Pathways for adaptation of Venice and its lagoon to sea-level rise

Pathways for adaptation of Venice and its lagoon to sea-level rise | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Pathways for adaptation of Venice and its lagoon to sea-level rise Piero Lionello, Valeria Fant, Ulysse Pasquier, Luigi Tosi, Le Cozannet, and 10 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7420349/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The substantial risks posed to Venice and its lagoon by ongoing and projected sea-level rise require unprecedented long-term adaptation strategies. With present insufficient greenhouse gas mitigation policies, the current open lagoon strategy, with mobile barriers and multiple accommodation measures, is likely to encounter hard limits within the current century. Follow-up strategies could be based either on ring-dikes, isolating the city from the rest of the lagoon, or on a closed lagoon with permanent coastal dams separating it from the sea. Relocation of monuments to a suitable inland area and abandonment of Venice would be the only remaining strategy for sea-level above 10-15 m. Indicative adaptation costs increase with sea level rise from less than 1 to more than 30Ge. Abandonment might become unavoidable in the 22nd century under current climate policies and an Antarctic ice-sheet collapse, a risk that could still be avoided by a rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Biological sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Scientific community and society/Geography Social science/Geography Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences Venice sea level rise adaptation pathways long-term Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7420349","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":513960545,"identity":"bc1879fc-1b33-4532-9647-b5440407b69e","order_by":0,"name":"Piero Lionello","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"University of Salento","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Piero","middleName":"","lastName":"Lionello","suffix":""},{"id":513960546,"identity":"869a89c1-24fe-4034-aecd-fb4ac45ce9de","order_by":1,"name":"Valeria Fant","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Deltares,","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Valeria","middleName":"","lastName":"Fant","suffix":""},{"id":513960547,"identity":"f4807fb5-60ad-403c-9f83-1b30cd34335a","order_by":2,"name":"Ulysse Pasquier","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of East Anglia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ulysse","middleName":"","lastName":"Pasquier","suffix":""},{"id":513960548,"identity":"326d2f9f-2cab-4548-b2cb-b9fa0418fc55","order_by":3,"name":"Luigi Tosi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources- CNR-IGG","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Luigi","middleName":"","lastName":"Tosi","suffix":""},{"id":513960549,"identity":"4251c90d-6c55-4b94-869c-6b653e0b6f32","order_by":4,"name":"Le Cozannet","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"BRGM French Geological Survey","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Le","middleName":"","lastName":"Cozannet","suffix":""},{"id":513960550,"identity":"338f3a75-3048-4e05-8dd5-bfb8a9088ff3","order_by":5,"name":"Robert J. 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