Empirical Investigation into the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from 10 Leading African Economies

Empirical Investigation into the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from 10 Leading African Economies | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Empirical Investigation into the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from 10 Leading African Economies Oluwafemi Ojo, Sakhile Mpungose, Ojo Johnson Adelakun This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6256408/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Many developing nations have strengthened their export-led orientation to address external imbalances. However, how developing countries perform is still unknown. This study used panel data from the 10 largest economies in Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa, Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, and Tanzania) to examine the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis in the selected economies. The study adopted a methodology framework based on the fixed effect estimation of time series data for the 10 countries from 1990 to 2021. The Hausman test determined the appropriateness of the adopted estimation technique by rejecting the random effect model. Similarly, the LM test of the random effect rejected the use of pooled ordinary least squares. Moreover, the estimate revealed the absence of heteroscedasticity, which further affirms the reliability of the estimated coefficients. Our findings demonstrate that increased exports significantly boosted growth across countries within the period. The article recommends that policymakers across selected countries consider encouraging export expansion plans to increase trade. The study also suggests a policy part of heavy investment in infrastructure and human capital development for export-led policy sustainability. JEL Classification: F43, F14, F10, C23 Macroeconomics Development Economics Finance International Economics Trade Export Promotion Economic Growth Export-led Growth Hypothesis Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files Appendices.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6256408","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":430716594,"identity":"5cc07759-e3fc-491d-8261-0b82ed89996d","order_by":0,"name":"Oluwafemi Ojo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"UKZN","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Oluwafemi","middleName":"","lastName":"Ojo","suffix":""},{"id":430716595,"identity":"5c732fce-a7e3-40eb-a57f-bcd506d3b62f","order_by":1,"name":"Sakhile Mpungose","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"UKZN","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sakhile","middleName":"","lastName":"Mpungose","suffix":""},{"id":430717084,"identity":"7db7423f-9a13-4ead-91aa-159543927380","order_by":2,"name":"Ojo Johnson Adelakun","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABCElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYeKOsAcwNjAwODHJj9gDgtjGAtxmB2Al570LQkNoA4+LQwt/cee/ij4o483/HGxo8z2+6kzw87/BBoi52cbgMOh/WcSzfmOfPMcOaZg82SG9ue5W68nWYA1JJsbHYAh5YZOWbSjG2HGTfcSGyQfNh2OHfj7ASQlgOJ2/BokfzZdth+w/2HzT+BWtINZ6d/IKhFgrftcOKGG4xtQIcdTpCXziFgS88ZM2meM4eTZ55JbLOcce6w4QbpnIIDCQa4/WLY3mMm+aPisG3f8cOHb/aUHZaXn52++cOHCjs5nFoa0EUMwCoNsCsHAXlMEQxDRsEoGAWjYKQDAKdFcBjm9aLpAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5984-8976","institution":"UKZN \u0026 NUL","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ojo","middleName":"Johnson","lastName":"Adelakun","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-18 22:19:44","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":true,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6256408/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6256408/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":78868218,"identity":"09a99f19-8620-457f-9b17-61c990535f23","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-03-20 04:56:51","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":607696,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"1EmpiricalInvestigationintoExportLedGrowthHypothesis.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6256408/v1_covered_1755d18d-cffb-4e84-9b51-ad8deea06273.pdf"},{"id":78867102,"identity":"ef72b5ae-5fed-462c-9377-261ce521974c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-03-20 04:32:49","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":26290,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Appendices.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6256408/v1/0e6f4b429b01982c8106ee91.docx"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEmpirical Investigation into the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from 10 Leading African Economies\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"University of KwaZulu-Natal","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Trade, Export Promotion, Economic Growth, Export-led Growth Hypothesis","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6256408/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6256408/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eMany developing nations have strengthened their export-led orientation to address external imbalances. 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