A fundamental cognitive bias increases support for violence against civilians in Gaza and Israel

A fundamental cognitive bias increases support for violence against civilians in Gaza and Israel | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Social Sciences - Article A fundamental cognitive bias increases support for violence against civilians in Gaza and Israel Nils Mallock, Jeremy Ginges This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6831061/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract War is often characterised by indiscriminate violence against civilians. It is critical to understand why ordinary people might support acts such as ethnic cleansing or genocide, as popular support facilitates campaigns of indiscriminate violence. Theory suggests that support may rest on ideologies and narratives that portray the target group as less than human and threatening, thereby creating a moral mandate for killing. However, there has been little empirical study of these mechanisms during outbreaks of extreme violence. Here we report studies carried out in an ongoing campaign of violence in Gaza and Israel (n = 2462), showing that alongside such narratives, popular support for violence against civilians derives from a common cognitive error we term the hate-motive bias: the tendency to overestimate hate motives, and underestimate defensive motives, of outgroup aggression. Hate-motive bias predicted support for various forms of violence against civilians even while statistically accounting for other predictors such as ideological orientation, dehumanisation of outgroups and perceived threat. Our results suggest that a common attribution bias may contribute to ordinary citizens supporting behaviour they might typically deplore. Efforts to correct this bias may offer a behavioural science lever for reducing popular support for violence against civilians. Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Psychology/Human behaviour Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Politics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6831061","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Social Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":476501428,"identity":"2bba0ddf-31fe-4c7a-80d3-0c292cf86633","order_by":0,"name":"Nils Mallock","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA20lEQVRIie3RMQrCMBSA4VcLzyXgmoLUK8RJheJZUoROLXR0cCgIdSnOHkNvEAm0iweIW8ELdHIqaqsOTrFuDvm3N3zwXgJgMv1v0yEAWmX5Hq3kO6GkITbjvxKkncgECOupFSWDfh4see3BYCPQ2WnILCHMDnNKnCzIlZ8GQE8cnb2GMNESpISpfqr8RAIoQKf8Sm4vEvP6DqNOJEpbgjlwFMBaol1MYiyj7fOWBfXTBRmf/PVMdz4r1odLePXc5sXGVVXPXbeQx3OmIWADiM+ZdPtIk8lkMml7ABhSQ4QoGfVXAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9331-7311","institution":"London School of Economics and Political Science","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nils","middleName":"","lastName":"Mallock","suffix":""},{"id":476501429,"identity":"c8f525c8-1365-4983-8617-9fe63df64940","order_by":1,"name":"Jeremy Ginges","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"London School of Economics and Political Science","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jeremy","middleName":"","lastName":"Ginges","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-05 16:51:26","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6831061/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6831061/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":96917208,"identity":"57c119b0-ba61-47b1-8952-9353dae68d13","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 14:09:21","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1454942,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"NMJG2025Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6831061/v1_covered_2b9671a2-b6e5-4297-9c2b-10114779c5d5.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"A fundamental cognitive bias increases support for violence against civilians in Gaza and Israel","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6831061/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6831061/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"War is often characterised by indiscriminate violence against civilians. It is critical to understand why ordinary people might support acts such as ethnic cleansing or genocide, as popular support facilitates campaigns of indiscriminate violence. Theory suggests that support may rest on ideologies and narratives that portray the target group as less than human and threatening, thereby creating a moral mandate for killing. However, there has been little empirical study of these mechanisms during outbreaks of extreme violence. Here we report studies carried out in an ongoing campaign of violence in Gaza and Israel (n = 2462), showing that alongside such narratives, popular support for violence against civilians derives from a common cognitive error we term the hate-motive bias: the tendency to overestimate hate motives, and underestimate defensive motives, of outgroup aggression. Hate-motive bias predicted support for various forms of violence against civilians even while statistically accounting for other predictors such as ideological orientation, dehumanisation of outgroups and perceived threat. Our results suggest that a common attribution bias may contribute to ordinary citizens supporting behaviour they might typically deplore. Efforts to correct this bias may offer a behavioural science lever for reducing popular support for violence against civilians.","manuscriptTitle":"A fundamental cognitive bias increases support for violence against civilians in Gaza and Israel","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-27 02:40:45","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6831061/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"4e573595-dc09-430e-a9a0-a6535f5593ac","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 27th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":50600645,"name":"Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Psychology/Human behaviour"},{"id":50600646,"name":"Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Politics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-26T14:57:16+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-27 02:40:45","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6831061","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6831061","identity":"rs-6831061","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}