Climate-Induced Streamflow Variability Assessment Using GIS-Based Hydrological Models in a Snow-Glacier Fed Sparsely Gauged River Basin

Climate-Induced Streamflow Variability Assessment Using GIS-Based Hydrological Models in a Snow-Glacier Fed Sparsely Gauged River Basin | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Climate-Induced Streamflow Variability Assessment Using GIS-Based Hydrological Models in a Snow-Glacier Fed Sparsely Gauged River Basin Rizwan Mansha, Muhammad Azmat, Muhammad Zaib Arshad, Aqil Tariq This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8834525/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Investigating continuous daily streamflow from high-altitude snow- and glacier-fed catchments, based on both rainfall and snowmelt, is particularly challenging when climate records are limited. In this study, we compared the accuracy of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrology model to perform a continuous simulation of rainfall and snowmelt runoff in the Gilgit River basin in Northern Pakistan under the current scenario and to translate it to potential future climate-change scenarios. We used European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ERA-Interim (ECMWF) daily temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration data, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) daily solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity data to examine the efficiency of both models. Observed streamflow data for thirteen years (1990–2002) were used for calibration, and another 5 years (2003–2007) were used for model validation. Good agreement was obtained for simulated and observed streamflows for the annual snowmelt season in the calibration and validation period: (0.93, 0.23) and (0.75, 26.30) for HBV and (0.60, 34.26) and (0.74, 10.73) for SWAT [statistic is (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and difference in volume %)] respectively. Streamflow was projected using different precipitation and temperature scenarios under potential climate change. For temperature variations of -2 to + 4°C, HBV and SWAT showed annual streamflow variations of -16.92% to -6.6% and − 28.71% to -2.96%, respectively. The change in precipitation of -10% to + 20% showed a range of -6.65% to–13.3% in HBV and − 18.13% to–27.5% in SWAT, respectively. This study is among the first to evaluate and compare the performance of HBV and SWAT models over a data-scarce cryosphere catchment in Northern Pakistan relying solely on remotely sensed data, demonstrating the potential of HBV for operational use, thereby can be utilized as a baseline for the selection of appropriate hydrological models and datasets for the hydrologically peculiar catchments. Hydrologic modeling Runoff simulation Climate change SWAT HBV Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 13 Mar, 2026 Editor invited by journal 11 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 10 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 09 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8834525","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":605748341,"identity":"c1b106c6-6fb4-4c28-a191-3cfcfec3fabe","order_by":0,"name":"Rizwan Mansha","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National University of Science \u0026 Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rizwan","middleName":"","lastName":"Mansha","suffix":""},{"id":605748342,"identity":"5259809e-c89f-4c97-bfa2-240cbb3e33f6","order_by":1,"name":"Muhammad Azmat","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National University of Science \u0026 Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Muhammad","middleName":"","lastName":"Azmat","suffix":""},{"id":605748343,"identity":"1926aef9-ebcc-40c6-b57f-314f2de6754f","order_by":2,"name":"Muhammad Zaib Arshad","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"COMSATS University Islamabad","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Muhammad","middleName":"Zaib","lastName":"Arshad","suffix":""},{"id":605748344,"identity":"3d58b7db-0815-4c87-a080-0318655d4463","order_by":3,"name":"Aqil Tariq","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2UlEQVRIie3QMQuCQBTA8RcHTmbra9GvoAjREH2RFkVwE5rCIcjJ1bmpr9BHeIdwLaKr0BL0BQyXpkihISI82hruPx7vx909AJXqL2PEm3jxdkAyoWl+jkXY29e0nOgujdP8BzI5JDZN02plZRVvmxhMo/aGCQrwaF2eo2MdMKQC3KmMgAAi3HQEGSBPwT/KiCVGCelaGR2ynN35A3ZSYgsGpKcUJRRoyBPwbBlxRAjdkoP+L7N5IdDZF5dhYuZVe2viZfcwfq3j7cIyTpJbPsPfxlUqlUr1vSfBMlDSdvq7WgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1196-1248","institution":"Mississippi State University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aqil","middleName":"","lastName":"Tariq","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-09 21:50:52","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8834525/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8834525/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104682925,"identity":"592ae13d-79d0-41e3-a355-39069a9dab87","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-16 03:17:08","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1612026,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"RevisedManuscriptwithnochangesmaked.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8834525/v1_covered_7424774e-ff6b-4cf8-a1ea-7e706dad73c6.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Climate-Induced Streamflow Variability Assessment Using GIS-Based Hydrological Models in a Snow-Glacier Fed Sparsely Gauged River Basin","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"water-resources-management","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"warm","sideBox":"Learn more about [Water Resources Management](https://www.springer.com/journal/11269)","snPcode":"11269","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11269/3","title":"Water Resources Management","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Hydrologic modeling, Runoff simulation, Climate change, SWAT, HBV","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8834525/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8834525/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eInvestigating continuous daily streamflow from high-altitude snow- and glacier-fed catchments, based on both rainfall and snowmelt, is particularly challenging when climate records are limited. In this study, we compared the accuracy of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrologiska Byr\u0026aring;ns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrology model to perform a continuous simulation of rainfall and snowmelt runoff in the Gilgit River basin in Northern Pakistan under the current scenario and to translate it to potential future climate-change scenarios. We used European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ERA-Interim (ECMWF) daily temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration data, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) daily solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity data to examine the efficiency of both models. Observed streamflow data for thirteen years (1990\u0026ndash;2002) were used for calibration, and another 5 years (2003\u0026ndash;2007) were used for model validation. Good agreement was obtained for simulated and observed streamflows for the annual snowmelt season in the calibration and validation period: (0.93, 0.23) and (0.75, 26.30) for HBV and (0.60, 34.26) and (0.74, 10.73) for SWAT [statistic is (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and difference in volume %)] respectively. Streamflow was projected using different precipitation and temperature scenarios under potential climate change. For temperature variations of -2 to +\u0026thinsp;4\u0026deg;C, HBV and SWAT showed annual streamflow variations of -16.92% to -6.6% and \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;28.71% to -2.96%, respectively. The change in precipitation of -10% to +\u0026thinsp;20% showed a range of -6.65% to\u0026ndash;13.3% in HBV and \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;18.13% to\u0026ndash;27.5% in SWAT, respectively. This study is among the first to evaluate and compare the performance of HBV and SWAT models over a data-scarce cryosphere catchment in Northern Pakistan relying solely on remotely sensed data, demonstrating the potential of HBV for operational use, thereby can be utilized as a baseline for the selection of appropriate hydrological models and datasets for the hydrologically peculiar catchments.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Climate-Induced Streamflow Variability Assessment Using GIS-Based Hydrological Models in a Snow-Glacier Fed Sparsely Gauged River Basin","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-16 03:16:48","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8834525/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2026-04-17T03:43:48+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-03-13T15:21:07+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"Water Resources Management","date":"2026-03-11T08:37:33+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-02-10T09:32:43+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Water Resources Management","date":"2026-02-09T16:46:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"water-resources-management","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"warm","sideBox":"Learn more about [Water Resources Management](https://www.springer.com/journal/11269)","snPcode":"11269","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11269/3","title":"Water Resources Management","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"d152bcbb-78d1-4009-b3c4-527d0340f406","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 16th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-16T03:16:48+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-16 03:16:48","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8834525","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8834525","identity":"rs-8834525","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}