Urban Expansion and Thermal Vulnerability in a Himalayan Foothill City: Evidence from Abbottabad, Pakistan

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This study investigates the relationship between urban expansion, land-use/land-cover (LULC) change, and perceived thermal stress in Abbottabad, Pakistan, a rapidly urbanizing hilly city that has experienced substantial demographic and spatial growth during the past two decades. A mixed-method approach integrating remote sensing analysis and questionnaire-based survey data was employed to examine the drivers and perceived impacts of UHI within the study area. Landsat imagery acquired for 2000, 2010, and 2020 was analyzed using supervised maximum likelihood classification to quantify changes in built-up and non-built-up land cover. The results indicate a substantial increase in built-up area, which expanded from 17.57% in 2000 to 43.65% in 2020, accompanied by a spatial intensification of land surface temperature across the urban core. Survey findings further suggest that respondents primarily associated increasing urban heat with traffic growth, urban sprawl, vegetation loss, and rising energy consumption. Perceived impacts reported by respondents included declining thermal comfort, changes in lifestyle patterns, and deterioration in local environmental conditions. The findings underscore the increasing climatic vulnerability of rapidly urbanizing hilly cities and highlight the importance of climate-responsive urban planning, controlled land-use expansion, and urban greening interventions for mitigating future thermal stress. Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 1. Introduction Rapid urbanization has emerged as a defining driver of socioecological transformation across the Global South, where urban growth increasingly unfolds through fragmented planning regimes, weak environmental governance, and accelerated land conversion. Within this context, the expansion of impervious built surfaces and the progressive decline of vegetative land cover have substantially altered urban thermal environments, intensifying the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in rapidly transforming cities [1]. The interaction between urbanization and climate change has consequently positioned urban heat as a critical planning and environmental governance challenge, particularly in cities characterized by ecological sensitivity, infrastructural limitations, and growing climate vulnerability [2]. Beyond its biophysical dimensions, urban heat increasingly intersects with questions of environmental justice, thermal comfort, public health, and urban resilience, thereby extending UHI from a climatological concern to a broader urban planning issue. A substantial body of research has demonstrated that urban thermal intensification is closely linked to land use and land cover (LULC) transformation associated with rapid urban expansion. The replacement of vegetated and permeable surfaces by dense built environments modifies surface energy balances through increased heat absorption, reduced evapotranspiration, and declining surface permeability, ultimately amplifying near surface temperatures within urban regions [3]. These processes are frequently reinforced through patterns of dispersed and poorly regulated urban growth, including urban sprawl, increasing automobile dependency, and expanding commercial and residential infrastructure [4, 5]. As a consequence, UHI effects have become increasingly associated with deteriorating environmental quality, rising energy consumption, compromised thermal comfort, and heightened exposure to extreme heat events [6, 7]. Remote sensing and geospatial approaches have therefore become central to contemporary urban climate research, particularly for examining the spatial and temporal relationship between urban growth and thermal transformation. Despite the growing sophistication of urban climate scholarship, existing research remains disproportionately concentrated on large metropolitan regions and relatively homogeneous lowland urban environments. Comparatively limited attention has been directed toward intermediate and mountainous cities, particularly within South Asia, where rapid urbanization is increasingly occurring within ecologically fragile and topographically constrained landscapes. This omission is significant because hilly urban regions possess distinct environmental and spatial characteristics, including constrained urban expansion, complex terrain morphology, fragmented ecological systems, and sensitive microclimatic conditions, all of which may shape urban thermal processes differently from conventional metropolitan settings. Moreover, many secondary cities in developing countries are currently undergoing accelerated demographic and spatial restructuring without corresponding advances in climate responsive planning or environmental management, thereby increasing their exposure to thermal and ecological risks. In Pakistan, these dynamics are especially evident in rapidly urbanizing secondary cities where urban growth has intensified over the past two decades. Abbottabad, a mountainous city located in northern Pakistan, represents a particularly important case in this regard. Following the 2005 earthquake, the city experienced accelerated migration, land conversion, commercial expansion, and residential development, contributing to substantial changes in urban morphology and land cover composition. The increasing transformation of vegetated and open land into built up surfaces, combined with rising traffic intensity and expanding anthropogenic activity, has generated growing concerns regarding environmental degradation and urban thermal stress within the city. Nevertheless, empirical research examining the relationship between urban expansion, land transformation, and perceived thermal vulnerability in Abbottabad remains limited despite the city’s increasing environmental sensitivity and strategic regional importance. Against this backdrop, the present study investigates the occurrence and perceived impacts of UHI effects in Abbottabad through an integrated assessment of land use transformation and residents’ perceptions of urban thermal change. Using supervised classification of Landsat imagery acquired between 2000 and 2020 alongside questionnaire-based survey data, the study examines the extent of urban expansion and explores the perceived drivers and implications of increasing urban heat within the city. By focusing on a rapidly urbanizing hilly city, the study contributes to emerging debates on climate vulnerability, socioecological urban transformation, and environmental change in secondary cities of the Global South. In doing so, it underscores the importance of climate responsive planning, sustainable land management, and urban ecological governance in environmentally sensitive mountain urban regions undergoing rapid spatial transformation. 2. Methodology 2.1. Study Area The present study was conducted in Abbottabad, a mountainous city located in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of northern Pakistan. The city lies between 33°50′ and 34°23′ N latitude and 73°35′ and 73°31′ E longitude at an average elevation of approximately 1225 m above sea level and covers an area of approximately 1,967 km². Abbottabad is characterized by a mountainous terrain surrounded by elevations ranging between 2500 m and 2700 m [8]. Owing to its topographic setting, ecological sensitivity, and expanding urban footprint, the city represents an important case for examining the relationship between urban expansion and thermal environmental change in hilly urban regions. During the past two decades, Abbottabad has experienced substantial demographic and spatial growth, particularly following the 2005 earthquake, which accelerated migration and urban development within the region. The increasing conversion of vegetated and open land into built up surfaces, combined with rising commercial activity and traffic intensity, has contributed to growing environmental pressures, including urban expansion, vegetation loss, and increasing thermal stress. 2.2. Research Design The study adopted a mixed method approach integrating remote sensing analysis with questionnaire-based survey data to examine land transformation and residents’ perceptions regarding the causes and impacts of urban heat island effects in Abbottabad. The integration of geospatial analysis and perception-based assessment enabled the study to examine both the spatial manifestation of urban expansion and the perceived environmental implications associated with increasing urban heat. Primary data were collected through questionnaire surveys and interviews conducted among residents of the study area. Respondents from different age groups and occupational backgrounds were included in the survey to capture diverse perceptions regarding urban heat, environmental change, and urban expansion within the city. 2.3. Remote Sensing and Land Use Analysis Remote sensing analysis was conducted using Landsat imagery acquired from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. The analysis was performed to examine temporal changes in land use and land cover patterns within the study area. Supervised maximum likelihood classification was employed to classify land cover into two primary categories: built up and non built up areas. Representative training samples were selected for each land cover category based on the spectral characteristics of the imagery. Training polygons were developed to ensure that selected pixels adequately represented the dominant land cover classes across the study area. The classification process assigned individual pixels to the class with the highest statistical probability based on spectral similarity. Pixels falling below the specified probability threshold were categorized as unclassified. The classified imagery was subsequently used to examine the spatial expansion of built-up land and changes in land cover patterns between 2000 and 2020. In addition, land surface temperature patterns derived from Landsat imagery were analyzed to examine the spatial distribution of urban thermal intensity within the study area. 2.4. Questionnaire Survey Questionnaire surveys were conducted to examine residents’ perceptions regarding the drivers and impacts of urban heat island effects in Abbottabad. The survey instrument included questions related to traffic intensity, urban sprawl, climate change and pollution, energy consumption, and construction activities as perceived contributors to increasing urban heat. Additional questions examined the perceived impacts of increasing temperatures on lifestyle, environmental conditions, thermal comfort, and health related concerns. Survey responses were collected through online forms, questionnaires, and interviews. Descriptive analysis was subsequently performed to examine response patterns and evaluate the relative importance assigned by respondents to different drivers and impacts associated with urban heat island effects. 2.5. Composite Indices and Data Analysis To facilitate interpretation of questionnaire responses, related indicators were grouped into thematic composite indices representing the perceived causes and impacts of urban heat island effects within the study area. The cause related indicators were organized into five subindices comprising traffic related factors (C1), urban sprawl (C2), climate change and pollution (C3), increase in energy consumption (C4), and construction related activities (C5). These categories were developed to examine the relative importance assigned by respondents to different urban and environmental processes associated with increasing urban heat in Abbottabad. Similarly, indicators related to the perceived impacts of urban heat were grouped into four thematic subindices consisting of psychological and health related effects (E1), lifestyle related changes (E2), weather and air quality related impacts (E3), and construction related impacts and insulation responses (E4). The grouping of indicators into thematic categories enabled a more structured assessment of residents’ perceptions regarding the environmental and socio spatial implications of increasing urban temperatures within the city. The composite indices were calculated using the arithmetic mean of the indicators included within each category according to the following expression: $$\:C=\frac{\sum\:{X}_{i}}{N}$$ where \(\:C\) represents the composite subindex, \(\:{X}_{i}\) represents the individual indicators included within a category, and \(\:N\) represents the total number of indicators used in the respective index group. The same approach was applied for both cause related and impact related indices in order to examine the relative prominence of different dimensions associated with urban heat island effects in the study area. 3. Results 3.1. Urban Expansion and Land Transformation The classification analysis revealed substantial land transformation within Abbottabad between 2000 and 2020, reflecting the rapid spatial expansion of the city over the past two decades. Supervised maximum likelihood classification of Landsat imagery demonstrated a continuous increase in built up land throughout the study period. In 2000, built up surfaces accounted for 17.57% of the total study area, while non built up land represented 82.43%. By 2010, built up land had increased to 38%, indicating a rapid phase of urban expansion within a single decade. The trend continued in 2020, when built up surfaces accounted for 43.65% of the study area, while non built up land declined to 56.35% (Fig. 2 ). The temporal pattern of land transformation indicates a substantial restructuring of Abbottabad’s urban landscape characterized by outward urban expansion and increasing densification of the urban core. The observed conversion of vegetated and open land into residential, commercial, and infrastructural surfaces reflects the growing spatial footprint of the city and increasing pressure on previously non urban land. The scale of built up expansion identified during the study period suggests that urban growth in Abbottabad has accelerated considerably during the post 2000 period. 3.2. Thermal Intensification of the Urban Landscape Land surface temperature analysis revealed a progressive intensification and spatial expansion of elevated thermal zones across Abbottabad between 2000 and 2020. In 2000, lower temperature zones ranging between 20°C and 25°C dominated much of the study area, while localized high temperature zones ranged between 28°C and 35°C and remained primarily concentrated within built up portions of the urban core. The 2010 analysis demonstrated a noticeable increase in thermal intensity and spatial distribution of elevated temperature zones throughout the city. Lower temperature ranges increased to approximately 27°C to 30°C, while several urban sections recorded temperatures exceeding 33°C. Compared with the 2000 imagery, elevated thermal zones expanded considerably during this period, indicating a marked transformation in the thermal structure of the urban environment. 3.3. Demographic Characteristics of Respondents A total of 386 respondents participated in the questionnaire survey. The majority of respondents belonged to the 21 to 30 year age group (74.4%), followed by respondents below 21 years of age (18.9%). Male respondents constituted 60.4% of the survey population, while female respondents represented 39.6%. In terms of occupational background, 38.1% of respondents were privately employed, 20.7% were government employees, 35% were students, and 6.2% were homemakers. Educationally, most respondents possessed graduate level education (51%), followed by intermediate education (28.5%), postgraduate education (14.8%), and secondary school education (5.7%). Table 1 Demographic profile of respondents Age Values Frequency Percentage age less than 21 73 18.9 age between 21 to 30 287 74.4 age between 31 to 40 21 5.4 age above 41 5 1.3 Gender Male 233 60.4 Female 153 39.6 Occupation Government Employed 80 20.7 Private Employed 147 38.1 Student 135 35.0 Housewife 24 6.2 Education Secondary School 22 5.7 Intermediate Education 110 28.5 Graduate 197 51.0 Post graduate and above 57 14.8 Overall, the demographic composition of the survey reflects comparatively greater participation among younger and educated urban residents residing within the study area. 3.4. Perceived Drivers of Urban Heat Island Effects Survey findings indicate that respondents strongly associated increasing urban heat with processes linked to rapid urbanization, environmental degradation, and expanding urban activity within Abbottabad. Urban sprawl emerged as one of the most significant perceived contributors to urban heat island formation, with all respondents identifying it as having either medium or high influence. Respondents consistently associated increasing urban heat with population growth, migration, vegetation loss, expanding commercial activity, and insufficient urban planning. Traffic related factors were similarly identified as major contributors to increasing urban temperatures. More than 95% of respondents perceived traffic related processes as having medium to high influence on urban heat formation. Respondents frequently associated increasing traffic congestion, expanding road infrastructure, automobile dependency, and traffic related emissions with changing thermal conditions within the city. Climate change and pollution related factors were also widely perceived as major contributors to increasing urban heat. A substantial proportion of respondents identified rising temperatures, air pollution, solid waste pollution, and environmental degradation as strongly associated with increasing thermal stress within the urban environment. Similarly, respondents perceived increasing energy consumption and expanding construction activity as contributing factors associated with changing urban thermal conditions. Overall, the findings suggest that residents perceive increasing urban heat not as an isolated environmental issue, but rather as part of a broader process of urban transformation involving rapid land conversion, environmental degradation, expanding infrastructure, and changing urban lifestyles. 3.5. Perceived Impacts of Urban Heat Island Effects Respondents further associated increasing urban temperatures with a range of perceived environmental, wellbeing related, and lifestyle related impacts. Perceived health and wellbeing related impacts emerged as one of the dominant dimensions identified in the survey, with more than half of respondents indicating high levels of impact associated with increasing urban temperatures. Respondents frequently associated increasing heat with thermal discomfort, changes in sleeping patterns, dehydration, respiratory distress, and declining everyday comfort within the urban environment. Lifestyle related impacts were also widely identified among respondents. Nearly half of the respondents perceived increasing temperatures as having substantial influence on living practices, clothing preferences, and household cooling behavior. Respondents further indicated that changing thermal conditions were increasingly affecting everyday routines and adaptation practices within the city. Environmental impacts associated with urban heat were similarly emphasized by respondents. A large proportion of participants perceived deteriorating air quality, increasing surface temperatures, and changing rainfall patterns as major consequences associated with increasing urban heat within Abbottabad. Construction related adaptation responses were also evident, particularly in relation to changing roofing materials, insulation practices, and housing related modifications intended to reduce thermal exposure. Taken together, the findings indicate that urban heat island effects in Abbottabad are increasingly experienced as a multidimensional urban environmental issue linked to rapid urban expansion, changing land use patterns, and shifting urban living conditions. 4. Discussion 4.1. Urban Expansion and Thermal Transformation The findings demonstrate substantial transformation of Abbottabad’s urban landscape between 2000 and 2020, characterized by rapid expansion of built up land and increasing thermal intensity across the city. The proportion of built up surfaces increased from 17.57% in 2000 to 43.65% in 2020, while land surface temperature analysis revealed a progressive expansion of elevated thermal zones throughout the study area. The spatial correspondence observed between increasing built up surfaces and expanding thermal intensity suggests that recent urban growth has significantly altered the thermal characteristics of Abbottabad’s urban environment. These findings are consistent with existing urban climate research demonstrating that land use and land cover transformation associated with urbanization plays a central role in intensifying urban heat island effects through increased heat absorption, declining evapotranspiration, and reduced surface permeability [1, 9]. Previous studies have similarly shown that impervious surfaces and dense urban development contribute significantly to increasing land surface temperatures, whereas vegetated surfaces may reduce thermal intensity through surface cooling effects [10, 11]. The observed decline in non built up land within Abbottabad therefore reflects broader urban environmental transformations commonly associated with rapidly urbanizing cities in developing regions. The findings are particularly significant in the context of Abbottabad because the city represents a rapidly urbanizing mountainous settlement where topographic sensitivity and ecological fragility may intensify the environmental implications of unregulated urban expansion. Existing urban heat island scholarship has largely focused on major metropolitan regions situated within relatively homogeneous lowland terrain, while comparatively limited attention has been directed toward secondary and hilly cities undergoing accelerated spatial transformation. In environmentally sensitive mountain cities, expanding built surfaces, vegetation loss, and constrained urban morphology may increase vulnerability to thermal stress and ecological degradation in distinct ways. The transformation observed in Abbottabad’s urban landscape also reflects broader processes of post disaster urban restructuring within the region. Following the 2005 earthquake, the city experienced accelerated migration, residential development, commercial expansion, and increasing infrastructural activity, all of which contributed to expanding pressure on previously vegetated and open land. The resulting expansion of built surfaces appears to have reshaped not only the physical morphology of the city but also its thermal environment. 4.2 Perceived Drivers of Urban Heat Island Effects Survey findings indicate that respondents strongly associated increasing urban heat with processes linked to rapid urbanization, environmental degradation, and changing patterns of urban activity. Urban sprawl emerged as one of the most significant perceived contributors to urban heat island formation, with all respondents identifying it as having either medium or high influence. Traffic related factors were similarly perceived as major contributors to increasing urban temperatures, while climate change and pollution related processes were also widely identified as highly influential dimensions associated with increasing urban heat. These findings align with broader urban climate literature linking dispersed urban expansion, increasing automobile dependency, vegetation loss, and anthropogenic activity with thermal intensification in rapidly growing cities [4, 5]. Previous studies have similarly emphasized the contribution of impervious surfaces, traffic related emissions, and declining urban vegetation to increasing urban heat exposure and deteriorating environmental conditions within expanding urban regions. The findings further suggest that residents perceive thermal intensification not as an isolated climatic phenomenon, but rather as part of a broader process of sociospatial and environmental transformation involving migration, changing land use patterns, expanding infrastructure, and declining ecological quality within the city. Respondents consistently associated increasing temperatures with visible changes in the urban environment, particularly deforestation, increasing traffic congestion, and expanding construction activity. These perceptions reflect growing public awareness regarding the environmental consequences of rapid and insufficiently regulated urban expansion in Abbottabad. The strong emphasis placed by respondents on urban sprawl and traffic related growth further highlights the importance of integrating urban climate concerns into land use planning and transportation policy in rapidly growing secondary cities. In contexts where urban expansion occurs more rapidly than planning and environmental management capacity, thermal vulnerability may increasingly emerge as both an environmental and governance challenge. 4.3. Perceived Impacts of Increasing Urban Heat The findings further indicate that respondents associated increasing urban temperatures with a range of perceived environmental, lifestyle related, and wellbeing related impacts. Perceived health and wellbeing related impacts emerged as one of the dominant dimensions identified within the survey, with respondents frequently associating increasing urban heat with thermal discomfort, changes in sleeping patterns, dehydration, respiratory distress, and declining everyday comfort within the urban environment. Although these findings represent residents’ perceptions rather than clinically measured outcomes, they nevertheless reflect increasing public concern regarding the implications of rising urban temperatures for urban living conditions. Previous studies have similarly demonstrated that increasing urban heat exposure may influence thermal comfort, public wellbeing, energy demand, and everyday urban experience, particularly during periods of prolonged heat stress and intensified urban warming [6, 12]. Research has also shown that the interaction between urban heat island effects and broader climatic warming may amplify thermal exposure within rapidly urbanizing regions, particularly where urban morphology and environmental degradation reduce adaptive capacity. Lifestyle related changes were also widely identified by respondents, particularly in relation to household cooling practices, clothing preferences, and changing patterns of everyday living. Respondents additionally perceived significant changes in local environmental conditions, including deteriorating air quality, increasing surface temperatures, and changing rainfall patterns. Construction related adaptation responses, including increasing emphasis on insulation and changing roofing materials, further suggest that residents increasingly perceive urban heat as influencing housing and built environment practices within Abbottabad. Taken together, the findings indicate that urban heat island effects in Abbottabad are increasingly experienced not only as an environmental issue but also as a sociospatial and planning challenge associated with rapid urban transformation and changing urban living conditions. The integration of remote sensing analysis and residents’ perceptions therefore highlights the interconnected relationship between urban expansion, environmental change, and perceived thermal vulnerability within a rapidly urbanizing mountainous city. 5. Conclusion and Planning Implications This study examined the relationship between urban expansion, land transformation, and perceived urban heat island effects in Abbottabad, a rapidly urbanizing mountainous city in northern Pakistan. The findings revealed substantial land use and land cover transformation between 2000 and 2020, characterized by a major increase in built up surfaces and a corresponding expansion of elevated land surface temperature zones across the urban landscape. The results further indicated that residents strongly associated increasing urban heat with processes linked to rapid urbanization, including urban sprawl, traffic growth, vegetation loss, and expanding construction activity. The findings suggest that ongoing urban transformation in Abbottabad is reshaping not only the physical structure of the city but also its thermal and environmental conditions. In particular, the expansion of built surfaces following accelerated post 2005 urban growth appears to have intensified thermal exposure within the urban environment. Given the ecological sensitivity and topographic constraints of mountainous cities, the implications of unregulated urban expansion may be especially significant in such regions. Beyond its environmental dimensions, the study indicates that urban heat is increasingly experienced by residents as a sociospatial and lifestyle related challenge associated with changing living conditions, declining environmental quality, and increasing thermal discomfort. The findings therefore reinforce the importance of integrating climate responsive planning approaches into the development and management of rapidly urbanizing secondary cities. From a planning perspective, the study highlights the need for more environmentally sensitive urban development strategies, including protection of vegetated land, improved land use management, and greater consideration of urban ecological processes within planning policy and infrastructure development. In rapidly growing mountain cities such as Abbottabad, urban climate considerations should be incorporated more explicitly into future planning and development frameworks in order to reduce long term heat vulnerability and environmental stress. The study is subject to certain limitations. The questionnaire component reflects residents’ perceptions regarding the drivers and impacts of urban heat rather than clinically or experimentally measured outcomes. Similarly, the remote sensing analysis was limited to broad land cover classification and land surface temperature assessment derived from Landsat imagery. Future research may therefore benefit from incorporating higher resolution thermal data, advanced spatial analysis, and longitudinal climatic observations to further examine the dynamics of urban heat in rapidly urbanizing mountainous environments. Declarations Author Contribution S.U.S. conceived and designed the study, conducted the remote sensing and spatial analysis, performed data interpretation, and prepared the original manuscript draft. M.S. contributed to the conceptual development of the research, questionnaire design, interpretation of findings, and critical revision and editing of the manuscript. Both authors reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript. Data Availability The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Landsat imagery used in this study was obtained from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) EarthExplorer platform. Ethics Approval Statement: This study was conducted in accordance with institutional ethical guidelines and was approved by the National University of Science and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan. Participant Consent Statement: Informed consent was obtained from all participants involved in the study prior to participation. References Voogt, J.A. and T.R. Oke, Thermal remote sensing of urban climates. Remote sensing of environment, 2003. 86 (3): p. 370-384. Phelan, P.E., et al., Urban heat island: mechanisms, implications, and possible remedies. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2015. 40 : p. 285-307. Scheuer, S., D. Haase, and M. Volk, Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research. PLoS One, 2017. 12 (12): p. e0189451. Bhatta, B., S. Saraswati, and D. Bandyopadhyay, Urban sprawl measurement from remote sensing data. Applied geography, 2010. 30 (4): p. 731-740. Karakayaci, Z., The concept of urban sprawl and its causes. Journal of International Social Research, 2016. 9 (45). Hintz, M.J., et al., Facing the heat: A systematic literature review exploring the transferability of solutions to cope with urban heat waves. Urban climate, 2018. 24 : p. 714-727. Estoque, R.C., et al., Heat health risk assessment in Philippine cities using remotely sensed data and social-ecological indicators. Nature communications, 2020. 11 (1): p. 1-12. IUCN Pakistan, I., Abbottabad—State of the Environment and Development. IUCN Pakistan and NWFP: Karachi, Pakistan. xii þ136 pp, 2004. Aneesh, M., K. Sumit, and K. Nivedita, Spatial and temporal variations of urban heat island effect and the effect of percentage impervious surface area and elevation on land surface temperature: Study of Chandigarh city, India. Sustainable Cities and Society, 2016. 26 : p. 264-277. Zhou, W., et al., Relationships between land cover and the surface urban heat island: Seasonal variability and effects of spatial and thematic resolution of land cover data on predicting land surface temperatures. Landscape Ecology, 2014. 29 . Hua, L., et al., The Impacts of the Expansion of Urban Impervious Surfaces on Urban Heat Islands in a Coastal City in China. Sustainability, 2020. 12 (2): p. 475. Li, D. and E. Bou-Zeid, Synergistic Interactions between Urban Heat Islands and Heat Waves: The Impact in Cities Is Larger than the Sum of Its Parts. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2013. 52 (9): p. 2051-2064. Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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\u003c/strong\u003esection.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"un1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9656288/v1/862cf4dd78e4c46626e20abf.jpg"},{"id":109113540,"identity":"8bf468f4-e6ed-4b1b-8a16-3c1a021b2d99","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-12 16:01:39","extension":"jpg","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":69594,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eUnnumbered image in the Methodology\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003esection.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"un2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9656288/v1/ac3b08f338429e8a6eaf012f.jpg"},{"id":109207837,"identity":"d7d1e09b-bc9a-41cb-ab78-5c09e360bcd5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-13 15:22:02","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":826832,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9656288/v1/239f4d5d-caaf-41d6-ba4f-cc62b324b63b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Urban Expansion and Thermal Vulnerability in a Himalayan Foothill City: Evidence from Abbottabad, Pakistan","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eRapid urbanization has emerged as a defining driver of socioecological transformation across the Global South, where urban growth increasingly unfolds through fragmented planning regimes, weak environmental governance, and accelerated land conversion. Within this context, the expansion of impervious built surfaces and the progressive decline of vegetative land cover have substantially altered urban thermal environments, intensifying the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in rapidly transforming cities [1]. The interaction between urbanization and climate change has consequently positioned urban heat as a critical planning and environmental governance challenge, particularly in cities characterized by ecological sensitivity, infrastructural limitations, and growing climate vulnerability [2]. Beyond its biophysical dimensions, urban heat increasingly intersects with questions of environmental justice, thermal comfort, public health, and urban resilience, thereby extending UHI from a climatological concern to a broader urban planning issue.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA substantial body of research has demonstrated that urban thermal intensification is closely linked to land use and land cover (LULC) transformation associated with rapid urban expansion. The replacement of vegetated and permeable surfaces by dense built environments modifies surface energy balances through increased heat absorption, reduced evapotranspiration, and declining surface permeability, ultimately amplifying near surface temperatures within urban regions [3]. These processes are frequently reinforced through patterns of dispersed and poorly regulated urban growth, including urban sprawl, increasing automobile dependency, and expanding commercial and residential infrastructure [4, 5]. As a consequence, UHI effects have become increasingly associated with deteriorating environmental quality, rising energy consumption, compromised thermal comfort, and heightened exposure to extreme heat events [6, 7]. Remote sensing and geospatial approaches have therefore become central to contemporary urban climate research, particularly for examining the spatial and temporal relationship between urban growth and thermal transformation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDespite the growing sophistication of urban climate scholarship, existing research remains disproportionately concentrated on large metropolitan regions and relatively homogeneous lowland urban environments. Comparatively limited attention has been directed toward intermediate and mountainous cities, particularly within South Asia, where rapid urbanization is increasingly occurring within ecologically fragile and topographically constrained landscapes. This omission is significant because hilly urban regions possess distinct environmental and spatial characteristics, including constrained urban expansion, complex terrain morphology, fragmented ecological systems, and sensitive microclimatic conditions, all of which may shape urban thermal processes differently from conventional metropolitan settings. Moreover, many secondary cities in developing countries are currently undergoing accelerated demographic and spatial restructuring without corresponding advances in climate responsive planning or environmental management, thereby increasing their exposure to thermal and ecological risks.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Pakistan, these dynamics are especially evident in rapidly urbanizing secondary cities where urban growth has intensified over the past two decades. Abbottabad, a mountainous city located in northern Pakistan, represents a particularly important case in this regard. Following the 2005 earthquake, the city experienced accelerated migration, land conversion, commercial expansion, and residential development, contributing to substantial changes in urban morphology and land cover composition. The increasing transformation of vegetated and open land into built up surfaces, combined with rising traffic intensity and expanding anthropogenic activity, has generated growing concerns regarding environmental degradation and urban thermal stress within the city. Nevertheless, empirical research examining the relationship between urban expansion, land transformation, and perceived thermal vulnerability in Abbottabad remains limited despite the city\u0026rsquo;s increasing environmental sensitivity and strategic regional importance.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAgainst this backdrop, the present study investigates the occurrence and perceived impacts of UHI effects in Abbottabad through an integrated assessment of land use transformation and residents\u0026rsquo; perceptions of urban thermal change. Using supervised classification of Landsat imagery acquired between 2000 and 2020 alongside questionnaire-based survey data, the study examines the extent of urban expansion and explores the perceived drivers and implications of increasing urban heat within the city. By focusing on a rapidly urbanizing hilly city, the study contributes to emerging debates on climate vulnerability, socioecological urban transformation, and environmental change in secondary cities of the Global South. In doing so, it underscores the importance of climate responsive planning, sustainable land management, and urban ecological governance in environmentally sensitive mountain urban regions undergoing rapid spatial transformation.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Methodology","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.1. Study Area\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe present study was conducted in Abbottabad, a mountainous city located in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of northern Pakistan. The city lies between 33\u0026deg;50\u0026prime; and 34\u0026deg;23\u0026prime; N latitude and 73\u0026deg;35\u0026prime; and 73\u0026deg;31\u0026prime; E longitude at an average elevation of approximately 1225 m above sea level and covers an area of approximately 1,967 km\u0026sup2;. Abbottabad is characterized by a mountainous terrain surrounded by elevations ranging between 2500 m and 2700 m [8]. Owing to its topographic setting, ecological sensitivity, and expanding urban footprint, the city represents an important case for examining the relationship between urban expansion and thermal environmental change in hilly urban regions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDuring the past two decades, Abbottabad has experienced substantial demographic and spatial growth, particularly following the 2005 earthquake, which accelerated migration and urban development within the region. The increasing conversion of vegetated and open land into built up surfaces, combined with rising commercial activity and traffic intensity, has contributed to growing environmental pressures, including urban expansion, vegetation loss, and increasing thermal stress.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.2. Research Design\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe study adopted a mixed method approach integrating remote sensing analysis with questionnaire-based survey data to examine land transformation and residents\u0026rsquo; perceptions regarding the causes and impacts of urban heat island effects in Abbottabad. The integration of geospatial analysis and perception-based assessment enabled the study to examine both the spatial manifestation of urban expansion and the perceived environmental implications associated with increasing urban heat.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrimary data were collected through questionnaire surveys and interviews conducted among residents of the study area. Respondents from different age groups and occupational backgrounds were included in the survey to capture diverse perceptions regarding urban heat, environmental change, and urban expansion within the city.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.3. Remote Sensing and Land Use Analysis\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eRemote sensing analysis was conducted using Landsat imagery acquired from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. The analysis was performed to examine temporal changes in land use and land cover patterns within the study area. Supervised maximum likelihood classification was employed to classify land cover into two primary categories: built up and non built up areas.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRepresentative training samples were selected for each land cover category based on the spectral characteristics of the imagery. Training polygons were developed to ensure that selected pixels adequately represented the dominant land cover classes across the study area. The classification process assigned individual pixels to the class with the highest statistical probability based on spectral similarity. Pixels falling below the specified probability threshold were categorized as unclassified.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe classified imagery was subsequently used to examine the spatial expansion of built-up land and changes in land cover patterns between 2000 and 2020. In addition, land surface temperature patterns derived from Landsat imagery were analyzed to examine the spatial distribution of urban thermal intensity within the study area.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.4. Questionnaire Survey\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestionnaire surveys were conducted to examine residents\u0026rsquo; perceptions regarding the drivers and impacts of urban heat island effects in Abbottabad. The survey instrument included questions related to traffic intensity, urban sprawl, climate change and pollution, energy consumption, and construction activities as perceived contributors to increasing urban heat. Additional questions examined the perceived impacts of increasing temperatures on lifestyle, environmental conditions, thermal comfort, and health related concerns.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSurvey responses were collected through online forms, questionnaires, and interviews. Descriptive analysis was subsequently performed to examine response patterns and evaluate the relative importance assigned by respondents to different drivers and impacts associated with urban heat island effects.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.5. Composite Indices and Data Analysis\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo facilitate interpretation of questionnaire responses, related indicators were grouped into thematic composite indices representing the perceived causes and impacts of urban heat island effects within the study area. The cause related indicators were organized into five subindices comprising traffic related factors (C1), urban sprawl (C2), climate change and pollution (C3), increase in energy consumption (C4), and construction related activities (C5). These categories were developed to examine the relative importance assigned by respondents to different urban and environmental processes associated with increasing urban heat in Abbottabad.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimilarly, indicators related to the perceived impacts of urban heat were grouped into four thematic subindices consisting of psychological and health related effects (E1), lifestyle related changes (E2), weather and air quality related impacts (E3), and construction related impacts and insulation responses (E4). The grouping of indicators into thematic categories enabled a more structured assessment of residents\u0026rsquo; perceptions regarding the environmental and socio spatial implications of increasing urban temperatures within the city.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe composite indices were calculated using the arithmetic mean of the indicators included within each category according to the following expression:\u003cdiv id=\"Equa\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cdiv format=\"TEX\" class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equa\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e\n$$\\:C=\\frac{\\sum\\:{X}_{i}}{N}$$\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ewhere \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:C\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003erepresents the composite subindex, \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{X}_{i}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003erepresents the individual indicators included within a category, and \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:N\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003erepresents the total number of indicators used in the respective index group. The same approach was applied for both cause related and impact related indices in order to examine the relative prominence of different dimensions associated with urban heat island effects in the study area.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. Results","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.1. Urban Expansion and Land Transformation\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe classification analysis revealed substantial land transformation within Abbottabad between 2000 and 2020, reflecting the rapid spatial expansion of the city over the past two decades. Supervised maximum likelihood classification of Landsat imagery demonstrated a continuous increase in built up land throughout the study period. In 2000, built up surfaces accounted for 17.57% of the total study area, while non built up land represented 82.43%. By 2010, built up land had increased to 38%, indicating a rapid phase of urban expansion within a single decade. The trend continued in 2020, when built up surfaces accounted for 43.65% of the study area, while non built up land declined to 56.35% (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe temporal pattern of land transformation indicates a substantial restructuring of Abbottabad\u0026rsquo;s urban landscape characterized by outward urban expansion and increasing densification of the urban core. The observed conversion of vegetated and open land into residential, commercial, and infrastructural surfaces reflects the growing spatial footprint of the city and increasing pressure on previously non urban land. The scale of built up expansion identified during the study period suggests that urban growth in Abbottabad has accelerated considerably during the post 2000 period.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec10\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.2. Thermal Intensification of the Urban Landscape\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eLand surface temperature analysis revealed a progressive intensification and spatial expansion of elevated thermal zones across Abbottabad between 2000 and 2020. In 2000, lower temperature zones ranging between 20\u0026deg;C and 25\u0026deg;C dominated much of the study area, while localized high temperature zones ranged between 28\u0026deg;C and 35\u0026deg;C and remained primarily concentrated within built up portions of the urban core.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe 2010 analysis demonstrated a noticeable increase in thermal intensity and spatial distribution of elevated temperature zones throughout the city. Lower temperature ranges increased to approximately 27\u0026deg;C to 30\u0026deg;C, while several urban sections recorded temperatures exceeding 33\u0026deg;C. Compared with the 2000 imagery, elevated thermal zones expanded considerably during this period, indicating a marked transformation in the thermal structure of the urban environment.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.3. Demographic Characteristics of Respondents\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eA total of 386 respondents participated in the questionnaire survey. The majority of respondents belonged to the 21 to 30 year age group (74.4%), followed by respondents below 21 years of age (18.9%). Male respondents constituted 60.4% of the survey population, while female respondents represented 39.6%. In terms of occupational background, 38.1% of respondents were privately employed, 20.7% were government employees, 35% were students, and 6.2% were homemakers. Educationally, most respondents possessed graduate level education (51%), followed by intermediate education (28.5%), postgraduate education (14.8%), and secondary school education (5.7%).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDemographic profile of respondents\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"4\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAge\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eValues\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrequency\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePercentage\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eage less than 21\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e73\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.9\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eage between 21 to 30\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e287\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e74.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eage between 31 to 40\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e21\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eage above 41\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eGender\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMale\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e233\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e60.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eFemale\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e153\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e39.6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eOccupation\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eGovernment Employed\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e80\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e20.7\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrivate Employed\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e147\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e38.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eStudent\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e135\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e35.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eHousewife\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e24\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEducation\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSecondary School\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e22\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.7\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntermediate Education\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e110\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e28.5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eGraduate\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e197\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e51.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePost graduate and above\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e57\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverall, the demographic composition of the survey reflects comparatively greater participation among younger and educated urban residents residing within the study area.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.4. Perceived Drivers of Urban Heat Island Effects\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eSurvey findings indicate that respondents strongly associated increasing urban heat with processes linked to rapid urbanization, environmental degradation, and expanding urban activity within Abbottabad. Urban sprawl emerged as one of the most significant perceived contributors to urban heat island formation, with all respondents identifying it as having either medium or high influence. Respondents consistently associated increasing urban heat with population growth, migration, vegetation loss, expanding commercial activity, and insufficient urban planning.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTraffic related factors were similarly identified as major contributors to increasing urban temperatures. More than 95% of respondents perceived traffic related processes as having medium to high influence on urban heat formation. Respondents frequently associated increasing traffic congestion, expanding road infrastructure, automobile dependency, and traffic related emissions with changing thermal conditions within the city.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eClimate change and pollution related factors were also widely perceived as major contributors to increasing urban heat. A substantial proportion of respondents identified rising temperatures, air pollution, solid waste pollution, and environmental degradation as strongly associated with increasing thermal stress within the urban environment. Similarly, respondents perceived increasing energy consumption and expanding construction activity as contributing factors associated with changing urban thermal conditions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverall, the findings suggest that residents perceive increasing urban heat not as an isolated environmental issue, but rather as part of a broader process of urban transformation involving rapid land conversion, environmental degradation, expanding infrastructure, and changing urban lifestyles.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.5. Perceived Impacts of Urban Heat Island Effects\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eRespondents further associated increasing urban temperatures with a range of perceived environmental, wellbeing related, and lifestyle related impacts. Perceived health and wellbeing related impacts emerged as one of the dominant dimensions identified in the survey, with more than half of respondents indicating high levels of impact associated with increasing urban temperatures. Respondents frequently associated increasing heat with thermal discomfort, changes in sleeping patterns, dehydration, respiratory distress, and declining everyday comfort within the urban environment.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLifestyle related impacts were also widely identified among respondents. Nearly half of the respondents perceived increasing temperatures as having substantial influence on living practices, clothing preferences, and household cooling behavior. Respondents further indicated that changing thermal conditions were increasingly affecting everyday routines and adaptation practices within the city.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnvironmental impacts associated with urban heat were similarly emphasized by respondents. A large proportion of participants perceived deteriorating air quality, increasing surface temperatures, and changing rainfall patterns as major consequences associated with increasing urban heat within Abbottabad. Construction related adaptation responses were also evident, particularly in relation to changing roofing materials, insulation practices, and housing related modifications intended to reduce thermal exposure.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTaken together, the findings indicate that urban heat island effects in Abbottabad are increasingly experienced as a multidimensional urban environmental issue linked to rapid urban expansion, changing land use patterns, and shifting urban living conditions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4. Discussion","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec15\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.1. Urban Expansion and Thermal Transformation\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe findings demonstrate substantial transformation of Abbottabad\u0026rsquo;s urban landscape between 2000 and 2020, characterized by rapid expansion of built up land and increasing thermal intensity across the city. The proportion of built up surfaces increased from 17.57% in 2000 to 43.65% in 2020, while land surface temperature analysis revealed a progressive expansion of elevated thermal zones throughout the study area. The spatial correspondence observed between increasing built up surfaces and expanding thermal intensity suggests that recent urban growth has significantly altered the thermal characteristics of Abbottabad\u0026rsquo;s urban environment.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese findings are consistent with existing urban climate research demonstrating that land use and land cover transformation associated with urbanization plays a central role in intensifying urban heat island effects through increased heat absorption, declining evapotranspiration, and reduced surface permeability [1, 9]. Previous studies have similarly shown that impervious surfaces and dense urban development contribute significantly to increasing land surface temperatures, whereas vegetated surfaces may reduce thermal intensity through surface cooling effects [10, 11]. The observed decline in non built up land within Abbottabad therefore reflects broader urban environmental transformations commonly associated with rapidly urbanizing cities in developing regions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe findings are particularly significant in the context of Abbottabad because the city represents a rapidly urbanizing mountainous settlement where topographic sensitivity and ecological fragility may intensify the environmental implications of unregulated urban expansion. Existing urban heat island scholarship has largely focused on major metropolitan regions situated within relatively homogeneous lowland terrain, while comparatively limited attention has been directed toward secondary and hilly cities undergoing accelerated spatial transformation. In environmentally sensitive mountain cities, expanding built surfaces, vegetation loss, and constrained urban morphology may increase vulnerability to thermal stress and ecological degradation in distinct ways.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe transformation observed in Abbottabad\u0026rsquo;s urban landscape also reflects broader processes of post disaster urban restructuring within the region. Following the 2005 earthquake, the city experienced accelerated migration, residential development, commercial expansion, and increasing infrastructural activity, all of which contributed to expanding pressure on previously vegetated and open land. The resulting expansion of built surfaces appears to have reshaped not only the physical morphology of the city but also its thermal environment.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2 Perceived Drivers of Urban Heat Island Effects\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSurvey findings indicate that respondents strongly associated increasing urban heat with processes linked to rapid urbanization, environmental degradation, and changing patterns of urban activity. Urban sprawl emerged as one of the most significant perceived contributors to urban heat island formation, with all respondents identifying it as having either medium or high influence. Traffic related factors were similarly perceived as major contributors to increasing urban temperatures, while climate change and pollution related processes were also widely identified as highly influential dimensions associated with increasing urban heat.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese findings align with broader urban climate literature linking dispersed urban expansion, increasing automobile dependency, vegetation loss, and anthropogenic activity with thermal intensification in rapidly growing cities [4, 5]. Previous studies have similarly emphasized the contribution of impervious surfaces, traffic related emissions, and declining urban vegetation to increasing urban heat exposure and deteriorating environmental conditions within expanding urban regions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe findings further suggest that residents perceive thermal intensification not as an isolated climatic phenomenon, but rather as part of a broader process of sociospatial and environmental transformation involving migration, changing land use patterns, expanding infrastructure, and declining ecological quality within the city. Respondents consistently associated increasing temperatures with visible changes in the urban environment, particularly deforestation, increasing traffic congestion, and expanding construction activity. These perceptions reflect growing public awareness regarding the environmental consequences of rapid and insufficiently regulated urban expansion in Abbottabad.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe strong emphasis placed by respondents on urban sprawl and traffic related growth further highlights the importance of integrating urban climate concerns into land use planning and transportation policy in rapidly growing secondary cities. In contexts where urban expansion occurs more rapidly than planning and environmental management capacity, thermal vulnerability may increasingly emerge as both an environmental and governance challenge.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec16\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.3. Perceived Impacts of Increasing Urban Heat\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe findings further indicate that respondents associated increasing urban temperatures with a range of perceived environmental, lifestyle related, and wellbeing related impacts. Perceived health and wellbeing related impacts emerged as one of the dominant dimensions identified within the survey, with respondents frequently associating increasing urban heat with thermal discomfort, changes in sleeping patterns, dehydration, respiratory distress, and declining everyday comfort within the urban environment. Although these findings represent residents\u0026rsquo; perceptions rather than clinically measured outcomes, they nevertheless reflect increasing public concern regarding the implications of rising urban temperatures for urban living conditions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrevious studies have similarly demonstrated that increasing urban heat exposure may influence thermal comfort, public wellbeing, energy demand, and everyday urban experience, particularly during periods of prolonged heat stress and intensified urban warming [6, 12]. Research has also shown that the interaction between urban heat island effects and broader climatic warming may amplify thermal exposure within rapidly urbanizing regions, particularly where urban morphology and environmental degradation reduce adaptive capacity.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLifestyle related changes were also widely identified by respondents, particularly in relation to household cooling practices, clothing preferences, and changing patterns of everyday living. Respondents additionally perceived significant changes in local environmental conditions, including deteriorating air quality, increasing surface temperatures, and changing rainfall patterns. Construction related adaptation responses, including increasing emphasis on insulation and changing roofing materials, further suggest that residents increasingly perceive urban heat as influencing housing and built environment practices within Abbottabad.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTaken together, the findings indicate that urban heat island effects in Abbottabad are increasingly experienced not only as an environmental issue but also as a sociospatial and planning challenge associated with rapid urban transformation and changing urban living conditions. The integration of remote sensing analysis and residents\u0026rsquo; perceptions therefore highlights the interconnected relationship between urban expansion, environmental change, and perceived thermal vulnerability within a rapidly urbanizing mountainous city.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"5. Conclusion and Planning Implications","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis study examined the relationship between urban expansion, land transformation, and perceived urban heat island effects in Abbottabad, a rapidly urbanizing mountainous city in northern Pakistan. The findings revealed substantial land use and land cover transformation between 2000 and 2020, characterized by a major increase in built up surfaces and a corresponding expansion of elevated land surface temperature zones across the urban landscape. The results further indicated that residents strongly associated increasing urban heat with processes linked to rapid urbanization, including urban sprawl, traffic growth, vegetation loss, and expanding construction activity.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe findings suggest that ongoing urban transformation in Abbottabad is reshaping not only the physical structure of the city but also its thermal and environmental conditions. In particular, the expansion of built surfaces following accelerated post 2005 urban growth appears to have intensified thermal exposure within the urban environment. Given the ecological sensitivity and topographic constraints of mountainous cities, the implications of unregulated urban expansion may be especially significant in such regions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBeyond its environmental dimensions, the study indicates that urban heat is increasingly experienced by residents as a sociospatial and lifestyle related challenge associated with changing living conditions, declining environmental quality, and increasing thermal discomfort. The findings therefore reinforce the importance of integrating climate responsive planning approaches into the development and management of rapidly urbanizing secondary cities.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom a planning perspective, the study highlights the need for more environmentally sensitive urban development strategies, including protection of vegetated land, improved land use management, and greater consideration of urban ecological processes within planning policy and infrastructure development. In rapidly growing mountain cities such as Abbottabad, urban climate considerations should be incorporated more explicitly into future planning and development frameworks in order to reduce long term heat vulnerability and environmental stress.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe study is subject to certain limitations. The questionnaire component reflects residents\u0026rsquo; perceptions regarding the drivers and impacts of urban heat rather than clinically or experimentally measured outcomes. Similarly, the remote sensing analysis was limited to broad land cover classification and land surface temperature assessment derived from Landsat imagery. Future research may therefore benefit from incorporating higher resolution thermal data, advanced spatial analysis, and longitudinal climatic observations to further examine the dynamics of urban heat in rapidly urbanizing mountainous environments.\u003c/p\u003e "},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contribution\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eS.U.S. conceived and designed the study, conducted the remote sensing and spatial analysis, performed data interpretation, and prepared the original manuscript draft. M.S. contributed to the conceptual development of the research, questionnaire design, interpretation of findings, and critical revision and editing of the manuscript. Both authors reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eData Availability\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Landsat imagery used in this study was obtained from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) EarthExplorer platform.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eEthics Approval Statement: This study was conducted in accordance with institutional ethical guidelines and was approved by the National University of Science and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eParticipant Consent Statement: Informed consent was obtained from all participants involved in the study prior to participation.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eVoogt, J.A. and T.R. Oke, \u003cem\u003eThermal remote sensing of urban climates.\u003c/em\u003e Remote sensing of environment, 2003. \u003cstrong\u003e86\u003c/strong\u003e(3): p. 370-384.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003ePhelan, P.E., et al., \u003cem\u003eUrban heat island: mechanisms, implications, and possible remedies.\u003c/em\u003e Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2015. \u003cstrong\u003e40\u003c/strong\u003e: p. 285-307.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eScheuer, S., D. Haase, and M. Volk, \u003cem\u003eIntegrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research.\u003c/em\u003e PLoS One, 2017. \u003cstrong\u003e12\u003c/strong\u003e(12): p. e0189451.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBhatta, B., S. Saraswati, and D. Bandyopadhyay, \u003cem\u003eUrban sprawl measurement from remote sensing data.\u003c/em\u003e Applied geography, 2010. \u003cstrong\u003e30\u003c/strong\u003e(4): p. 731-740.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eKarakayaci, Z., \u003cem\u003eThe concept of urban sprawl and its causes.\u003c/em\u003e Journal of International Social Research, 2016. \u003cstrong\u003e9\u003c/strong\u003e(45).\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eHintz, M.J., et al., \u003cem\u003eFacing the heat: A systematic literature review exploring the transferability of solutions to cope with urban heat waves.\u003c/em\u003e Urban climate, 2018. \u003cstrong\u003e24\u003c/strong\u003e: p. 714-727.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eEstoque, R.C., et al., \u003cem\u003eHeat health risk assessment in Philippine cities using remotely sensed data and social-ecological indicators.\u003c/em\u003e Nature communications, 2020. \u003cstrong\u003e11\u003c/strong\u003e(1): p. 1-12.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eIUCN Pakistan, I., \u003cem\u003eAbbottabad\u0026mdash;State of the Environment and Development.\u003c/em\u003e IUCN Pakistan and NWFP: Karachi, Pakistan. xii \u0026thorn;136 pp, 2004.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAneesh, M., K. Sumit, and K. Nivedita, \u003cem\u003eSpatial and temporal variations of urban heat island effect and the effect of percentage impervious surface area and elevation on land surface temperature: Study of Chandigarh city, India.\u003c/em\u003e Sustainable Cities and Society, 2016. \u003cstrong\u003e26\u003c/strong\u003e: p. 264-277.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eZhou, W., et al., \u003cem\u003eRelationships between land cover and the surface urban heat island: Seasonal variability and effects of spatial and thematic resolution of land cover data on predicting land surface temperatures.\u003c/em\u003e Landscape Ecology, 2014. \u003cstrong\u003e29\u003c/strong\u003e.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eHua, L., et al., \u003cem\u003eThe Impacts of the Expansion of Urban Impervious Surfaces on Urban Heat Islands in a Coastal City in China.\u003c/em\u003e Sustainability, 2020. \u003cstrong\u003e12\u003c/strong\u003e(2): p. 475.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eLi, D. and E. Bou-Zeid, \u003cem\u003eSynergistic Interactions between Urban Heat Islands and Heat Waves: The Impact in Cities Is Larger than the Sum of Its Parts.\u003c/em\u003e Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2013. \u003cstrong\u003e52\u003c/strong\u003e(9): p. 2051-2064.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9656288/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9656288/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eRapid urbanization and land transformation in environmentally sensitive mountain cities have intensified concerns regarding the emergence and expansion of urban heat island (UHI) effects in the Global South. This study investigates the relationship between urban expansion, land-use/land-cover (LULC) change, and perceived thermal stress in Abbottabad, Pakistan, a rapidly urbanizing hilly city that has experienced substantial demographic and spatial growth during the past two decades. A mixed-method approach integrating remote sensing analysis and questionnaire-based survey data was employed to examine the drivers and perceived impacts of UHI within the study area. Landsat imagery acquired for 2000, 2010, and 2020 was analyzed using supervised maximum likelihood classification to quantify changes in built-up and non-built-up land cover. The results indicate a substantial increase in built-up area, which expanded from 17.57% in 2000 to 43.65% in 2020, accompanied by a spatial intensification of land surface temperature across the urban core. Survey findings further suggest that respondents primarily associated increasing urban heat with traffic growth, urban sprawl, vegetation loss, and rising energy consumption. Perceived impacts reported by respondents included declining thermal comfort, changes in lifestyle patterns, and deterioration in local environmental conditions. The findings underscore the increasing climatic vulnerability of rapidly urbanizing hilly cities and highlight the importance of climate-responsive urban planning, controlled land-use expansion, and urban greening interventions for mitigating future thermal stress.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Urban Expansion and Thermal Vulnerability in a Himalayan Foothill City: Evidence from Abbottabad, Pakistan","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-05-12 16:01:35","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9656288/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"741e05eb-468f-4876-9bb2-3b3d4d6ce8ac","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 12th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"submitted","content":"Environmental Monitoring and Assessment","date":"2026-05-08T15:57:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-12T16:01:35+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-05-12 16:01:35","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9656288","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9656288","identity":"rs-9656288","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}