Assessing adaptation and migration options for global coastal farmers facing sea-level rise

Assessing adaptation and migration options for global coastal farmers facing sea-level rise | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Assessing adaptation and migration options for global coastal farmers facing sea-level rise Kushagra Pandey, Jens de Bruijn, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Hans de Moel, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7102549/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global flood and salinity risk is increasing due to sea-level rise (SLR). Farmers in coastal areas will experience this risk through rising salinity levels that reduce crop yields and direct flood damage to their property. In response, farmers can take various actions such as protecting their homes, changing cropping patterns, or migrating to safer areas if adaptation is not feasible. We developed the agent-based model (ABM) called DYNAMO-M to assess these responses and their influence on climate risk for farmers. This is a global ABM that simulates the actions of 13 million farming households based on economic decision theory across 674 coastal zones from 2015 to 2080. Results show that globally, 23 billion USD of private farming assets will be at risk annually, and coastal areas of Florida, New York, and Oregon in the United States, as well as the coasts of Spain, France in Europe, Japan, China, Indonesia, and the Philippines in Asia, Brazil and Australia will experience significant farmer outmigration to inland regions. Under the RCP4.5-SSP5 scenario, approximately 518,000 farming households are projected to migrate, with the highest numbers in East Asia and the Pacific (about 376,000 households), followed by South Asia (about 86,000 households). The highest household adaptation rates (over 40%) are observed in Indonesia, parts of Africa (e.g., Nigeria, Mozambique), Argentina, and some Mediterranean regions. However, many farmers in these areas cannot adapt due to limited income. Such budget constraints are not limited to poorer countries. The United States also shows a high percentage of households unable to afford adaptation. Our findings suggest that small government subsidies can significantly enhance the adaptive capacity of poorer households, partially offsetting migration flows and increases in climate risk. Results indicate that globally, about 15,000 fewer households migrate when provided with 30% insurance coverage. Government subsidies that reduce farmers’ adaptation costs by 30% decrease global farmer migration by up to 10% in some floodplains. These findings are useful for informing migration policies, options for managed retreat, and efforts to reduce the burden on receiving areas while supporting vulnerable, often impoverished, communities in coastal zones. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files PandeyABMsupplementary.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 26 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 23 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Aug, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 28 Jul, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 21 Jul, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 16 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 16 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7102549","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":492073340,"identity":"788fbc19-1cfd-4e4a-aa3e-e045706e7ed7","order_by":0,"name":"Kushagra Pandey","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAsklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACCTDJxsDAD2YUkKJFsgHEMCBFi8EBYrVINvAe/FxQZpO4+UaOAXMBMVqkGfiSpWecS0vcBtIygxgtcgw8BtK8bYcTt505Y8DMQ6QW49+8bf8TN/cQq0WagccMaMuBxA3sPURqkWzmS7PmOZdsPON4W8FhorRIHO89fJunzE62v5l542OeCiK0MDDzgCnHBiBxgBgNQADRYk+k6lEwCkbBKBiJAACLkSy9PsDXOwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kushagra","middleName":"","lastName":"Pandey","suffix":""},{"id":492073346,"identity":"eb7a68ed-478a-4336-89ac-ae70e1853474","order_by":1,"name":"Jens de Bruijn","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jens","middleName":"","lastName":"de Bruijn","suffix":""},{"id":492073349,"identity":"5df669e0-ec39-415a-b249-a11b5ef518af","order_by":2,"name":"W. 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Farmers in coastal areas will experience this risk through rising salinity levels that reduce crop yields and direct flood damage to their property. In response, farmers can take various actions such as protecting their homes, changing cropping patterns, or migrating to safer areas if adaptation is not feasible. We developed the agent-based model (ABM) called DYNAMO-M to assess these responses and their influence on climate risk for farmers. This is a global ABM that simulates the actions of 13\u0026nbsp;million farming households based on economic decision theory across 674 coastal zones from 2015 to 2080. Results show that globally, 23\u0026nbsp;billion USD of private farming assets will be at risk annually, and coastal areas of Florida, New York, and Oregon in the United States, as well as the coasts of Spain, France in Europe, Japan, China, Indonesia, and the Philippines in Asia, Brazil and Australia will experience significant farmer outmigration to inland regions. Under the RCP4.5-SSP5 scenario, approximately 518,000 farming households are projected to migrate, with the highest numbers in East Asia and the Pacific (about 376,000 households), followed by South Asia (about 86,000 households). The highest household adaptation rates (over 40%) are observed in Indonesia, parts of Africa (e.g., Nigeria, Mozambique), Argentina, and some Mediterranean regions. However, many farmers in these areas cannot adapt due to limited income. Such budget constraints are not limited to poorer countries. The United States also shows a high percentage of households unable to afford adaptation. Our findings suggest that small government subsidies can significantly enhance the adaptive capacity of poorer households, partially offsetting migration flows and increases in climate risk. Results indicate that globally, about 15,000 fewer households migrate when provided with 30% insurance coverage. Government subsidies that reduce farmers\u0026rsquo; adaptation costs by 30% decrease global farmer migration by up to 10% in some floodplains. These findings are useful for informing migration policies, options for managed retreat, and efforts to reduce the burden on receiving areas while supporting vulnerable, often impoverished, communities in coastal zones.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Assessing adaptation and migration options for global coastal farmers facing sea-level rise","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-08-01 12:30:41","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7102549/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-26T10:50:37+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"301477676459808842139953304066804028272","date":"2026-04-05T21:32:13+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"84197908549041949545503553124783971966","date":"2026-02-15T11:54:22+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"132502889411026250104115777442926050348","date":"2025-09-29T15:47:38+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-09-23T12:39:04+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"49968475125295939778622301140894042890","date":"2025-09-11T10:42:29+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"150429213835600481240101770169832824910","date":"2025-08-11T20:10:14+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-07-28T14:20:25+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-07-21T14:33:26+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-07-16T10:50:31+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2025-07-16T09:18:47+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"85ce1345-4bd7-49bd-882f-361081e5b8ca","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 1st, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":52244178,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences"},{"id":52244179,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"},{"id":52244180,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences"},{"id":52244181,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-08-01T12:30:41+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-08-01 12:30:41","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7102549","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7102549","identity":"rs-7102549","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}