The response of cereal crop production to climate variability in Botswana: An ARDL model analysis

The response of cereal crop production to climate variability in Botswana: An ARDL model analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The response of cereal crop production to climate variability in Botswana: An ARDL model analysis Given Matopote, Niraj Prakash Joshi, Khalid Kazi Hossain, Boga Thura Manatsha This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6504966/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 29 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Theoretical and Applied Climatology → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate variability threatens cereal crop production in the Global South countries, such as Botswana. This study aims to examine the associations between climate variability and cereal crop production in Botswana at a national level, focusing more on temperature. The study employs time series data from 1969 to 2020, along with the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector autoregression with exogenous variable models (VARX) to determine the associations between climate variability and Botswana’s most cultivated cereal crops, maize, and sorghum. The climate variables used are seasonal maximum surface air temperature, seasonal minimum surface air temperature, precipitation, and dry/wet season defined through the standardized precipitation index. The ARDL estimations show that maize is negatively associated with maximum temperatures and positively associated with the wet season in the long run. Sorghum is positively associated with dry season, maximum temperature, and precipitation in the long run. Results of the VARX model show that the relationship between temperature and production of both cereal crops is not statistically significant. The associations between cereal crops and climatic variables might indicate that the future focus should be on sorghum production and heat-tolerant maize varieties. Further research on the physiological and morphological reactions of the two crops to temperature may be needed. This may assist in formulating policies aimed at reducing cereal crop losses from projected variations in climate in the future. maize sorghum standardized precipitation index temperature Botswana Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 29 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Theoretical and Applied Climatology → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 23 Jul, 2025 Reviews received at journal 22 Jul, 2025 Reviews received at journal 09 Jul, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Jul, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 04 Jul, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Jul, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Jul, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 05 May, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 24 Apr, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 24 Apr, 2025 First submitted to journal 22 Apr, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6504966","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":452221639,"identity":"84a27a62-6acf-4e46-b780-d6bd2c392658","order_by":0,"name":"Given Matopote","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA9ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZhReBUiEuYEoLRJAzNjAcAYkwkhACwOyFsY2BohWfEDencfwcWGOXR2/dPPxBx/n1UbztwO1/KjYhlOL4WEeY+OZ25IlJOccS2ycue147ozDQNt6ztzGraWZLU2adxuzhMGNHMNm3m3HchuAWpgZ2/BqSf/Nu60eouXvnGO58wlpkWdmPsbMu+0wRAtjQ03uBkJaDJiZDwMddlxyJtAvM3uOHcjdCNRyEJ9f5PsPNn7m3VbNDwyxAx9+1NTlzjt/+OCDHxV4bDkAY0mAycNg8gA2pXBbGlC11OFTPApGwSgYBSMUAADYmForDkhNoQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Hiroshima University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Given","middleName":"","lastName":"Matopote","suffix":""},{"id":452221640,"identity":"c2f69496-9470-4949-a669-0e6f56cde9e9","order_by":1,"name":"Niraj Prakash Joshi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hiroshima University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Niraj","middleName":"Prakash","lastName":"Joshi","suffix":""},{"id":452221641,"identity":"a4b903c5-da5b-466f-9a5e-a0fb1d4a8e05","order_by":2,"name":"Khalid Kazi Hossain","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hiroshima University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Khalid","middleName":"Kazi","lastName":"Hossain","suffix":""},{"id":452221642,"identity":"b399f7ce-cf19-454d-b8bc-279509dd15cf","order_by":3,"name":"Boga Thura Manatsha","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Botswana","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Boga","middleName":"Thura","lastName":"Manatsha","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-22 13:53:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6504966/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6504966/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-06007-8","type":"published","date":"2026-01-29T15:59:18+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101690809,"identity":"4205da14-1515-4b70-aed7-c3a4153cf9dd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-02 16:09:13","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":577028,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"GivenMatopoteetal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6504966/v1_covered_0903f0ed-ff72-4012-86a0-1e4e089f6074.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The response of cereal crop production to climate variability in Botswana: An ARDL model analysis","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-and-applied-climatology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"taac","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical and Applied Climatology](https://www.springer.com/journal/704)","snPcode":"704","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/704/3","title":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"maize, sorghum, standardized precipitation index, temperature, Botswana","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6504966/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6504966/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eClimate variability threatens cereal crop production in the Global South countries, such as Botswana. 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