A Study on the Effects of Digital Finance on Green and Low Carbon Cyclic Development Based on Machine Learning Models

With technological transformations such as big data, blockchain, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing, digital techniques are penetrating the field of finance. Digital finance is a resource-saving and environmentally friendly innovative financial service. It shows great green attributes and can drive the flow of financial resources towards environmentally friendly enterprises, thereby promoting green and low-carbon development. This paper investigates the effects of digital finance on green and low-carbon cyclic development and the mechanism. First, the level of green and low carbon cyclic development in China is estimated from multiple aspects based on the panel data of 31 provinces by using the spatio-temporal range entropy weight method. Then, the working mechanism of digital finance on green and low carbon cyclic development is revealed by performing empirical tests based on panel regression models, mediating effect models, and threshold models. Finally, the effects of digital finance and conventional variables on green and low-carbon cyclic development are investigated by using a random forest model and a CatBoost model in based on the machine learning. The results show that digital finance has significant positive effects on green and low-carbon cyclic development, and technological innovation plays a key role in the effects of digital finance on green and low-carbon cyclic development; meanwhile, the driving effect of digital finance on green and low carbon cyclic development shows nonlinear features with increasing “marginal effect”; besides, both digital finance and conventional factors have significant impacts on green and low carbon cyclic development. This study provides an empirical basis and path reference for digital finance to achieve “carbon peak, carbon neutralization” in China.