Causal discovery of hydroclimatic drivers influencing water quality in a large lake

Causal discovery of hydroclimatic drivers influencing water quality in a large lake | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Causal discovery of hydroclimatic drivers influencing water quality in a large lake Rohit Shukla, Leon Boegman, Pankaj Kumar This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4439142/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a threat to ecosystem services, with adverse economic and public health impacts. Large-scale climate processes will influence local environmental conditions, potentially favoring HAB formation through complex, nonlinear interactions. This study employs explainable (i.e., SHAP) machine learning to give insight on the predictions and causal analysis (i.e., PCMCI) to identify the relationships between climate indices, physical drivers, and the resultant Chlorophyll-a (CHL) concentrations in western Lake Erie. Our causal analysis revealed that runoff and water temperature directly affect CHL but also act to mediate the impacts of the Arctic Oscillation on influencing CHL. Moreover, our explainable analysis further confirmed this by identifying runoff as the main driving factor, followed by water temperature. The study highlights that water quality in the basin is subject to confounding effects resulting from interactions between global atmospheric circulation patterns and local hydro-meteorological factors, expanding HAB forecasting beyond synoptic scale meteorology. Harmful Algal Blooms Ensemble Learning Model Explainable AI Causality Climate Change Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4439142","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":303875911,"identity":"7807d030-28e3-45e2-acbf-0f30fbb27645","order_by":0,"name":"Rohit Shukla","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAz0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACNvYGZgaGChsStPDxHABqOZNGghY5iQRmBsa2w6Q4jOfsY8OfbedlNxxvPvbwZxuDPH8DIS3s7cbJPOduG284cyzdmLeNwXDGAYK2HGM+zFB2O3HDjRwzacY2hgQGglok0pgP/mA7l7jh/vtvkkCHJcgToyWBp+0A0BYeNgmgwxIMiHGYMc+ZZOOZZ9LMpHnOSRhuJKRFvr2NWfJHhZ1s3/HDzyR/lNnIyxHSAgOMDRBagkj1SFpGwSgYBaNgFGACAPszP69EkTw6AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Queen's University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rohit","middleName":"","lastName":"Shukla","suffix":""},{"id":303875912,"identity":"83eaa1b3-f934-48e8-beb8-5b61150a4bd3","order_by":1,"name":"Leon Boegman","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Queen's University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Leon","middleName":"","lastName":"Boegman","suffix":""},{"id":303875913,"identity":"8f92c9e1-545e-48b0-a218-6c65e478deb7","order_by":2,"name":"Pankaj Kumar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pankaj","middleName":"","lastName":"Kumar","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-05-18 02:56:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4439142/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4439142/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":56827055,"identity":"d0b64a0d-7c92-456b-aa0b-a9d1f5882e82","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-21 03:22:39","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":658293,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"RohitShuklaHydroclimaticManuscriptarXiv.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4439142/v1_covered_144bf39a-ff26-47eb-8055-024568edd96e.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eCausal discovery of hydroclimatic drivers influencing water quality in a large lake\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Queen's University","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":" Harmful Algal Blooms, Ensemble Learning Model, Explainable AI, Causality, Climate Change","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4439142/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4439142/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eHarmful algal blooms (HABs) are a threat to ecosystem services, with adverse economic and public health impacts. 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