The Rising Global Middle Class

The Rising Global Middle Class | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Rising Global Middle Class Carlos Gradín This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9289839/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In this paper, I analyze historical trends in the size and composition of the global middle class. To reduce arbitrariness in prior definitions, I propose a new definition of today’s middle class based on the two central income classes in the four-group simplified representation of the world distribution, thereby minimizing information loss (i.e., maximizing class inequality). So defined, the global middle class comprises approximately half of the world’s population and income, roughly encompassing a rising developing middle class (the global lower-middle class) and those aligning with Western European lower-middle-class living standards (the global upper-middle class). I investigate its historical trends using both absolute and relative approaches. I show that the significant expansion of people living with today’s middle-class standards, particularly over the last two decades, was driven by stronger economic growth in emerging economies such as China, only partially offset by changes in income distribution within countries. This expansion resulted in a dramatic shift in the composition of the middle class, which I also document. I compare these trends with alternative approaches to defining the middle class and assess their robustness. JEL classification: D31, D63, F63, I31, O15. Global income distribution global middle class income growth income inequality Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files TheRisingGlobalMiddleClassJEGAppendix.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 08 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 07 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 07 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 07 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 01 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9289839","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":620281533,"identity":"d552c214-2e52-40d5-9dbf-48aa6e0ae1ed","order_by":0,"name":"Carlos Gradín","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA1UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLACHgMGOQYGxgYwh49YLcZwLWzEaWFgSGyAcQhq4e9f+/DDm4I76RtuJDe/+MBQK09Qi8SN58aScwye5W64kdhmOYPhuGEbIS0GEscYpHkMDuduOHOwzZiH4RgjMVqYfwO1pBtAtdgT1sLfxgayJcHgeGPzYx6GmkSCWiRusLFZzjE4bDjzeGMb4wyDA8kEtfD3H2O+8ebPYXm+w+yPP3yoqLPtJ6SFQSIBzmSTYDA4TFAD0JoDcCbzBwaGOiK0jIJRMApGwUgDAC7iQWhkAfyDAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Universidade de Vigo","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Carlos","middleName":"","lastName":"Gradín","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-01 09:38:34","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9289839/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9289839/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106897102,"identity":"3b67fe41-8a51-4f23-a358-e5adba7d74cd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-14 14:27:53","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1042336,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"TheRisingGlobalMiddleClassJEG.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9289839/v1_covered_632ca8a9-ed28-4315-be1e-097d1fcc2260.pdf"},{"id":106897017,"identity":"ef453684-b36c-4aff-8db2-5ed88717950f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-14 14:27:26","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":361665,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"TheRisingGlobalMiddleClassJEGAppendix.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9289839/v1/f9f25385fdf87b9eeb59eba2.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The Rising Global Middle Class","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"journal-of-economic-growth","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"joeg","sideBox":"Learn more about [Journal of Economic Growth](http://link.springer.com/journal/10887)","snPcode":"10887","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10887/3","title":"Journal of Economic Growth","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Global income distribution, global middle class, income growth, income inequality","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9289839/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9289839/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn this paper, I analyze historical trends in the size and composition of the global middle class. 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