkVV3uT5z4T5TV3bckoRgAyh9lNlsBILByJkLougCNdcLyUGW+UqJECLnoZjlmzBI2KWjtLAcJUxKVF5y8DrauI1elnNribnzpJw0Dv/08e4Gvjnud53lN/TdpKg6rk7ugAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Junjun","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":401919406,"identity":"d2d72396-0d7c-4d52-87a3-8ca52cd6eda2","order_by":1,"name":"Jingfei Yu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jingfei","middleName":"","lastName":"Yu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-01-13 09:08:05","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5818393/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5818393/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":73910900,"identity":"6569ffbb-4b4c-4506-8e63-3528d5226bcd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-15 22:31:21","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":542685,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ResearchPaper.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5818393/v1_covered_771f55af-7613-4580-89f1-e33c13144971.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The Risk Analysis of Cart Development Based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"fuzzy theory, leaky noisy-or gate expansion model, dynamic bayesian network, cart development, risk analysis","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5818393/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5818393/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eTo address the issues of multiple uncertainties, complex structures, and unpredictability during the development of the trolley, this paper proposes a risk analysis method for trolley development based on dynamic Bayesian networks. 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