Conflict, Climate Shocks, and Food Insecurity: Evidence from a Dynamic Event Study Analysis

Conflict, Climate Shocks, and Food Insecurity: Evidence from a Dynamic Event Study Analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Conflict, Climate Shocks, and Food Insecurity: Evidence from a Dynamic Event Study Analysis Tewodros Girma Gutema This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8082585/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper examines the causal impact of conflict and rainfall variability on food insecurity at the regional level in Ethiopia and determines which factor has had a greater effect since 2020. The study utilized panel data from 2010 to 2023. It employed ordered logistic regression to analyze the relationship between conflict incidents, rainfall, and food insecurity levels, classified according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). A dynamic Event Study Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach with two-way fixed effects (TWFE) was applied to investigate the causal effect and changes in food insecurity over time. Results indicated that conflict events are positively and significantly associated with higher food insecurity levels, particularly in phases 3 (food crisis) and 4 (food famine), although the relationship is nonlinear. Additionally, rainfall and global food price fluctuations are positively related to food insecurity. The DiD analysis found that regions experiencing conflict after January 2020 had, on average, 0.63 IPC units higher, or 35% more, than regions without conflict. Similarly, regions affected by rainfall shocks experienced a 0.55-unit increase in IPC; although the overall effect was not statistically significant, it was significant in certain months. Compared to the impact of conflict, rainfall shocks have a lesser effect on food insecurity. These findings were based on a unique monthly, regionally disaggregated dataset that provides insights to support humanitarian efforts in conflict-affected and drought-prone areas. JEL Classification : C33, O13, Q18, Q54 Conflict Food Insecurity IPC Classification Rainfall Variability Differences in Differences Ethiopia Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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