Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land-Use Conflicts in China’ Major Grain-Producing Regions

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land-Use Conflicts in China’ Major Grain-Producing Regions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land-Use Conflicts in China’ Major Grain-Producing Regions Wenting Fan, Jun Yang, Zhe Li, Xuefeng Kang, Yuqing Zhang, Xinyao Tai, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8072579/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 May, 2026 Read the published version in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications → Version 1 posted 14 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Food security is a strategic issue of global concern. In China's major grain-producing regions (CMGPRs), conflicts among agricultural, construction, and ecological land are intensifying owing to rapid urbanization and overlapping land-use demands, thereby creating significant risks for food security. To address the lack of systematic analyses of spatial conflicts within CMGPRs, a land-use suitability evaluation system is constructed for Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shandong, and Henan. This system analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of land-use conflicts from 2005 to 2023 and employs the patch-generating land-use simulation model to project future land-use pattern under three scenarios: natural development, cropland protection, and ecological priority. The main findings are as follows. (1) Between 2005 and 2023, agricultural land suitability decreased by 10.23% in Northeast China (Heilongjiang, Jilin) but increased by 24.55% in Central China (Shandong, Henan). Construction land suitability improved across all four provinces, whereas ecological land suitability decreased by 20.53% from 2005 to 2014 but increased by 34.62% from 2014 to 2023. (2) The “intense conflict between agricultural and construction land” intensified significantly across CMGPRs, with Henan experiencing the largest increase (24.86%). (3) The ecological priority scenario aligns best with future sustainable development in CMGPRs. By curbing construction land expansion and enhancing ecological space, this scenario contributes to increasing agricultural space, achieving synergistic benefits between agriculture and ecology. The findings offer valuable practical insights for mitigating land-use conflicts in grain-producing regions, promoting sustainable development of national territorial space, and safeguarding food security. Biological sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Social science/Environmental studies Scientific community and society/Geography Social science/Geography China’s Major Grain-Producing Regions Suitability Evaluation Land-Use Conflicts Plus Model Multi-Scenario Simulation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 May, 2026 Read the published version in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 27 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 04 Jan, 2026 Reviews received at journal 31 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 24 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 21 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 18 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 16 Dec, 2025 Editor invited by journal 09 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 19 Nov, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 15 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 09 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8072579","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":562647232,"identity":"e8eb3dec-40de-4300-8b3a-4dca4cd5dbdd","order_by":0,"name":"Wenting Fan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Liaoning Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wenting","middleName":"","lastName":"Fan","suffix":""},{"id":562647239,"identity":"82ecf64d-71ca-4843-a533-86ed51a3f290","order_by":1,"name":"Jun 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In China's major grain-producing regions (CMGPRs), conflicts among agricultural, construction, and ecological land are intensifying owing to rapid urbanization and overlapping land-use demands, thereby creating significant risks for food security. To address the lack of systematic analyses of spatial conflicts within CMGPRs, a land-use suitability evaluation system is constructed for Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shandong, and Henan. This system analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of land-use conflicts from 2005 to 2023 and employs the patch-generating land-use simulation model to project future land-use pattern under three scenarios: natural development, cropland protection, and ecological priority. The main findings are as follows. (1) Between 2005 and 2023, agricultural land suitability decreased by 10.23% in Northeast China (Heilongjiang, Jilin) but increased by 24.55% in Central China (Shandong, Henan). Construction land suitability improved across all four provinces, whereas ecological land suitability decreased by 20.53% from 2005 to 2014 but increased by 34.62% from 2014 to 2023. (2) The \u0026ldquo;intense conflict between agricultural and construction land\u0026rdquo; intensified significantly across CMGPRs, with Henan experiencing the largest increase (24.86%). (3) The ecological priority scenario aligns best with future sustainable development in CMGPRs. By curbing construction land expansion and enhancing ecological space, this scenario contributes to increasing agricultural space, achieving synergistic benefits between agriculture and ecology. The findings offer valuable practical insights for mitigating land-use conflicts in grain-producing regions, promoting sustainable development of national territorial space, and safeguarding food security.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land-Use Conflicts in China’ Major Grain-Producing Regions","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-20 01:43:52","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8072579/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-02-27T07:09:23+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-01-04T07:36:41+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-31T07:04:41+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-24T14:28:44+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-21T08:45:50+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"39964936499083021447309407291931666062","date":"2025-12-19T00:27:54+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"39059703385026158691415776245739686436","date":"2025-12-17T10:56:27+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"317893153000315954734383454779941716447","date":"2025-12-17T10:54:24+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"281458431949585753502901176569486956384","date":"2025-12-17T05:22:14+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-12-17T00:15:17+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2025-12-09T16:15:56+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-11-20T04:26:36+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-11-15T05:19:22+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications","date":"2025-11-10T04:09:49+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"humanities-and-social-sciences-communications","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"palcomms","sideBox":"Learn more about [Humanities \u0026 Social Sciences Communications](http://www.nature.com/palcomms/)","snPcode":"41599","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41599/3","title":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Nature AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5cd6cbb1-7e8c-4d55-ac0c-5692b59759e3","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 20th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":59918149,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology"},{"id":59918150,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology"},{"id":59918151,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"},{"id":59918152,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences"},{"id":59918153,"name":"Social science/Environmental studies"},{"id":59918154,"name":"Scientific community and society/Geography"},{"id":59918155,"name":"Social science/Geography"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-13T14:44:50+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-8072579","link":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-026-07418-2","journal":{"identity":"humanities-and-social-sciences-communications","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications"},"publishedOn":"2026-05-02 15:57:29","publishedOnDateReadable":"May 2nd, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-20 01:43:52","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1057/s41599-026-07418-2","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-026-07418-2","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8072579","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8072579","identity":"rs-8072579","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}