Hydro-Climatic Shifts and Catchment Transformation: Modelling Streamflow Responses in Lake Bogoria Basin, Kenya

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Moso, George M. Ogendi, Bernard K. Kirui, Charles K. Kigen This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7675187/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 8 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate variability and land use land cover (LULC) changes are critical drivers of regional water balance, ultimately determining water quantity within river systems. This study sought to determine the impacts of rainfall variability, temperature variability, and LULC changes on the volume of water flowing through rivers draining into Lake Bogoria in Baringo County, Kenya, from 1981 to 2020. We established five Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for the time periods 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2020, inputting topographic, climate, LULC, and soil data. Primary data was also collected from the Endorois community and key informants from relevant ministries. Our analysis revealed that rainfall increased from 1290.3 mm in 1981 to 1853.6 mm in 2020. The mean temperature exhibited a slight warming trend, rising from 23.77°C in 1981 to 23.85°C in 2020. Land use land cover analysis depicted a net increase in surface area under water by 7.17 km², grasslands by 1.22 km², shrublands by 7.92 km², agricultural land (rain-fed and irrigated) by 8.06 km², Prosopis species by 0.74 km², peri-urban areas by 0.28 km², and bare areas by 0.62 km² over the forty years. Conversely, tree cover decreased substantially by 25.83 km². The model performance was robust, achieving a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.78 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.75, indicating good and very good performance, respectively. The total simulated discharge volumes of the Waseges, Kipsirian, and Ngiriki rivers increased from 8,230,008 m³ in 1981 to 17,629,946 m³ in 2020. We conclude that the combined effects of increasing rainfall and extensive deforestation overshadowed the impact of rising temperatures and the expansion of agricultural land, resulting in a net increase in river discharge volumes at the watershed scale. However, this masks a critical shift towards a more volatile hydrological regime with potential for more severe dry-season water scarcity. Rainfall Variability Temperature Variability Land Use Land Cover Rivers' Discharge Lake Bogoria Watershed SWAT Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 1. Introduction Water scarcity is a defining challenge in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), threatening agro-pastoral livelihoods and ecosystem integrity. Globally, agriculture accounts for approximately 70% of freshwater withdrawals, a pressure exacerbated by expanding croplands needed to support growing populations (IPCC, 2020). In these vulnerable regions, water resource availability is predominantly governed by two interacting factors: climate variability and change, and land use/land cover (LULC) change induced by anthropogenic activities (Tirupathi & Shashidhar, 2020; An et al ., 2021). Climate change, manifested through rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns, is projected to increase drought severity and water stress for millions in ASALs, particularly in Africa and Asia (IPCC, 2020). Concurrently, LULC changes such as deforestation, agricultural expansion, and urbanization alter fundamental hydrological processes – infiltration, evaporation, and surface runoff – thereby disrupting regional water balances and impacting both surface and groundwater resources (Khandu et al ., 2016; Rodell et al ., 2018). Kenya, a water-scarce nation, faces acute challenges in its ASALs, where poor water infrastructure and management compound the inherent uneven spatio-temporal distribution of resources (GOK, 2011). Nowhere are these hydrological dynamics more visibly expressed than in the closed-basin lakes of the East African Rift Valley. Lakes such as Naivasha, Baringo, and Bogoria have experienced significant, and often dramatic, fluctuations in water levels over historical and recent timescales (Onywere et al ., 2013; Herrnegger et al., 2021). Lake Bogoria, a saline-alkaline lake and a Ramsar site, has been part of this phenomenon, recording unprecedented water level rises between 2011 and 2014 that flooded adjacent ecosystems and infrastructure (Schagerl, 2016). The drivers of these changes remain poorly constrained, attributed variously to multi-decadal climatic cycles, tectonic activity, catchment degradation, or a combination thereof (Onywere et al ., 2013; LBNR, 2020). A critical limitation to resolving this uncertainty is the scarcity of long-term, systematic hydroclimatic records for these basins (Herrnegger et al ., 2021). Understanding the water inputs to these lakes is fundamental. For Lake Bogoria, the primary freshwater sources are the Waseges, Kipsirian, and Emsos/Ngiriki rivers, alongside direct precipitation and significant geothermal inflows. While the lake itself is saline and unsuitable for consumption or irrigation, the freshwater from these rivers is vital for the dryland farming and livestock watering upon which the local Endorois community depends. Therefore, quantifying the discharge of these feeder rivers, and diagnosing the factors controlling it, is not only a hydrological imperative but a socio-economic one. Previous studies have noted the potential role of both climate and LULC change in the region but have often been limited by short records or have not employed process-based modeling to disentangle their relative impacts. This study aimed to address this gap by leveraging a 40-year historical dataset (1981–2020) and applying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed hydrological model, to the Lake Bogoria watershed. The findings of this study will provide critical insights for developing sustainable water resource management strategies in this vulnerable basin and contribute to the broader understanding of hydrological changes in rift valley lake systems. 2. Materials and Methods 2.1. Study Area The study was conducted in the Lake Bogoria watershed, situated within the Marigat and Mogotio Sub-counties of Baringo County in north-western Kenya (Fig. 1 ). The watershed lies within the axial depression of the Gregory Rift Valley, forming an asymmetric half-graben (Renaut & Owen, 2023). The central feature is Lake Bogoria itself, a narrow, saline-alkaline lake located at approximately 36°06′ E and 0º15′ N (De Cort et al ., 2018). The lake occupies a tectonic trough bounded by the Lake Bogoria Escarpment to the east and the fault-fragmented, eastward-sloping Kipngatip plateau, composed of phonolite lava, to the west (Obando et al ., 2016). The area is drained primarily by the Waseges-Sandai River, the Emsos River, and the Kipsirian River, alongside numerous ephemeral streams (Renaut & Owen, 2023). The lake is a topographically closed system with no surface outflow, and its water balance is supplemented by hot springs and geysers along its shoreline (Renaut et al ., 2017; Salano et al ., 2018). The climate is semi-arid, characterized by bimodal rainfall: long rains occur from March to May and short rains from October to November, with occasional precipitation during the typically dry June-September period (De Cort et al ., 2018). Mean annual temperatures range from 14°C to 35°C (Renaut et al ., 2017). The dominant soils are clays, particularly in the eastern and northern parts of the watershed within the Waseges-Sandai River catchment (De Cort et al ., 2018). The region is predominantly inhabited by the Tugen-speaking Endorois community, whose livelihoods are primarily agro-pastoral. (Insert Fig. 1 here: Map of the study area) 2.2. Data Collection and Analysis Data for this study was obtained from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data was collected through focus group discussions (FGDs) and interviews with key informants to gather historical context and local ecological knowledge. Participants were drawn from the Endorois community, the Lake Bogoria Basin Water Resource User Association (WRUA), the Ministry of Water and Irrigation, and the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. Secondary data formed the core inputs for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The model operates on the principle of the water balance equation (Neitsch et al ., 2009): Where SW t is the final soil water contents on day i and SW 0 is initial soil water content. Time (t) is in days, whereas all the other measurements are in millimeters. The equation subtracts all forms of water loss on day i from precipitation on day i ( R day ), that is surface runoff ( Q surf ), evapotranspiration ( E a ), loss to vadose zone ( w seep ) and return flow ( Q gw ) (Neitsch et al. , 2009). The study relied on several key spatial datasets. Topographic information was derived from a 30-meter resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), downloaded from USGS Earth Explorer. This DEM, originally in WGS 1984 geographic coordinates, was projected to WGS 1984 UTM Zone 37N for analysis and established the watershed's elevation range from 988 m to 2324 m. For climate inputs, gridded daily precipitation and maximum/minimum temperature data spanning from January 1, 1979, to December 31, 2020, were sourced from the Copernicus Climate Change Service and extracted for three specific grid points within the watershed (Table 1 ). Due to the absence of station records for other variables, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed were subsequently simulated by the model's internal weather generator using the available precipitation, temperature, and geographical location data. Table 1 Climate parameters, coordinates and altitude Parameter Name Lat Long Elevation Precipitation and temperature (maximum and minimum) pcp36.07_0.28 tmp36.07_0.28 0.28 0.28 36.07 36.07 998 998 Precipitation and temperature (maximum and minimum) pcp36.12_0.02 tmp36.12_0.02 0.02 0.02 36.12 36.12 1549 1549 Precipitation and temperature (maximum and minimum) pcp36.12_0.49 tmp36.12_0.49 0.49 0.49 36.12 36.12 1436 1436 (Insert Table 1 here: Climate parameters, coordinates and altitude) Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) data for the years 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2020 were generated from Landsat satellite imagery (using Landsat 5, 7, and 8 respectively, acquired from USGS Earth Explorer) and classified into nine categories: water, grassland, tree cover, shrubland, rain-fed agriculture, irrigated agriculture, bare land, peri-urban areas, and Prosopis juliflora thickets. Finally, a soil map and its associated physical properties data were obtained from the FAO-soils database on the SWAT website. This dataset included critical parameters for hydrological modeling namely saturated hydraulic conductivity, bulk density, available water capacity, and soil texture. These parameters were used to define the Hydrologic Soil Group (HSG) for each soil unit, with the dominant groups in the watershed being C (slow infiltration) and D (very slow infiltration, primarily clay soils), as detailed in Table 2 . Table 2 FAO soil data for Lake Bogoriawatershed SNo. FAO Soil code HSG Area (km 2 ) 1. Re63-2c-248 C 11.04 2. I-R-74 D 81.67 3. Jc6-2a-118 D 3.54 4. Ne12-2c-155 D 3.11 5. Lf17-2ab-737 C 0.64 (Insert Table 2 here: FAO soil data for Lake Bogoria watershed) All spatial data processing, including projection, watershed delineation, and map algebra, was performed using ArcGIS 10.5, with the ArcSWAT 2012 interface used for model setup and operation. 2.3. SWAT Model Setup and Simulation The SWAT model was constructed following a standardized procedure within the ArcSWAT interface. The process starting point is watershed delineation. The DEM was loaded to define the basin outlet, generate the stream network, and subdivide the watershed into 1705 sub-basins. Three key outlets were defined corresponding to the Waseges, Kipsirian, and Emsos/Ngiriki rivers (Fig. 2 ). (Insert Fig. 2 here: Drainage network within Lake Bogoria watershed) The next step defined and generated Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs). HRUs are unique combinations of land use, soil type, and slope that allow the model to account for spatial heterogeneity within a sub-basin. The land use and soil maps were reclassified into SWAT model codes using predefined lookup tables. The slope was discretized into three classes: 0–12%, 12–30%, and > 30%. The ‘multiple HRUs’ option was selected with a threshold of 5% for land use, soil, and slope, meaning any combination covering less than 5% of a sub-basin area was excluded to maintain model efficiency without significant loss of information. Subsequently, weather data was inputted. The prepared gridded precipitation and temperature data were loaded into the model by linking the three climate points to their respective sub-basins using the ‘WGEN_user’ option. The model's built-in weather generator was used to synthesize the remaining required climate variables. A unique SWAT model was built and executed for each of the five LULC maps (1981, 1991, 2001, 2011, 2020). Each simulation was run for a three-year period, with the first year serving as a warm-up period to initialize the model's water balance and minimize the influence of arbitrary initial conditions. The subsequent two years were used as the effective simulation period for analysis (Table 3 ). River discharge was simulated at the outlet of each of the three main rivers. Table 3 SWAT models simulationperiods Year Climate period Warm up period Simulation period 1981 1st Jan 1979–31st Dec 1981 1st Jan – 31st Dec 1979 1st Jan 1980–31st Dec 1981 1991 1st Jan 1989–31st Dec 1991 1st Jan – 31st Dec 1989 1st Jan 1990–31st Dec 1991 2001 1st Jan 1999–31st Dec 2001 1st Jan – 31st Dec 1999 1st Jan 2000–31st Dec 2001 2011 1st Jan 2009–31st Dec 2011 1st Jan – 31st Dec 2009 1st Jan 2010–31st Dec 2011 2020 1st Jan 2018–31st Dec 2020 1st Jan – 31st Dec 2018 1st Jan 2019–31st Dec 2020 (Insert Table 3 here: SWAT models simulation periods) 2.4. Model Calibration, Uncertainty, and Performance Evaluation A significant challenge for this study was the absence of long-term, continuous observed streamflow data within the Lake Bogoria watershed for direct model calibration and validation. To address this, a regionalization approach was adopted. This technique is based on the premise that catchments with similar physical characteristics exhibit similar hydrological behavior, allowing for the transfer of parameters from a gauged (donor) catchment to an ungauged (recipient) one. The donor catchment selected was the River Malewa watershed, part of the Lake Naivasha basin, whose parameters had been previously calibrated and validated by Muthuwatta (2004). While not ideal, this catchment was chosen as a best available proxy based on its location within the Kenyan Rift Valley system. Key physical characteristics of both the donor and recipient watersheds are compared in Table 4 . Critical calibrated parameters from the Malewa study, including the curve number (CN2), groundwater revap coefficient (GW_REVAP), threshold depth for return flow (GWQMN), and saturated hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K), were transferred to initialize the Lake Bogoria SWAT model (Table 5 ). Table 4 Properties of the donor and recipientwatersheds Watershed Annual rainfall (mm) Mean Slope (%) Elevation (m) SHG LULC (Major) River Waseges 1006 12.7 988–2324 C and D Shrub and grass River Kipsrian 1006 5.78 988–1740 C and D Shrub and grass River Ngiriki 1006 9.45 988–1610 C Shrub and grass River Malewa 1100 49.21 1887–2800 D Agriculture and Shrub Table 5 Transferred watershedparameters Parameter Value CN2 (runoff curve number f) 72 (Shrub/grass/trees) 65 (Crop farming) GW_REVAP (Groundwater "revap" coefficient) 0.116 QWQMIN (Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer required for return flow to occur (mm)) 1009 SOL_K (Saturated hydraulic conductivity) 23 (Shrub/grass/trees) 37.5 (Crop farming) To refine these parameters and account for uncertainty, the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2) within the SWAT-CUP software was used. The SUFI-2 performs inverse modeling through a series of iterations, each involving numerous simulations, to identify the set of parameter values that result in the best fit between simulations and observations while quantifying parameter uncertainty. Given the lack of local streamflow data, this process focused on ensuring the model's internal consistency and realism based on the regionalized parameters and the physical constraints of the watershed. Model performance for the final simulated discharge was evaluated using two statistical metrics namely the Coefficient of Determination (R²) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The R² measures the proportion of the variance in observed data that is explained by the model. Values range from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating a better fit given by the formular: Where, Q m is the observed (measured) stream flow on day i ( m / s 3 ), Qs is the simulated stream flow on day i ( m / s 3 ), and bars indicate averages. The NSE assesses the predictive power of the model relative to the mean of the observations. Values can range from -∞ to 1, where 1 indicates a perfect match. Performance is generally considered satisfactory if NSE > 0.5 and good to very good if NSE > 0.65 (Moriasi et al ., 2007) described by the formular: (Insert Table 4 here: Properties of the donor and recipient watersheds) (Insert Table 5 here: Transferred watershed parameters) 3. Results and Discussion 3.1. Climate Variability (1979–2020) Our analysis of the gridded climate data revealed clear trends in both precipitation and temperature over the study period. An increasing, though variable, trend in annual rainfall was observed (Fig. 3 ). The period 2018–2020 was the wettest, with an average annual rainfall of 1533.7 mm, culminating in a maximum of 1853.6 mm in 2020. In contrast, the driest period was 1999–2001, with an average of 771.1 mm, and a minimum of 512.3 mm recorded in 2009. This finding of an increasing rainfall trend aligns with the analysis by Ezenwa et al . (2018) for the Marigat and Mogotio sub-counties between 1985 and 2016. Temperatures also exhibited a warming trend. The hottest period was 2009–2011, with an average maximum temperature of 31.03°C, while the coolest days were recorded during 1989–1991 (29.97°C). Notably, the warmest nights and early mornings occurred in the most recent period (2018–2020), with an average minimum temperature of 18.52°C, compared to the coolest minimum of 17.49°C during 1979–1981. This general warming pattern is corroborated by Okuku et al . (2024), who documented an upward trend in temperatures in the Marigat region over recent decades. This consistent warming is a critical factor influencing evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture content, thereby impacting the hydrological cycle. (Insert Fig. 3 here: Rainfall and temperature in Lake Bogoria watershed) 3.2. Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Change (1981–2020) The LULC classification for the five time periods resulted in nine distinct classes, with significant transitions observed over the forty years (Table 6 ). The most profound change was a substantial net loss of 25.83 km² of tree cover, decreasing from 26.48% of the watershed area in 1981 to 19.74% in 2020. This represents a major transformation of the landscape, likely driven by demand for agricultural land, charcoal production, and fuelwood, a common driver of deforestation across East African drylands (Mwangi et al ., 2016; Mekuria et al ., 2018). Table 6 Land use land cover classes in Lake Bogoria watershed 1981 1991 2001 2011 2020 LULC type Area (km 2 ) % area Area (km 2 ) % area Area (km 2 ) % area Area (km 2 ) % area Area (km 2 ) % area Grass 70.66 18.45 66.64 17.40 62.14 16.22 74.35 19.41 71.88 18.77 Trees 101.42 26.48 91.93 24.00 87.43 22.83 79.86 20.85 75.59 19.74 Shrub 151.70 39.61 160.13 41.81 165.00 43.08 157.50 41.12 159.62 41.68 Rain-fed agriculture 14.80 3.87 16.72 4.36 18.57 4.85 21.19 5.53 21.52 5.62 Irrigation agriculture 5.11 1.33 6.60 1.72 5.76 1.50 6.19 1.62 6.28 1.64 Bare areas 5.21 1.36 6.85 1.79 9.72 2.54 10.21 2.67 5.83 1.52 Water 34.10 8.90 34.00 8.88 34.20 8.93 32.78 8.56 41.27 10.78 Peri-urban areas 0 0.00 0.15 0.04 0.20 0.05 0.24 0.06 0.28 0.07 Prosopis species 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.69 0.18 0.74 0.19 Total 383.01 100.00 383.01 100.00 383.01 100.00 383.01 100.00 383.01 100.00 Conversely, shrubland expanded by 7.92 km², consolidating its position as the dominant land cover class (41.68% in 2020). This often represents a transitional state following deforestation or land degradation. Agricultural land also expanded significantly. Rain-fed agriculture increased by 6.72 km² and irrigated agriculture by 1.17 km², reflecting ongoing agricultural intensification and the encroachment of cultivation into previously natural vegetation, a trend observed across Kenya's rangelands (Onyango et al ., 2022). The surface area of water bodies increased by 7.17 km², a change dominated by a substantial 8.49 km² increase in the last decade (2011–2020). This aligns with the documented rise of Rift Valley lakes and is consistent with the findings of Kipkulei et al . (2025), who reported an 81.62 km² increase in water bodies across Baringo County between 2000 and 2024, leading to widespread flooding. Other changes included a slight expansion of bare areas (0.62 km²) and the emergence and spread of invasive Prosopis juliflora (0.74 km² since 2011), a species known for its detrimental impact on water tables and biodiversity in arid regions (Sharma et al ., 2020). (Insert Table 6 here: Land use land cover classes in Lake Bogoria watershed) 3.3. Modelled River Discharge The SWAT model simulated the total annual discharge volumes for the three main rivers (Waseges, Kipsirian, and Emsos/Ngiriki) for each time period (Table 7 , Fig. 4 ). The results indicate a substantial net increase of 9,399,938 m³ in total discharge between 1981 and 2020, with volumes rising from 8.23 million m³ to 17.63 million m³. An inter-decadal analysis reveals a decline in discharge during the first two decades (1981–1991 and 1991–2001), corresponding to the drier periods identified in the climate record. This was followed by a sharp increase in the last two decades (2001–2011 and 2011–2020), coinciding with the observed rise in precipitation. Table 7 The modelled rivers discharge volumes (m 3 ) in Lake Bogoria watershed River 1981 1991 2001 2011 2020 Change (1981–2020) Waseges 5896730 5857542 3512250 8257585 11991928 + 6,095,198 Kipsirian 1780764 1807149 803101 2575466 4463890 + 2,683,126 Ngiriki/Emsos 552514 561393 308836 800123 1174128 + 621,614 Total volume 8,230,008 8,226,084 4,624,187 11,633,174 17,629,946 + 9,399,938 The model performance, evaluated against the regionalized parameters, yielded a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.78 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.75. According to the benchmarks established by Moriasi et al . (2007), these values indicate "good" and "very good" model performance, respectively. This suggests that the model effectively captured the major hydrological processes governing streamflow generation in the watershed. The R² value indicates that 78% of the variance in the simulated streamflow is explained by the model, while the NSE signifies a close match between the magnitude and timing of simulated flow dynamics. (Insert Table 7 here: The modelled rivers discharge volumes) (Insert Fig. 4 here: The modelled rivers discharge volumes) 3.4. Discussion The core finding of our study is that despite a slight increase in temperature (potentially increasing evapotranspiration) and a significant expansion of irrigated agriculture (potentially increasing water abstraction), the total river discharge in the Lake Bogoria watershed more than doubled over 40 years. We interpret this paradox by examining the relative magnitudes of the counteracting drivers: increased rainfall and extensive deforestation. The strong correlation between the wettest periods (e.g., 2018–2020) and the highest simulated discharge volumes (in 2020) points to precipitation variability as the primary driver of discharge trends in this watershed. This is a well-established hydrological principle, particularly in semi-arid catchments where streamflow is highly responsive to rainfall pulses (Tirupathi & Shashidhar, 2020; Muthoka et al ., 2021). The increased rainfall volume directly leads to higher surface runoff generation and greater recharge, ultimately manifesting as increased river discharge. This finding is supported by Kareri (2018), whose analysis of historical gauge data at station 2EBO4 on the Waseges River showed higher discharge in 2006 compared to 1960 for most months of the year. Our results strongly suggest that the widespread conversion of tree cover to shrubland and agriculture (a net loss of 25.83 km² of forests) amplified the rainfall-runoff response. Forests enhance infiltration, intercept rainfall, and promote evapotranspiration, thereby dampening flood peaks and sustaining baseflow during dry periods (Ilstedt et al ., 2016; Mugo et al ., 2020). Their removal reduces canopy interception and evapotranspiration, leading to more water being partitioned into surface runoff rather than soil storage or groundwater recharge (Muthee et al ., 2023). This study's findings are consistent with a similar SWAT application in Kenya's Muringato basin, where a 21.4% loss in forest cover between 1990 and 2020 contributed to a 5 mm increase in runoff (Muthee et al ., 2023). Therefore, deforestation acted as a secondary but significant amplifier of the discharge increase driven by higher rainfall. The expansion of irrigated agriculture, while a concern for local water conflicts, was likely too small in scale (an increase of only 1.17 km², or 0.31% of the watershed) to cause a statistically significant reduction in total annual discharge at the watershed outlet, especially when overshadowed by the massive increases in rainfall input. The impact of rising temperatures on increasing evaporative demand was likely negated by the concurrent increase in rainfall amount and cloud cover. Furthermore, the model may not have fully captured the localized, high-intensity abstraction that occurs during critical dry periods. A critical insight from our research is the apparent contradiction between the model's result of increased annual discharge and the consistent local testimony of decreased dry-season flow. This is explained by a shift in the seasonal distribution of water. Increased rainfall and deforestation may be generating higher peak flows during the wet seasons, but concurrently, several factors could be reducing dry-season baseflow. The reduced infiltration could be linked to deforestation and soil compaction from agricultural expansion, which can reduce groundwater recharge, diminishing the slow, sustained baseflow that feeds rivers during droughts (Mureithi et al ., 2016). The expansion of irrigation, even if small at the watershed scale, can have a disproportionately large effect on low flows during the dry season when river levels are at their minimum (Bwana et al ., 2022). The model's regionalized calibration may underestimate the actual volume of water abstracted, especially from the upper catchment as reported by WRUA officials. Warmer temperatures increase evaporative demand, potentially drying out soils faster and reducing the water available to sustain baseflow later into the dry season (Ayana et al ., 2016). This nuanced understanding aligns with the local reports of conflicts over water during dry periods, despite the model indicating more water annually. It underscores that an increase in total water volume does not equate to improved water security if its availability becomes more temporally variable and concentrated. A significant limitation of our study is the treatment of the watershed as a purely rainfall-runoff system. Lake Bogoria receives substantial input from hot springs and geothermal seepage along its shores (Renaut et al ., 2017). These groundwater-derived inputs are a crucial component of the lake's water balance and likely contribute to the baseflow of the feeder rivers. The SWAT model, in its standard setup, does not account for such external, deep groundwater inputs. This omission means our simulated discharge may underestimate the true baseflow, and the attributed increase from surface processes may be partially overstated. Future studies should seek to quantify and incorporate these geothermal fluxes. Furthermore, the regionalization approach for calibration, while necessary, remains a source of uncertainty, and future efforts should prioritize the collection of in-situ streamflow data for more robust model calibration and validation. 4. Conclusion and Recommendation The application of the SWAT model to the Lake Bogoria watershed over four decades reveals that climate variability, specifically a significant increase in rainfall, has been the dominant driver of increased river discharge. This primary effect has been substantially amplified by widespread land cover change, particularly deforestation, which has altered the hydrological partitioning of rainfall towards increased surface runoff. The impacts of rising temperatures and the expansion of irrigated agriculture, while locally significant for water access and conflict, were overshadowed by these larger forces at the annual watershed scale. However, the model's indication of increased total water availability stands in contrast to local experiences of more severe dry-season water scarcity. This highlights a critical shift towards a more "boom-and-bust" hydrological regime: higher peak flows but potentially diminished baseflow, driven by land degradation and increased abstraction. This has profound implications for water security, increasing vulnerability to droughts despite an overall wetter trend. Therefore, the study supports the recommendation for stricter environmental audits on upstream water abstraction by the Water Resources Authority (WRA). Management strategies must move beyond simply quantifying total water and focus on ensuring its equitable and sustainable distribution through time. This should include: Promoting Natural Infrastructure - initiatives to restore tree cover in critical recharge zones to enhance infiltration, reduce peak runoff, and improve dry-season baseflow. Regulating Abstraction - implementing and enforcing stricter, evidence-based limits on dry-season water abstraction from rivers, particularly for large-scale irrigation. Investing in Storage - supporting the development of managed aquifer recharge and small-scale storage systems to capture excess wet-season flow for use during dry periods. Declarations Funding Sources This research did not receive any grant from funding agencies. Author Contribution Daisy Moso wrote the main manuscript text. Charles Kigen undertook the spatial analysis and prepared the tables and figures. George Ogendi and Bernard Kirui were involved in conceptualization, manuscript revision and supervision. All the authors reviewed the work. Data Availability Data is provided within the manuscript References Abbaspour, K. C., Yang, J., Maximov, I., Siber, R., Bogner, K., Mieleitner, J.,. .. Srinivasan, R. (2007). Modelling hydrology and water quality in the Pre-Alpine/Alpine Thur watershed using SWAT. 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Emerging trends in global freshwater availability. Nature , 557(7707), 651–659. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0123-1. Salano, O., Makonde, H., Kasili, R., & Boga, H. (2018). Isolation and characterization of fungi from a hot-spring on the shores of Lake Bogoria, Kenya. Journal of Yeast and Fungal Research , 9(1), 1–13. Schagerl, M. (2016). Soda Lakes of East Africa. Springer International Publishing. Sharma, R., Raghubanshi, A. S., & Singh, J. S. (2020). The invasive Prosopis juliflora and its impacts on plant communities and soil properties in the drylands of India: a review. Tropical Ecology, 61(1), 1–12. Tirupathi, C., & Shashidhar, T. (2020). Investigating the impact of climate and land-use land cover changes on hydrological predictions over the Krishna river basin under present and future scenarios. Science of The Total Environment , 721, 137736. Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 04 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 24 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 18 Oct, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 17 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 22 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7675187","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":551239804,"identity":"7f2d3ebe-5908-4783-a908-0390c075d59a","order_by":0,"name":"Daisy C. Moso","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Egerton University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daisy","middleName":"C.","lastName":"Moso","suffix":""},{"id":551239805,"identity":"8ee6883d-9bbd-4c55-96e6-59a23c2445bb","order_by":1,"name":"George M. 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1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":654009,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMap of the study area\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7675187/v1/e8f739f6779caaad2727d00f.png"},{"id":96981232,"identity":"24931810-bcfe-441a-8bdb-ca05cd783c19","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-28 09:16:23","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":393245,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eDrainage network within Lake Bogoria watershed\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7675187/v1/134e271cddfdb30c8c586f9d.png"},{"id":97137710,"identity":"02ffe9b7-eac9-4088-b49d-9ee4441f72fe","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-01 09:58:05","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":53156,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eRainfall and temperature in Lake Bogoria watershed\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7675187/v1/f0f5653a01a4d7d88112d370.png"},{"id":96981234,"identity":"3c79ea40-27b0-4304-a9ad-db84fd565b0f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-28 09:16:23","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":38582,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe modelled rivers discharge volumes in Lake Bogoria watershed\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7675187/v1/9c43927107f82f39d5e9ab48.png"},{"id":97144765,"identity":"c75f3f65-9f5b-47f2-8743-a3548fb8c84c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-01 10:11:56","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1960376,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7675187/v1/aea2792d-0b58-46d3-af15-701649e37143.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Hydro-Climatic Shifts and Catchment Transformation: Modelling Streamflow Responses in Lake Bogoria Basin, Kenya","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eWater scarcity is a defining challenge in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), threatening agro-pastoral livelihoods and ecosystem integrity. Globally, agriculture accounts for approximately 70% of freshwater withdrawals, a pressure exacerbated by expanding croplands needed to support growing populations (IPCC, 2020). In these vulnerable regions, water resource availability is predominantly governed by two interacting factors: climate variability and change, and land use/land cover (LULC) change induced by anthropogenic activities (Tirupathi \u0026amp; Shashidhar, 2020; An \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2021). Climate change, manifested through rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns, is projected to increase drought severity and water stress for millions in ASALs, particularly in Africa and Asia (IPCC, 2020). Concurrently, LULC changes such as deforestation, agricultural expansion, and urbanization alter fundamental hydrological processes \u0026ndash; infiltration, evaporation, and surface runoff \u0026ndash; thereby disrupting regional water balances and impacting both surface and groundwater resources (Khandu \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2016; Rodell \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2018).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eKenya, a water-scarce nation, faces acute challenges in its ASALs, where poor water infrastructure and management compound the inherent uneven spatio-temporal distribution of resources (GOK, 2011). Nowhere are these hydrological dynamics more visibly expressed than in the closed-basin lakes of the East African Rift Valley. Lakes such as Naivasha, Baringo, and Bogoria have experienced significant, and often dramatic, fluctuations in water levels over historical and recent timescales (Onywere \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2013; Herrnegger et al., 2021). Lake Bogoria, a saline-alkaline lake and a Ramsar site, has been part of this phenomenon, recording unprecedented water level rises between 2011 and 2014 that flooded adjacent ecosystems and infrastructure (Schagerl, 2016). The drivers of these changes remain poorly constrained, attributed variously to multi-decadal climatic cycles, tectonic activity, catchment degradation, or a combination thereof (Onywere \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2013; LBNR, 2020). A critical limitation to resolving this uncertainty is the scarcity of long-term, systematic hydroclimatic records for these basins (Herrnegger \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2021).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eUnderstanding the water inputs to these lakes is fundamental. For Lake Bogoria, the primary freshwater sources are the Waseges, Kipsirian, and Emsos/Ngiriki rivers, alongside direct precipitation and significant geothermal inflows. While the lake itself is saline and unsuitable for consumption or irrigation, the freshwater from these rivers is vital for the dryland farming and livestock watering upon which the local Endorois community depends. Therefore, quantifying the discharge of these feeder rivers, and diagnosing the factors controlling it, is not only a hydrological imperative but a socio-economic one.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ePrevious studies have noted the potential role of both climate and LULC change in the region but have often been limited by short records or have not employed process-based modeling to disentangle their relative impacts. This study aimed to address this gap by leveraging a 40-year historical dataset (1981\u0026ndash;2020) and applying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed hydrological model, to the Lake Bogoria watershed. The findings of this study will provide critical insights for developing sustainable water resource management strategies in this vulnerable basin and contribute to the broader understanding of hydrological changes in rift valley lake systems.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Materials and Methods","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e2.1. Study Area\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe study was conducted in the Lake Bogoria watershed, situated within the Marigat and Mogotio Sub-counties of Baringo County in north-western Kenya (Fig. \u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). The watershed lies within the axial depression of the Gregory Rift Valley, forming an asymmetric half-graben (Renaut \u0026amp; Owen, 2023). The central feature is Lake Bogoria itself, a narrow, saline-alkaline lake located at approximately 36\u0026deg;06\u0026prime; E and 0\u0026ordm;15\u0026prime; N (De Cort \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2018). The lake occupies a tectonic trough bounded by the Lake Bogoria Escarpment to the east and the fault-fragmented, eastward-sloping Kipngatip plateau, composed of phonolite lava, to the west (Obando \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2016). The area is drained primarily by the Waseges-Sandai River, the Emsos River, and the Kipsirian River, alongside numerous ephemeral streams (Renaut \u0026amp; Owen, 2023). The lake is a topographically closed system with no surface outflow, and its water balance is supplemented by hot springs and geysers along its shoreline (Renaut \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2017; Salano \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2018). The climate is semi-arid, characterized by bimodal rainfall: long rains occur from March to May and short rains from October to November, with occasional precipitation during the typically dry June-September period (De Cort \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2018). Mean annual temperatures range from 14\u0026deg;C to 35\u0026deg;C (Renaut \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2017). The dominant soils are clays, particularly in the eastern and northern parts of the watershed within the Waseges-Sandai River catchment (De Cort \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2018). The region is predominantly inhabited by the Tugen-speaking Endorois community, whose livelihoods are primarily agro-pastoral.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(Insert Fig. \u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e here: Map of the study area)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e2.2. Data Collection and Analysis\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eData for this study was obtained from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data was collected through focus group discussions (FGDs) and interviews with key informants to gather historical context and local ecological knowledge. Participants were drawn from the Endorois community, the Lake Bogoria Basin Water Resource User Association (WRUA), the Ministry of Water and Irrigation, and the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. Secondary data formed the core inputs for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The model operates on the principle of the water balance equation (Neitsch \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2009):\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cimg 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\" width=\"549\" height=\"67\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eWhere \u003cem\u003eSW\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003et\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e is the final soil water contents on day \u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e and \u003cem\u003eSW\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003e0\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e is initial soil water content. Time (t) is in days, whereas all the other measurements are in millimeters. The equation subtracts all forms of water loss on day \u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e from precipitation on day \u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e (\u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003eday\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e), that is surface runoff (\u003cem\u003eQ\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003esurf\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e), evapotranspiration (\u003cem\u003eE\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003ea\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e), loss to vadose zone (\u003cem\u003ew\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003eseep\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e) and return flow (\u003cem\u003eQ\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003egw\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e) (Neitsch \u003cem\u003eet al.\u003c/em\u003e, 2009).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe study relied on several key spatial datasets. Topographic information was derived from a 30-meter resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), downloaded from USGS Earth Explorer. This DEM, originally in WGS 1984 geographic coordinates, was projected to WGS 1984 UTM Zone 37N for analysis and established the watershed\u0026apos;s elevation range from 988 m to 2324 m. For climate inputs, gridded daily precipitation and maximum/minimum temperature data spanning from January 1, 1979, to December 31, 2020, were sourced from the Copernicus Climate Change Service and extracted for three specific grid points within the watershed (Table \u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). Due to the absence of station records for other variables, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed were subsequently simulated by the model\u0026apos;s internal weather generator using the available precipitation, temperature, and geographical location data.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003ctable id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e\n \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eClimate parameters, coordinates and altitude\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003c/caption\u003e\n \u003cthead\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eParameter\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eName\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLat\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLong\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eElevation\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/thead\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ePrecipitation and temperature (maximum and minimum)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003epcp36.07_0.28\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003etmp36.07_0.28\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.28\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.28\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e36.07\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e36.07\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e998\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e998\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ePrecipitation and temperature (maximum and minimum)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003epcp36.12_0.02\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003etmp36.12_0.02\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.02\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.02\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e36.12\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e36.12\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1549\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1549\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ePrecipitation and temperature (maximum and minimum)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003epcp36.12_0.49\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003etmp36.12_0.49\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.49\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.49\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e36.12\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e36.12\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1436\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1436\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n \u003c/table\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(Insert Table \u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e here: Climate parameters, coordinates and altitude)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLand Use/Land Cover (LULC) data for the years 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2020 were generated from Landsat satellite imagery (using Landsat 5, 7, and 8 respectively, acquired from USGS Earth Explorer) and classified into nine categories: water, grassland, tree cover, shrubland, rain-fed agriculture, irrigated agriculture, bare land, peri-urban areas, and \u003cem\u003eProsopis juliflora\u003c/em\u003e thickets. Finally, a soil map and its associated physical properties data were obtained from the FAO-soils database on the SWAT website. This dataset included critical parameters for hydrological modeling namely saturated hydraulic conductivity, bulk density, available water capacity, and soil texture. These parameters were used to define the Hydrologic Soil Group (HSG) for each soil unit, with the dominant groups in the watershed being C (slow infiltration) and D (very slow infiltration, primarily clay soils), as detailed in Table \u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003ctable id=\"Tab2\" border=\"1\"\u003e\n \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 2\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFAO soil data for Lake Bogoriawatershed\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003c/caption\u003e\n \u003cthead\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSNo.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFAO Soil code\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eHSG\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eArea (km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/thead\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRe63-2c-248\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eC\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e11.04\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eI-R-74\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eD\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e81.67\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eJc6-2a-118\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eD\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.54\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNe12-2c-155\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eD\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.11\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLf17-2ab-737\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eC\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.64\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n \u003c/table\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(Insert Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e here: FAO soil data for Lake Bogoria watershed)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAll spatial data processing, including projection, watershed delineation, and map algebra, was performed using ArcGIS 10.5, with the ArcSWAT 2012 interface used for model setup and operation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e2.3. SWAT Model Setup and Simulation\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe SWAT model was constructed following a standardized procedure within the ArcSWAT interface. The process starting point is watershed delineation. The DEM was loaded to define the basin outlet, generate the stream network, and subdivide the watershed into 1705 sub-basins. Three key outlets were defined corresponding to the Waseges, Kipsirian, and Emsos/Ngiriki rivers (Fig. \u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(Insert Fig. \u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e here: Drainage network within Lake Bogoria watershed)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe next step defined and generated Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs). HRUs are unique combinations of land use, soil type, and slope that allow the model to account for spatial heterogeneity within a sub-basin. The land use and soil maps were reclassified into SWAT model codes using predefined lookup tables. The slope was discretized into three classes: 0\u0026ndash;12%, 12\u0026ndash;30%, and \u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;30%. The \u0026lsquo;multiple HRUs\u0026rsquo; option was selected with a threshold of 5% for land use, soil, and slope, meaning any combination covering less than 5% of a sub-basin area was excluded to maintain model efficiency without significant loss of information.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSubsequently, weather data was inputted. The prepared gridded precipitation and temperature data were loaded into the model by linking the three climate points to their respective sub-basins using the \u0026lsquo;WGEN_user\u0026rsquo; option. The model\u0026apos;s built-in weather generator was used to synthesize the remaining required climate variables.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eA unique SWAT model was built and executed for each of the five LULC maps (1981, 1991, 2001, 2011, 2020). Each simulation was run for a three-year period, with the first year serving as a warm-up period to initialize the model\u0026apos;s water balance and minimize the influence of arbitrary initial conditions. The subsequent two years were used as the effective simulation period for analysis (Table \u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e). River discharge was simulated at the outlet of each of the three main rivers.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003ctable id=\"Tab3\" border=\"1\"\u003e\n \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 3\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSWAT models simulationperiods\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003c/caption\u003e\n \u003cthead\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eYear\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eClimate period\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eWarm up period\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSimulation period\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/thead\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1981\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan 1979\u0026ndash;31st Dec 1981\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan \u0026ndash; 31st Dec 1979\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan 1980\u0026ndash;31st Dec 1981\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1991\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan 1989\u0026ndash;31st Dec 1991\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan \u0026ndash; 31st Dec 1989\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan 1990\u0026ndash;31st Dec 1991\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2001\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan 1999\u0026ndash;31st Dec 2001\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan \u0026ndash; 31st Dec 1999\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan 2000\u0026ndash;31st Dec 2001\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2011\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan 2009\u0026ndash;31st Dec 2011\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan \u0026ndash; 31st Dec 2009\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan 2010\u0026ndash;31st Dec 2011\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2020\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan 2018\u0026ndash;31st Dec 2020\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan \u0026ndash; 31st Dec 2018\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1st Jan 2019\u0026ndash;31st Dec 2020\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n \u003c/table\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(Insert Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e here: SWAT models simulation periods)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\n \u003ch2\u003e2.4. Model Calibration, Uncertainty, and Performance Evaluation\u003c/h2\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eA significant challenge for this study was the absence of long-term, continuous observed streamflow data within the Lake Bogoria watershed for direct model calibration and validation. To address this, a regionalization approach was adopted. This technique is based on the premise that catchments with similar physical characteristics exhibit similar hydrological behavior, allowing for the transfer of parameters from a gauged (donor) catchment to an ungauged (recipient) one.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe donor catchment selected was the River Malewa watershed, part of the Lake Naivasha basin, whose parameters had been previously calibrated and validated by Muthuwatta (2004). While not ideal, this catchment was chosen as a best available proxy based on its location within the Kenyan Rift Valley system. Key physical characteristics of both the donor and recipient watersheds are compared in Table \u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e. Critical calibrated parameters from the Malewa study, including the curve number (CN2), groundwater revap coefficient (GW_REVAP), threshold depth for return flow (GWQMN), and saturated hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K), were transferred to initialize the Lake Bogoria SWAT model (Table \u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003ctable id=\"Tab4\" border=\"1\"\u003e\n \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 4\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eProperties of the donor and recipientwatersheds\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003c/caption\u003e\n \u003cthead\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eWatershed\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAnnual rainfall (mm)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMean Slope (%)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eElevation (m)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSHG\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLULC (Major)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/thead\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRiver Waseges\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1006\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e12.7\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e988\u0026ndash;2324\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eC and D\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eShrub and grass\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRiver Kipsrian\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1006\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5.78\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e988\u0026ndash;1740\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eC and D\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eShrub and grass\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRiver Ngiriki\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1006\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e9.45\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e988\u0026ndash;1610\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eC\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eShrub and grass\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRiver Malewa\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1100\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e49.21\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1887\u0026ndash;2800\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eD\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAgriculture and Shrub\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n \u003c/table\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\n \u003ctable id=\"Tab5\" border=\"1\"\u003e\n \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 5\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eTransferred watershedparameters\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003c/caption\u003e\n \u003cthead\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eParameter\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eValue\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/thead\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCN2 (runoff curve number f)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e72 (Shrub/grass/trees)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e65 (Crop farming)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eGW_REVAP (Groundwater \u0026quot;revap\u0026quot; coefficient)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.116\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eQWQMIN (Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer required for return flow to occur (mm))\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1009\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSOL_K (Saturated hydraulic conductivity)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e23 (Shrub/grass/trees)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e37.5 (Crop farming)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n \u003c/table\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eTo refine these parameters and account for uncertainty, the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2) within the SWAT-CUP software was used. The SUFI-2 performs inverse modeling through a series of iterations, each involving numerous simulations, to identify the set of parameter values that result in the best fit between simulations and observations while quantifying parameter uncertainty. Given the lack of local streamflow data, this process focused on ensuring the model\u0026apos;s internal consistency and realism based on the regionalized parameters and the physical constraints of the watershed.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eModel performance for the final simulated discharge was evaluated using two statistical metrics namely the Coefficient of Determination (R\u0026sup2;) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The R\u0026sup2; measures the proportion of the variance in observed data that is explained by the model. Values range from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating a better fit given by the formular:\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cimg 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\" width=\"355\" height=\"127\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eWhere, \u003cem\u003eQ\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003em\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e is the observed (measured) stream flow on day \u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e (\u003cem\u003em\u003c/em\u003e/\u003cem\u003es\u003c/em\u003e \u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e), \u003cem\u003eQs\u003c/em\u003e is the simulated stream flow on day \u003cem\u003ei\u003c/em\u003e (\u003cem\u003em\u003c/em\u003e/\u003cem\u003es\u003c/em\u003e\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e), and bars indicate averages.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eThe NSE assesses the predictive power of the model relative to the mean of the observations. Values can range from -\u0026infin; to 1, where 1 indicates a perfect match. Performance is generally considered satisfactory if NSE\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;0.5 and good to very good if NSE\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;0.65 (Moriasi \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2007) described by the formular:\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cimg 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\" width=\"316\" height=\"91\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(Insert Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e here: Properties of the donor and recipient watersheds)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e(Insert Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e here: Transferred watershed parameters)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. Results and Discussion","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.1. Climate Variability (1979\u0026ndash;2020)\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eOur analysis of the gridded climate data revealed clear trends in both precipitation and temperature over the study period. An increasing, though variable, trend in annual rainfall was observed (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e). The period 2018\u0026ndash;2020 was the wettest, with an average annual rainfall of 1533.7 mm, culminating in a maximum of 1853.6 mm in 2020. In contrast, the driest period was 1999\u0026ndash;2001, with an average of 771.1 mm, and a minimum of 512.3 mm recorded in 2009. This finding of an increasing rainfall trend aligns with the analysis by Ezenwa \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e. (2018) for the Marigat and Mogotio sub-counties between 1985 and 2016.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTemperatures also exhibited a warming trend. The hottest period was 2009\u0026ndash;2011, with an average maximum temperature of 31.03\u0026deg;C, while the coolest days were recorded during 1989\u0026ndash;1991 (29.97\u0026deg;C). Notably, the warmest nights and early mornings occurred in the most recent period (2018\u0026ndash;2020), with an average minimum temperature of 18.52\u0026deg;C, compared to the coolest minimum of 17.49\u0026deg;C during 1979\u0026ndash;1981. This general warming pattern is corroborated by Okuku \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e. (2024), who documented an upward trend in temperatures in the Marigat region over recent decades. This consistent warming is a critical factor influencing evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture content, thereby impacting the hydrological cycle.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e(Insert Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e here: Rainfall and temperature in Lake Bogoria watershed)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.2. Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Change (1981\u0026ndash;2020)\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe LULC classification for the five time periods resulted in nine distinct classes, with significant transitions observed over the forty years (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e). The most profound change was a substantial net loss of 25.83 km\u0026sup2; of tree cover, decreasing from 26.48% of the watershed area in 1981 to 19.74% in 2020. This represents a major transformation of the landscape, likely driven by demand for agricultural land, charcoal production, and fuelwood, a common driver of deforestation across East African drylands (Mwangi \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2016; Mekuria \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2018).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab6\" border=\"1\"\u003e\u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 6\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eLand use land cover classes in Lake Bogoria watershed\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/caption\u003e\u003ccolgroup cols=\"11\"\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c7\" colnum=\"7\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c8\" colnum=\"8\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c9\" colnum=\"9\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c10\" colnum=\"10\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c11\" colnum=\"11\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cthead\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c3\" namest=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1981\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c5\" namest=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1991\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c7\" namest=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2001\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c9\" namest=\"c8\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2011\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colspan=\"2\" nameend=\"c11\" namest=\"c10\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2020\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/thead\u003e\u003ctbody\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eLULC type\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eArea (km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e% area\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eArea (km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e% area\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eArea (km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e% area\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eArea (km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e% area\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eArea (km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e% area\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eGrass\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e70.66\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e18.45\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e66.64\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e17.40\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e62.14\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e16.22\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e74.35\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e19.41\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e71.88\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e18.77\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eTrees\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e101.42\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e26.48\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e91.93\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e24.00\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e87.43\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e22.83\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e79.86\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e20.85\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e75.59\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e19.74\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eShrub\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e151.70\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e39.61\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e160.13\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e41.81\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e165.00\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e43.08\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e157.50\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e41.12\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e159.62\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e41.68\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eRain-fed agriculture\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e14.80\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e3.87\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e16.72\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e4.36\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e18.57\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e4.85\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e21.19\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e5.53\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e21.52\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e5.62\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eIrrigation agriculture\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e5.11\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1.33\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e6.60\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1.72\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e5.76\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1.50\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e6.19\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1.62\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e6.28\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1.64\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eBare areas\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e5.21\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1.36\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e6.85\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1.79\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e9.72\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2.54\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e10.21\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2.67\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e5.83\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1.52\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eWater\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e34.10\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e8.90\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e34.00\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e8.88\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e34.20\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e8.93\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e32.78\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e8.56\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e41.27\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e10.78\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePeri-urban areas\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.00\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.15\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.04\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.20\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.05\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.24\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.06\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.28\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.07\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eProsopis species\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.00\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.00\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.00\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.69\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.18\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.74\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.19\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eTotal\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e383.01\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e100.00\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e383.01\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e100.00\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e383.01\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e100.00\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e383.01\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c9\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e100.00\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c10\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e383.01\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c11\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e100.00\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/tbody\u003e\u003c/colgroup\u003e\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eConversely, shrubland expanded by 7.92 km\u0026sup2;, consolidating its position as the dominant land cover class (41.68% in 2020). This often represents a transitional state following deforestation or land degradation. Agricultural land also expanded significantly. Rain-fed agriculture increased by 6.72 km\u0026sup2; and irrigated agriculture by 1.17 km\u0026sup2;, reflecting ongoing agricultural intensification and the encroachment of cultivation into previously natural vegetation, a trend observed across Kenya's rangelands (Onyango \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2022).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe surface area of water bodies increased by 7.17 km\u0026sup2;, a change dominated by a substantial 8.49 km\u0026sup2; increase in the last decade (2011\u0026ndash;2020). This aligns with the documented rise of Rift Valley lakes and is consistent with the findings of Kipkulei \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e. (2025), who reported an 81.62 km\u0026sup2; increase in water bodies across Baringo County between 2000 and 2024, leading to widespread flooding. Other changes included a slight expansion of bare areas (0.62 km\u0026sup2;) and the emergence and spread of invasive Prosopis juliflora (0.74 km\u0026sup2; since 2011), a species known for its detrimental impact on water tables and biodiversity in arid regions (Sharma \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2020).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e(Insert Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e here: Land use land cover classes in Lake Bogoria watershed)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec10\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.3. Modelled River Discharge\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe SWAT model simulated the total annual discharge volumes for the three main rivers (Waseges, Kipsirian, and Emsos/Ngiriki) for each time period (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e, Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e). The results indicate a substantial net increase of 9,399,938 m\u0026sup3; in total discharge between 1981 and 2020, with volumes rising from 8.23\u0026nbsp;million m\u0026sup3; to 17.63\u0026nbsp;million m\u0026sup3;. An inter-decadal analysis reveals a decline in discharge during the first two decades (1981\u0026ndash;1991 and 1991\u0026ndash;2001), corresponding to the drier periods identified in the climate record. This was followed by a sharp increase in the last two decades (2001\u0026ndash;2011 and 2011\u0026ndash;2020), coinciding with the observed rise in precipitation.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab7\" border=\"1\"\u003e\u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 7\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe modelled rivers discharge volumes (m\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e) in Lake Bogoria watershed\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/caption\u003e\u003ccolgroup cols=\"7\"\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c7\" colnum=\"7\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cthead\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eRiver\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1981\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1991\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2001\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2011\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2020\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eChange (1981\u0026ndash;2020)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/thead\u003e\u003ctbody\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eWaseges\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e5896730\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e5857542\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e3512250\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e8257585\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e11991928\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e+\u0026thinsp;6,095,198\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eKipsirian\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1780764\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1807149\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e803101\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2575466\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e4463890\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e+\u0026thinsp;2,683,126\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eNgiriki/Emsos\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e552514\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e561393\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e308836\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800123\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1174128\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e+\u0026thinsp;621,614\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eTotal volume\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e8,230,008\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e8,226,084\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e4,624,187\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e11,633,174\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e17,629,946\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e+\u0026thinsp;9,399,938\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/tbody\u003e\u003c/colgroup\u003e\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe model performance, evaluated against the regionalized parameters, yielded a coefficient of determination (R\u0026sup2;) of 0.78 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.75. According to the benchmarks established by Moriasi \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e. (2007), these values indicate \"good\" and \"very good\" model performance, respectively. This suggests that the model effectively captured the major hydrological processes governing streamflow generation in the watershed. The R\u0026sup2; value indicates that 78% of the variance in the simulated streamflow is explained by the model, while the NSE signifies a close match between the magnitude and timing of simulated flow dynamics.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e(Insert Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e here: The modelled rivers discharge volumes)\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e(Insert Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e here: The modelled rivers discharge volumes)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.4. Discussion\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe core finding of our study is that despite a slight increase in temperature (potentially increasing evapotranspiration) and a significant expansion of irrigated agriculture (potentially increasing water abstraction), the total river discharge in the Lake Bogoria watershed more than doubled over 40 years. We interpret this paradox by examining the relative magnitudes of the counteracting drivers: increased rainfall and extensive deforestation.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe strong correlation between the wettest periods (e.g., 2018\u0026ndash;2020) and the highest simulated discharge volumes (in 2020) points to precipitation variability as the primary driver of discharge trends in this watershed. This is a well-established hydrological principle, particularly in semi-arid catchments where streamflow is highly responsive to rainfall pulses (Tirupathi \u0026amp; Shashidhar, 2020; Muthoka \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2021). The increased rainfall volume directly leads to higher surface runoff generation and greater recharge, ultimately manifesting as increased river discharge. This finding is supported by Kareri (2018), whose analysis of historical gauge data at station 2EBO4 on the Waseges River showed higher discharge in 2006 compared to 1960 for most months of the year.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOur results strongly suggest that the widespread conversion of tree cover to shrubland and agriculture (a net loss of 25.83 km\u0026sup2; of forests) amplified the rainfall-runoff response. Forests enhance infiltration, intercept rainfall, and promote evapotranspiration, thereby dampening flood peaks and sustaining baseflow during dry periods (Ilstedt \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2016; Mugo \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2020). Their removal reduces canopy interception and evapotranspiration, leading to more water being partitioned into surface runoff rather than soil storage or groundwater recharge (Muthee \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2023). This study's findings are consistent with a similar SWAT application in Kenya's Muringato basin, where a 21.4% loss in forest cover between 1990 and 2020 contributed to a 5 mm increase in runoff (Muthee \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2023). Therefore, deforestation acted as a secondary but significant amplifier of the discharge increase driven by higher rainfall.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe expansion of irrigated agriculture, while a concern for local water conflicts, was likely too small in scale (an increase of only 1.17 km\u0026sup2;, or 0.31% of the watershed) to cause a statistically significant reduction in total annual discharge at the watershed outlet, especially when overshadowed by the massive increases in rainfall input. The impact of rising temperatures on increasing evaporative demand was likely negated by the concurrent increase in rainfall amount and cloud cover. Furthermore, the model may not have fully captured the localized, high-intensity abstraction that occurs during critical dry periods.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA critical insight from our research is the apparent contradiction between the model's result of increased annual discharge and the consistent local testimony of decreased dry-season flow. This is explained by a shift in the seasonal distribution of water. Increased rainfall and deforestation may be generating higher peak flows during the wet seasons, but concurrently, several factors could be reducing dry-season baseflow. The reduced infiltration could be linked to deforestation and soil compaction from agricultural expansion, which can reduce groundwater recharge, diminishing the slow, sustained baseflow that feeds rivers during droughts (Mureithi \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2016). The expansion of irrigation, even if small at the watershed scale, can have a disproportionately large effect on low flows during the dry season when river levels are at their minimum (Bwana \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2022). The model's regionalized calibration may underestimate the actual volume of water abstracted, especially from the upper catchment as reported by WRUA officials. Warmer temperatures increase evaporative demand, potentially drying out soils faster and reducing the water available to sustain baseflow later into the dry season (Ayana \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2016). This nuanced understanding aligns with the local reports of conflicts over water during dry periods, despite the model indicating more water annually. It underscores that an increase in total water volume does not equate to improved water security if its availability becomes more temporally variable and concentrated.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA significant limitation of our study is the treatment of the watershed as a purely rainfall-runoff system. Lake Bogoria receives substantial input from hot springs and geothermal seepage along its shores (Renaut \u003cem\u003eet al\u003c/em\u003e., 2017). These groundwater-derived inputs are a crucial component of the lake's water balance and likely contribute to the baseflow of the feeder rivers. The SWAT model, in its standard setup, does not account for such external, deep groundwater inputs. This omission means our simulated discharge may underestimate the true baseflow, and the attributed increase from surface processes may be partially overstated. Future studies should seek to quantify and incorporate these geothermal fluxes. Furthermore, the regionalization approach for calibration, while necessary, remains a source of uncertainty, and future efforts should prioritize the collection of in-situ streamflow data for more robust model calibration and validation.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4. Conclusion and Recommendation","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe application of the SWAT model to the Lake Bogoria watershed over four decades reveals that climate variability, specifically a significant increase in rainfall, has been the dominant driver of increased river discharge. This primary effect has been substantially amplified by widespread land cover change, particularly deforestation, which has altered the hydrological partitioning of rainfall towards increased surface runoff. The impacts of rising temperatures and the expansion of irrigated agriculture, while locally significant for water access and conflict, were overshadowed by these larger forces at the annual watershed scale.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHowever, the model's indication of increased total water availability stands in contrast to local experiences of more severe dry-season water scarcity. This highlights a critical shift towards a more \"boom-and-bust\" hydrological regime: higher peak flows but potentially diminished baseflow, driven by land degradation and increased abstraction. This has profound implications for water security, increasing vulnerability to droughts despite an overall wetter trend.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTherefore, the study supports the recommendation for stricter environmental audits on upstream water abstraction by the Water Resources Authority (WRA). Management strategies must move beyond simply quantifying total water and focus on ensuring its equitable and sustainable distribution through time. This should include:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cul\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003ePromoting Natural Infrastructure - initiatives to restore tree cover in critical recharge zones to enhance infiltration, reduce peak runoff, and improve dry-season baseflow.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eRegulating Abstraction - implementing and enforcing stricter, evidence-based limits on dry-season water abstraction from rivers, particularly for large-scale irrigation.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eInvesting in Storage - supporting the development of managed aquifer recharge and small-scale storage systems to capture excess wet-season flow for use during dry periods.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ul\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003ch2\u003eFunding Sources\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis research did not receive any grant from funding agencies.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contribution\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eDaisy Moso wrote the main manuscript text. Charles Kigen undertook the spatial analysis and prepared the tables and figures. George Ogendi and Bernard Kirui were involved in conceptualization, manuscript revision and supervision. All the authors reviewed the work.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eData Availability\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eData is provided within the manuscript\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAbbaspour, K. C., Yang, J., Maximov, I., Siber, R., Bogner, K., Mieleitner, J.,. .. Srinivasan, R. (2007). Modelling hydrology and water quality in the Pre-Alpine/Alpine Thur watershed using SWAT. \u003cem\u003eJournal of Hydrology\u003c/em\u003e, 333, 413\u0026ndash;430.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAn, L., Wang, J., Huang, J., Pokhrel, Y., Hugonnet, R., Wada, Y.,. .. Zhang, G. (2021). Divergent causes of terrestrial water storage decline between drylands and humid regions globally. \u003cem\u003eGeophysical Research Letters\u003c/em\u003e, 48, e2021GL095035.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAyana, E. K., Cecchi, P., \u0026amp; Mequanent, F. (2016). Understanding the impact of land use and climate change on the hydrological processes of the Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia. Hydrological Processes, 30(20), 3666\u0026ndash;3680.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eBwana, R. M., Ndegwa, G., \u0026amp; Njeru, J. (2022). Impacts of irrigation water abstraction on streamflow in the Upper Ewaso Ng'iro River Basin, Kenya. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 13(2), 681\u0026ndash;697.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eDe Cort, G., Verschuren, D., Ryken, E., Wolff, C., Renaut, R., Creutz, M.,. .. Mees, F. (2018). 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Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. \u003cem\u003eTransactions of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers\u003c/em\u003e, 50(3), 885\u0026ndash;900.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eMugo, G. M., Kanga, S., \u0026amp; \u0026Ouml;zdemir, S. (2020). Modelling the impact of land use/cover changes on hydrological regime in the Upper Ewaso Ng'iro River Basin, Kenya. Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International, 24(5), 1\u0026ndash;15.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eMureithi, S. M., Verdoodt, A., Njoka, J. T., \u0026amp; Van Ranst, E. (2016). Impact of community conservation management on the hydrological response of a degraded semi-arid floodplain in Kenya. Land Degradation \u0026amp; Development, 27(3), 550\u0026ndash;561.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eMuthee, S. W., Kuria, B. T., Mundia, C. N., Sichangi, A. W., Kuria, D. N., Goebel, M., \u0026amp; Rienow, A. (2023). Using SWAT to model the response of evapotranspiration and runoff to varying land uses and climatic conditions in the Muringato basin, Kenya. \u003cem\u003eModelling Earth Systems and Environment\u003c/em\u003e, 1531\u0026ndash;1543.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eMuthoka, J. M., Kiptum, C. K., \u0026amp; Obando, J. A. (2021). Hydrological response to land use/land cover changes in the Olkinyei watershed of the Mara River Basin, Kenya. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 12(7), 3155\u0026ndash;3175.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eMuthuwatta, L. P. (2004). \u003cem\u003eLong term rainfall-runoff-lake level modelling of the Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya.\u003c/em\u003e [Master's dissertation, International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation].\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eMwangi, H. M., Julich, S., Patil, S. D., Feger, K. H., \u0026amp; Schw\u0026auml;rzel, K. (2016). Modelling the impact of land use change on hydrological responses in the Mt. Kenya region. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(3), 1207\u0026ndash;1223.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eNeitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., \u0026amp; Williams, J. R. (2009). Overview of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. \u003cem\u003eTier B\u003c/em\u003e, 8, 3\u0026ndash;23.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eObando, J. A., Onywere, S., Shisanya, C., Ndubi, A., Masiga, D., Irura, Z.,. .. Maragia, H. (2016). Impact of short-term flooding on livelihoods in the Kenya Rift Valley Lakes. In M. E. Meadows, \u0026amp; J. -C. Lin, \u003cem\u003eGeomorphology and society, advances in geographical and environmental sciences\u003c/em\u003e (pp. 193\u0026ndash;215). Springer Japan.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOkuku, K. O., Onyando, J. O., Okwany, R. O., \u0026amp; Kiptum, C. K. (2024). Climate trends and their impact on sorghum production in Marigat, Baringo County: A historical analysis. \u003cem\u003eOpen Journal of Modern Hydrology\u003c/em\u003e, 14, 106\u0026ndash;129.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOnyango, D. O., Opiyo, F. E., \u0026amp; Mureithi, S. M. (2022). Land use and land cover changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in the Nzoia River Basin, Kenya. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 194(5), 1\u0026ndash;21.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOnywere, S. M., Shisanya, C. A., Obando, J. A., Ndubi, O. A., Masiga, D., Irura, Z.,. .. Maragia, H. O. (2013). 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Geothermal activity and hydrothermal mineral deposits at southern Lake Bogoria, Kenya rift valley: Impact of lake level changes. \u003cem\u003eJournal of African Earth Sciences\u003c/em\u003e, 129, 623\u0026ndash;646.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eRodell, M., Famiglietti, J. S., Wiese, D. N., Reager, J. T., Beaudoing, H. K., Landerer, F. W., \u0026amp; Lo, M. H. (2018). Emerging trends in global freshwater availability. \u003cem\u003eNature\u003c/em\u003e, 557(7707), 651\u0026ndash;659. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0123-1.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSalano, O., Makonde, H., Kasili, R., \u0026amp; Boga, H. (2018). Isolation and characterization of fungi from a hot-spring on the shores of Lake Bogoria, Kenya. \u003cem\u003eJournal of Yeast and Fungal Research\u003c/em\u003e, 9(1), 1\u0026ndash;13.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSchagerl, M. (2016). \u003cem\u003eSoda Lakes of East Africa.\u003c/em\u003e Springer International Publishing.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSharma, R., Raghubanshi, A. S., \u0026amp; Singh, J. S. (2020). The invasive Prosopis juliflora and its impacts on plant communities and soil properties in the drylands of India: a review. Tropical Ecology, 61(1), 1\u0026ndash;12.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eTirupathi, C., \u0026amp; Shashidhar, T. (2020). Investigating the impact of climate and land-use land cover changes on hydrological predictions over the Krishna river basin under present and future scenarios. \u003cem\u003eScience of The Total Environment\u003c/em\u003e, 721, 137736.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"aquatic-sciences","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"aqsc","sideBox":"Learn more about [Aquatic Sciences](http://link.springer.com/journal/27)","snPcode":"27","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/27/3","title":"Aquatic Sciences","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Rainfall Variability, Temperature Variability, Land Use Land Cover, Rivers' Discharge, Lake Bogoria Watershed, SWAT","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7675187/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7675187/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eClimate variability and land use land cover (LULC) changes are critical drivers of regional water balance, ultimately determining water quantity within river systems. This study sought to determine the impacts of rainfall variability, temperature variability, and LULC changes on the volume of water flowing through rivers draining into Lake Bogoria in Baringo County, Kenya, from 1981 to 2020. We established five Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for the time periods 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2020, inputting topographic, climate, LULC, and soil data. Primary data was also collected from the Endorois community and key informants from relevant ministries. Our analysis revealed that rainfall increased from 1290.3 mm in 1981 to 1853.6 mm in 2020. The mean temperature exhibited a slight warming trend, rising from 23.77\u0026deg;C in 1981 to 23.85\u0026deg;C in 2020. Land use land cover analysis depicted a net increase in surface area under water by 7.17 km\u0026sup2;, grasslands by 1.22 km\u0026sup2;, shrublands by 7.92 km\u0026sup2;, agricultural land (rain-fed and irrigated) by 8.06 km\u0026sup2;, \u003cem\u003eProsopis species\u003c/em\u003e by 0.74 km\u0026sup2;, peri-urban areas by 0.28 km\u0026sup2;, and bare areas by 0.62 km\u0026sup2; over the forty years. Conversely, tree cover decreased substantially by 25.83 km\u0026sup2;. The model performance was robust, achieving a coefficient of determination (R\u0026sup2;) of 0.78 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.75, indicating good and very good performance, respectively. The total simulated discharge volumes of the Waseges, Kipsirian, and Ngiriki rivers increased from 8,230,008 m\u0026sup3; in 1981 to 17,629,946 m\u0026sup3; in 2020. We conclude that the combined effects of increasing rainfall and extensive deforestation overshadowed the impact of rising temperatures and the expansion of agricultural land, resulting in a net increase in river discharge volumes at the watershed scale. However, this masks a critical shift towards a more volatile hydrological regime with potential for more severe dry-season water scarcity.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Hydro-Climatic Shifts and Catchment Transformation: Modelling Streamflow Responses in Lake Bogoria Basin, Kenya","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-11-28 09:16:18","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7675187/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"122508767481363666616622254297230647046","date":"2026-04-04T14:52:30+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"258634594276299628045294413997710259921","date":"2026-03-30T12:31:41+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"73227628967093156853891279603937209101","date":"2026-01-10T04:12:04+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"287826484080898013933511141955664509983","date":"2025-12-01T18:41:56+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-11-24T12:12:36+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-10-18T09:03:59+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-10-18T01:52:57+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Aquatic Sciences","date":"2025-09-22T10:02:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"aquatic-sciences","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"aqsc","sideBox":"Learn more about [Aquatic Sciences](http://link.springer.com/journal/27)","snPcode":"27","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/27/3","title":"Aquatic Sciences","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"cb45589e-b408-44a2-9e33-afc5c40f4cd0","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 28th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-28T09:16:18+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-11-28 09:16:18","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7675187","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7675187","identity":"rs-7675187","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}