Spatiotemporal Green Canopy Dynamics and Plantation Resilience: Climate, Disease, and Yield Interactions in Rubber Ecosystems

Spatiotemporal Green Canopy Dynamics and Plantation Resilience: Climate, Disease, and Yield Interactions in Rubber Ecosystems | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Spatiotemporal Green Canopy Dynamics and Plantation Resilience: Climate, Disease, and Yield Interactions in Rubber Ecosystems Masita Dwi Mandini Manessa, Farida Ayu, Anisya Feby Efriana, Fajar Dwi Pamungkas, and 8 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6624962/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Tropical rubber plantations follow a predictable monsoon-driven cycle of leaf flush during the dry season and leaf drop with the onset of rains. Rising frequency of Pestalotiopsis fungal outbreaks and increasing climate variability are disrupting this phenology, yet the combined effects on canopy health, climate, and latex yield have not been fully quantified. This study aims to (1) map spatiotemporal trends in canopy greenness and identify zones of seasonal gains or losses, (2) quantify how Pestalotiopsis outbreaks, climate variables, and clone identity drive defoliation severity, and (3) establish the temporal lag between canopy condition and latex yield. Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 from 2017 through 2024 were processed to derive monthly green canopy cover (GCC). The Seasonal-Trend Decomposition isolated trend, seasonal, and residual signals. Seasonal Mann-Kendall tests identified areas with significant canopy changes. A linear mixed-effects model linked GCC to outbreak status, climate variables, and clone type, with block as a random effect. Cross-correlation revealed GCC increases typically preceded latex yield gains by 1–2 months. Pestalotiopsis outbreaks after 2018 caused deeper, prolonged canopy loss than natural cycles. Spatial trends showed central blocks improved, while edges declined. The model explained over 80% of GCC variation, highlighting heat stress and rainfall as key disease amplifiers. Resistant clones like RRIC 100 and IRR 112 retained canopy better, and mixed-clone plantings buffered defoliation. Results emphasize genetic diversity's role in resilience and the need for zone-specific management based on spatial canopy trends and outbreak-linked climate thresholds. Rubber canopy phenology Pestalotiopsis outbreaks Green Canopy Cover (GCC) Spatial trend analysis Latex yield lag correlation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6624962","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":457324502,"identity":"6a885b40-4044-422a-934d-3011e3201508","order_by":0,"name":"Masita Dwi Mandini 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Rising frequency of Pestalotiopsis fungal outbreaks and increasing climate variability are disrupting this phenology, yet the combined effects on canopy health, climate, and latex yield have not been fully quantified. This study aims to (1) map spatiotemporal trends in canopy greenness and identify zones of seasonal gains or losses, (2) quantify how Pestalotiopsis outbreaks, climate variables, and clone identity drive defoliation severity, and (3) establish the temporal lag between canopy condition and latex yield. Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 from 2017 through 2024 were processed to derive monthly green canopy cover (GCC). The Seasonal-Trend Decomposition isolated trend, seasonal, and residual signals. Seasonal Mann-Kendall tests identified areas with significant canopy changes. A linear mixed-effects model linked GCC to outbreak status, climate variables, and clone type, with block as a random effect. 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