Accelerated destabilization of transportation networks across the Northern Hemisphere by permafrost-infrastructure interactions

Accelerated destabilization of transportation networks across the Northern Hemisphere by permafrost-infrastructure interactions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Accelerated destabilization of transportation networks across the Northern Hemisphere by permafrost-infrastructure interactions Rui Chen, Jan Nitzbon, Haoying Li, Moritz Langer This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7836011/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Warming-induced permafrost thaw poses a threat to the structural integrity of transportation infrastructure across the northern permafrost region. In turn, the presence of roads and railways disrupts the thermal stability of permafrost ground. Incorporating these bidirectional interactions between permafrost and infrastructure is crucial for credible projections of future thaw risks. Here, we apply a process-based tiling model to quantify permafrost–infrastructure interactions across the Northern Hemisphere, and to project the future likelihood of thaw-induced infrastructure instability under two scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Under recent climatic conditions (2000--2023), existing transportation infrastructure induces additional ground warming with mean values of 1.16℃ (roads) and 0.61℃ (railways) compared to the ambient ground. By the end of the century (2081-2100), the likelihood of thaw-induced instability rises by 0.10-0.22 for roads and 0.13-0.23 for railways across both scenarios, jeopardizing 84.3-92.0% of roads (serving 92.8-97.8% of the population) and 94.1-99.6% of railways (serving 98.2-99.9%). Our findings underscore the urgent need for implementing effective adaptation and mitigation measures to maintain infrastructure serviceability and resilience in rapidly warming permafrost environments. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementary.pdf Supplementary Information for: Accelerated destabilization of transportation networks across the Northern Hemisphere by permafrost-infrastructure interactions Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7836011","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":528398838,"identity":"db7c4435-65b7-4815-b548-1683b14905b3","order_by":0,"name":"Rui Chen","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAr0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACxgYQYuAHMg8wsJGiRbKBeC0QXQwGB0AsYrSYz0huYPi5wybP+PgZwwMMZTaEtcjcSGxg7D2TVmx2Jgdo0bk0wlokJBIbmBnbDiduO5C74QCQQbSW/4mb+9+CtPwnWsuBxA0SYFsOEKGF52HDwd625MQZN95/OJBwLpkILezpDx/8bLNL7O9PS/7wocyOsBYQQDgmgTgNo2AUjIJRMAoIAQCF0j6h3AqtMwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5661-0930","institution":"Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rui","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":528398839,"identity":"fcd18280-eb93-4317-a67a-04b810d99e4d","order_by":1,"name":"Jan Nitzbon","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7205-6298","institution":"Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jan","middleName":"","lastName":"Nitzbon","suffix":""},{"id":528398840,"identity":"e0a862ce-ea8f-478b-bccf-8736aef59606","order_by":2,"name":"Haoying Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Humboldt University of Berlin","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Haoying","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":528398841,"identity":"6490e566-6cba-4c3b-a67b-e91e490ca4a0","order_by":3,"name":"Moritz Langer","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Moritz","middleName":"","lastName":"Langer","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-10-11 14:41:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7836011/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7836011/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":94028366,"identity":"eb4fac6a-7a4c-431a-a1f7-60799c66c48e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-21 14:05:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":48872351,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7836011/v1_covered_ae00ed34-8189-4da8-b35f-1d63f4cf3e77.pdf"},{"id":93463343,"identity":"8d0bfb05-7847-41ae-b94f-c630373eeafb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-14 06:49:43","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":15478996,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information for: Accelerated destabilization of transportation networks across the Northern Hemisphere by permafrost-infrastructure interactions","description":"","filename":"Supplementary.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7836011/v1/128af92092b560b64e9d3968.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Accelerated destabilization of transportation networks across the Northern Hemisphere by permafrost-infrastructure interactions","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7836011/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7836011/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Warming-induced permafrost thaw poses a threat to the structural integrity of transportation infrastructure across the northern permafrost region. In turn, the presence of roads and railways disrupts the thermal stability of permafrost ground. Incorporating these bidirectional interactions between permafrost and infrastructure is crucial for credible projections of future thaw risks. Here, we apply a process-based tiling model to quantify permafrost–infrastructure interactions across the Northern Hemisphere, and to project the future likelihood of thaw-induced infrastructure instability under two scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Under recent climatic conditions (2000--2023), existing transportation infrastructure induces additional ground warming with mean values of 1.16℃ (roads) and 0.61℃ (railways) compared to the ambient ground. 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