Partially non-ergodic ground motion model for the Bucaramanga seismic nest in Northern South America (NoSAm Nest GMM)

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This study developed a partially non-ergodic ground motion model for Bucaramanga seismic nest earthquakes in Northern South America, confirming the need for such a model and comparing it with recorded spectral accelerations.

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This paper evaluates how well commonly used subduction intra-slab ground motion models predict spectral acceleration for the Bucaramanga seismic nest using an updated earthquake database compiled and processed by the Colombian Geological Survey. The authors find that a partially non-ergodic ground motion model is necessary for estimating the nest’s spectral acceleration in northern South America, and they develop the first region-specific nest model by regionalizing the NGA-Sub Abrahamson and Gülerce (2022) model. They also estimate variance components at the earthquake and station levels and compare model outputs with recorded spectral accelerations for typical events, the highest-magnitude event in the database, and the most recent event with moment magnitude over 5. The paper does not explicitly state methodological limitations in the provided text. This paper is centrally about endometriosis or adenomyosis — it does not discuss either condition; it was included in the corpus via a keyword match in the upstream search index.

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Abstract The Bucaramanga seismic nest has the highest concentration of seismic events with magnitudes over 4.8 worldwide. Despite the nest depth, these events play a crucial role in the seismic hazard assessment for several cities in northern South America (NoSAm), particularly those situated close to their epicenters. Moreover, these earthquakes are widely felt across the country, even hundreds of kilometers away from the nest. This paper assesses the performance of commonly used subduction intra-slab Ground Motion Models (GMMs) in predicting the updated nest database gathered and processed by the Colombian Geological Survey. This analysis confirms the necessity of a partially non-ergodic ground motion model for estimating the spectral acceleration produced by Bucaramanga nest earthquakes in northern South America. The GMM presented herein is the first model developed specifically for seismic nests in the region and is conceived as a regionalization of the recent NGA-Sub Abrahamson and Gülerce (2022) GMM. Additionally, we provide estimates of the variance components at both the earthquake and station levels and compare the developed GMM with the spectral accelerations recorded for typical earthquakes, for the highest magnitude earthquake in the database, and for the most recent Bucaramanga nest earthquake having a moment magnitude over 5.
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Partially non-ergodic ground motion model for the Bucaramanga seismic nest in Northern South America (NoSAm Nest GMM) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Partially non-ergodic ground motion model for the Bucaramanga seismic nest in Northern South America (NoSAm Nest GMM) César A. Pájaro, Arteta A. Carlos, Mercado Vicente, Montejo Julián, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3665353/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 20 Apr, 2024 Read the published version in Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Bucaramanga seismic nest has the highest concentration of seismic events with magnitudes over 4.8 worldwide. Despite the nest depth, these events play a crucial role in the seismic hazard assessment for several cities in northern South America (NoSAm), particularly those situated close to their epicenters. Moreover, these earthquakes are widely felt across the country, even hundreds of kilometers away from the nest. This paper assesses the performance of commonly used subduction intra-slab Ground Motion Models (GMMs) in predicting the updated nest database gathered and processed by the Colombian Geological Survey. This analysis confirms the necessity of a partially non-ergodic ground motion model for estimating the spectral acceleration produced by Bucaramanga nest earthquakes in northern South America. The GMM presented herein is the first model developed specifically for seismic nests in the region and is conceived as a regionalization of the recent NGA-Sub Abrahamson and Gülerce (2022) GMM. Additionally, we provide estimates of the variance components at both the earthquake and station levels and compare the developed GMM with the spectral accelerations recorded for typical earthquakes, for the highest magnitude earthquake in the database, and for the most recent Bucaramanga nest earthquake having a moment magnitude over 5. ground motion model - GMM seismic nest Northern South America Colombia period-based site characterization intermediate seismicity deep earthquakes. Full Text Supplementary Files ESUPBucaramangaNestGMM.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 20 Apr, 2024 Read the published version in Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering → Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Nov, 2023 Reviewers invited by journal 30 Nov, 2023 Editor invited by journal 30 Nov, 2023 Editor assigned by journal 25 Nov, 2023 First submitted to journal 24 Nov, 2023 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3665353","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":255143611,"identity":"ab0a7673-2a7b-4bca-bad6-eb5204a1a70a","order_by":0,"name":"César A. 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