Thermal Failure and Respiratory Health: A Physics-Based Exposure Metric and the Socioeconomic Moderation of Housing-COPD Associations in Greater Manchester

Thermal Failure and Respiratory Health: A Physics-Based Exposure Metric and the Socioeconomic Moderation of Housing-COPD Associations in Greater Manchester | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Thermal Failure and Respiratory Health: A Physics-Based Exposure Metric and the Socioeconomic Moderation of Housing-COPD Associations in Greater Manchester Jules Buckland This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8998145/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 6 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This Research Note introduces Weighted Failure Hours—a physics-based thermal exposure metric—and estimates its association with emergency respiratory hos- pitalisations across 294 neighbourhoods in Greater Manchester. Weighted Failure Hours integrates dwelling-level heat loss coefficients, household income-based affordability constraints, and observed weather data to estimate the annual hours during which affordable heating is insufficient to maintain indoor temperatures above the WHO safety threshold of 12◦C. Utilizing a log-log specification with controls for outdoor air pollution (PM2.5, NO2) and barriers to healthcare, we test whether thermal failure exposure operates as an independent driver of COPD admissions after spatial correction. After applying Eigenvector Spatial Filtering (ESF) to correct for spatial autocorrelation, a significant independent association is identified in wealthier neighbourhoods (N = 143; βESF = 0.176, p = 0.023) but not in the most deprived areas (N = 151; βESF = 0.028, p = 0.110). A con- founder step-through analysis reveals that barriers to healthcare services absorb the thermal failure signal in deprived areas, suggesting that healthcare access is the binding constraint on emergency COPD admissions in the most deprived neighbourhoods. ESF stability diagnostics confirm the wealthy-area coefficient is not an artefact of eigenvector overfitting. These findings are consistent with thermal failure representing a direct respiratory health stressor in areas where healthcare access is not the primary limiting factor, and are robust to a placebo outcome test using hip fracture admissions. JEL Classification: I14 , I18 , C21 , R20 Fuel poverty COPD Thermal exposure Spatial econometrics Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Housing health Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Mar, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 13 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 05 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 05 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 28 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8998145","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":606416891,"identity":"fa05fadf-8093-4191-941c-3e3aa7a1d619","order_by":0,"name":"Jules Buckland","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"University of Manchester","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jules","middleName":"","lastName":"Buckland","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-28 22:23:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8998145/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8998145/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104782909,"identity":"428b7549-9526-4bbb-a222-8be7a8f6fba7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-17 07:57:57","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1178038,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ThermalFailureandRespiratoryHealth.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8998145/v1_covered_414ce0f3-36ba-4111-899c-dd104f5ff07c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Thermal Failure and Respiratory Health: A Physics-Based Exposure Metric and the Socioeconomic Moderation of Housing-COPD Associations in Greater Manchester","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"letters-in-spatial-and-resource-sciences","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"lsrs","sideBox":"Learn more about [Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences](http://link.springer.com/journal/12076)","snPcode":"12076","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/12076/3","title":"Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Fuel poverty, COPD, Thermal exposure, Spatial econometrics, Eigenvector Spatial Filtering, Housing health","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8998145/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8998145/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis Research Note introduces Weighted Failure Hours—a physics-based thermal exposure metric—and estimates its association with emergency respiratory hos- pitalisations across 294 neighbourhoods in Greater Manchester. Weighted Failure Hours integrates dwelling-level heat loss coefficients, household income-based affordability constraints, and observed weather data to estimate the annual hours during which affordable heating is insufficient to maintain indoor temperatures above the WHO safety threshold of 12◦C. Utilizing a log-log specification with controls for outdoor air pollution (PM2.5, NO2) and barriers to healthcare, we test whether thermal failure exposure operates as an independent driver of COPD admissions after spatial correction. After applying Eigenvector Spatial Filtering (ESF) to correct for spatial autocorrelation, a significant independent association is identified in wealthier neighbourhoods (N = 143; βESF = 0.176, p = 0.023) but not in the most deprived areas (N = 151; βESF = 0.028, p = 0.110). A con- founder step-through analysis reveals that barriers to healthcare services absorb the thermal failure signal in deprived areas, suggesting that healthcare access is the binding constraint on emergency COPD admissions in the most deprived neighbourhoods. ESF stability diagnostics confirm the wealthy-area coefficient is not an artefact of eigenvector overfitting. 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