Identification of Precipitation Thresholds for Flooding in Basins With Scarce Data: Case Study for José Pereira River, Itajubá/MG

Identification of Precipitation Thresholds for Flooding in Basins With Scarce Data: Case Study for José Pereira River, Itajubá/MG | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Identification of Precipitation Thresholds for Flooding in Basins With Scarce Data: Case Study for José Pereira River, Itajubá/MG Gabriela dos Santos Barboza, Benedito Cláudio da Silva This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4077806/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Extreme events, such as flash floods, have increased globally, causing significant damage. In Brazil, this concern is worsened by climate change, with characteristics such as La Niña in 2022 and El Niño until 2024. Hydrological modeling with geoprocessing is crucial for risk management, requiring precise knowledge about limits on rainfall quantity and duration. This study aims to establish duration limits that trigger floods in the José Pereira river basin, a very representative small river basin in most cities of Brazil. The process begins with the characterization of the basin, considering climate, flood history, topography, soils, land use and subdivision into sub-basins. Parameters such as curve coefficient (CN), concentration time and lag time are calculated for each sub-basin. After characterization, we selected two flood events between 2022 and 2023 to calibrate the HEC-HMS model, using level and specialization data. Adjusted basin data for greater realism. We chose simulated events based on maximum rainfall and return time, using records from the 2013 to 2023 historical series rainfall station, decreasing 40 mm in 24 hours. These events showed technical and distributed rainfall, highlighting the influence of upstream basins on the variation in river levels during flood events. A detailed analysis revealed that the significant occurrence occurs between the first 25% and 50% of the total duration of rainfall caused by overflows or floods. From the simulations, we identified the minimum accumulation of rain necessary to exceed 1.5m in the river. The threshold curve highlighted that, upon reaching 34.60 mm of accumulation, it is crucial to issue an alert, as exceeding this value and the curve, the river is susceptible to overflowing at any time. Forecast and warning. Flash floods. Data scarcity. Hydrological modeling Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4077806","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":288732082,"identity":"9a260036-a9ad-4a1c-8c07-0fcc8d06bd6b","order_by":0,"name":"Gabriela dos Santos Barboza","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABCUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHgaGBAYLBgYJ5oMPPjaARBgbDxChRQKohS3ZcGYDiMXYQFgLA1gLj5k0L1gLAwNeLfLuZ499eFAhIS8/u8fY2HaHTZ1u+2GgLTU20bi0GJ7JS56RcEbCcMOdY4WPc8+kSZidSQRqOZaW24BLS0OOMUNimwTjBonkzca5bYclzA4AtTA2HMatpf8NUMs/Cfv5MxLMpC1BWs4/xK9FXgJkS4NEYsONFDNpRpCWGwRsMZB4l8yQcEwiGeiXZMPetjTJbTeAtiTg8Yt8f+5hxh81NrbzZzcffPCzzYbf7Hz6wwcfamxw23IAq3ACDuVgW3CZNQpGwSgYBaMADgCGeWSu8q0rfwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5631-5700","institution":"UNIFEI: Universidade Federal de Itajuba","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gabriela","middleName":"dos Santos","lastName":"Barboza","suffix":""},{"id":288732083,"identity":"732dfb78-b4ac-407a-ab05-c54e3a73a76c","order_by":1,"name":"Benedito Cláudio da Silva","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Federal University of Itajubá: Universidade Federal de Itajuba","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Benedito","middleName":"Cláudio da","lastName":"Silva","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-11 19:51:52","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4077806/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4077806/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":55365997,"identity":"76526758-b5f0-4ba3-89e8-d24bb4b8ba88","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-04-26 09:47:11","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1461565,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"FinalArticleEnglishGabrielaSBarbozaPOSMARH.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4077806/v1_covered_a8cfe1a6-7464-4f8f-bcc3-45e508720fbf.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eIdentification of Precipitation Thresholds for Flooding in Basins With Scarce Data: Case Study for José Pereira River, Itajubá/MG\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Forecast and warning. Flash floods. Data scarcity. Hydrological modeling","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4077806/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4077806/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eExtreme events, such as flash floods, have increased globally, causing significant damage. In Brazil, this concern is worsened by climate change, with characteristics such as La Ni\u0026ntilde;a in 2022 and El Ni\u0026ntilde;o until 2024. Hydrological modeling with geoprocessing is crucial for risk management, requiring precise knowledge about limits on rainfall quantity and duration. This study aims to establish duration limits that trigger floods in the Jos\u0026eacute; Pereira river basin, a very representative small river basin in most cities of Brazil. The process begins with the characterization of the basin, considering climate, flood history, topography, soils, land use and subdivision into sub-basins. Parameters such as curve coefficient (CN), concentration time and lag time are calculated for each sub-basin. After characterization, we selected two flood events between 2022 and 2023 to calibrate the HEC-HMS model, using level and specialization data. Adjusted basin data for greater realism. We chose simulated events based on maximum rainfall and return time, using records from the 2013 to 2023 historical series rainfall station, decreasing 40 mm in 24 hours. These events showed technical and distributed rainfall, highlighting the influence of upstream basins on the variation in river levels during flood events. A detailed analysis revealed that the significant occurrence occurs between the first 25% and 50% of the total duration of rainfall caused by overflows or floods. From the simulations, we identified the minimum accumulation of rain necessary to exceed 1.5m in the river. 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