Lobe-Switching Avulsions: Delta Geometry Could Determine Locations

Lobe-Switching Avulsions: Delta Geometry Could Determine Locations | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Lobe-Switching Avulsions: Delta Geometry Could Determine Locations Ningjie Hu, A Murray, Katherine Ratliff, Bo Wang, Laurence Smith This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7668645/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Avulsions on deltas often occur at distances from the river mouth that scale with the backwater length (channel depth divided by river slope). This backwater scaling could arise from hydrodynamic variability between flood and inter-flood periods that promotes net in-channel sediment deposition, or from geometric differences between river and floodplain profiles. In this ‘geometric mechanism’, a high-curvature zone in floodplain profiles leads to local elevation of the river above the floodplains. Here we explore whether the model-motivated geometric mechanism is relevant on natural deltas. A new framework to analyze profile curvatures from digital elevation datasets, applied to the Mississippi Delta, reveals curvature patterns that support the geometric mechanism. An analysis of the timescales for creating and burying high-curvature zones suggests that the geometric mechanism is relevant on deltas built by large, low-slope rivers for which floodplain aggradation is weakly coupled to channel-belt aggradation, producing relatively narrow alluvial ridges. Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Geomorphology Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterialsnew.docx Supplementary Materials for Lobe-Switching Avulsions: Delta Geometry Could Determine Locations Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7668645","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":519520755,"identity":"f753ce3d-279d-4b60-83db-ca17f3e114f0","order_by":0,"name":"Ningjie Hu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2klEQVRIie2QMQrCUAyGA4V2iXaNFHqGQMG2WPQqQqGTgndwcPEADh5CEJwLBV0euBZcdCkOHRRXQV/Brs83Cr4PAkn4PwIBMBh+EUsWMQCDlRPkzWqsrdhjTaWFAVlPCZ1OcY1mCYQ0uZ9QJOA6E1Yq8bybRcQZxKvpdoBlBr1lrVa4wD4TF8DldOfhrWm+XPkoryZZSeUFIw0lOBPnjWJ7WMqGNK7IJ6fIogritUiRRDVTK0cRPOg59PmQXsp6P/TdRbpRKhLbIwBsJ1RFW6z7TSdmMBgM/8sbp/BCcohXqnQAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3322-249X","institution":"Duke University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ningjie","middleName":"","lastName":"Hu","suffix":""},{"id":519520756,"identity":"e2b2e205-7b07-4563-ba98-98b1d37dc368","order_by":1,"name":"A Murray","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2484-9151","institution":"Duke University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"A","middleName":"","lastName":"Murray","suffix":""},{"id":519520757,"identity":"b8a33897-0b02-4af0-8ece-6e3a73b0e8b8","order_by":2,"name":"Katherine Ratliff","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Duke University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Katherine","middleName":"","lastName":"Ratliff","suffix":""},{"id":519520758,"identity":"d6562fed-57af-4ea6-ba16-ec915f1cac86","order_by":3,"name":"Bo Wang","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9786-2747","institution":"Saint Louis University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bo","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":519520759,"identity":"77485101-50df-4f4b-b019-750765bd3239","order_by":4,"name":"Laurence Smith","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6866-5904","institution":"Brown","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Laurence","middleName":"","lastName":"Smith","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-09-22 00:25:11","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7668645/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7668645/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":92137843,"identity":"526f802b-9767-40e5-9808-7ceb80eb2826","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:49","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1872796,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"AvulsionNatureComm25.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/4bd5fdb50f19bb240319dbda.docx"},{"id":92137840,"identity":"602fd190-f9e7-4cac-b753-edf541ba87b0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:49","extension":"json","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":5906,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"NCOMMS2574927.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/828917e0b43824d0fc263880.json"},{"id":92139140,"identity":"fabf239a-406c-45cb-b07f-cfe6b77e9fb7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:12:50","extension":"docx","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1985512,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryMaterialsnew.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/5e92b5cb193a490f6960a65b.docx"},{"id":92137841,"identity":"8f6a74a6-29c7-4c30-875b-14d9da0ce777","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:49","extension":"xml","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":80764,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"NCOMMS25749270enriched.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/ef11a184896b46be105b41b6.xml"},{"id":92139139,"identity":"2ebccff0-b869-45df-8666-a3edfdd203e1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:12:49","extension":"jpeg","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":277705,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/df2bacca79e1edf8b7af334b.jpeg"},{"id":92137846,"identity":"d7a779e5-8380-418e-b968-ec373e4ceb3f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:50","extension":"jpeg","order_by":5,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":371313,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/2770cab040ad3fd9546e97bf.jpeg"},{"id":92137848,"identity":"8806a900-81a9-465b-bfd4-1084d2fd0052","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:50","extension":"jpeg","order_by":6,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":303974,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage3.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/6f09786fe5e4fc274a683ab6.jpeg"},{"id":92137849,"identity":"cc0a7a72-fe39-4051-a91d-2f481ce71ff4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:50","extension":"jpeg","order_by":7,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":215738,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage4.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/7beee90d8217d05d5e520191.jpeg"},{"id":92137845,"identity":"ba6f3537-4aa9-422a-ad68-9bdfce2a98b9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:50","extension":"jpeg","order_by":8,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":120506,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage5.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/f71624af14f1854eb9f3b788.jpeg"},{"id":92137851,"identity":"cb78a921-bc3d-4e67-9db5-ec24b4ca66ed","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:50","extension":"png","order_by":9,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":71926,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/a84e812d3351f4ca780e3695.png"},{"id":92139141,"identity":"78950359-8896-4236-8454-013f60772ab5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:12:50","extension":"png","order_by":10,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":180317,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/8e0b86b118a62a4f6252badd.png"},{"id":92137857,"identity":"db25f485-de80-4fcc-8e9f-b777c82dd5d3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:50","extension":"png","order_by":11,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":81016,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/ab01d1fe595b499a6e347067.png"},{"id":92137853,"identity":"a7dcc07c-8c7d-4a86-92a4-4277c597c687","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:50","extension":"png","order_by":12,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":68227,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/e23824f38c6bfd4d5ed3af3d.png"},{"id":92137852,"identity":"daeb16e5-2877-436b-a184-6cffddd9d3f1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:50","extension":"png","order_by":13,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":39795,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/5646a26222745dec879c831d.png"},{"id":92137854,"identity":"165d4642-6a47-45af-a6ce-1ca0b3ae1ca9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:50","extension":"xml","order_by":14,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":78472,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"NCOMMS25749270structuring.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/fa10a80bd8e6569ef84ea196.xml"},{"id":92137856,"identity":"91cb6557-067e-41ef-91c9-52872da68a18","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:50","extension":"html","order_by":15,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":88442,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"earlyproof.html","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/7c1a7a2ebdbaa59c4fa70d93.html"},{"id":92188893,"identity":"a18f10c3-60b2-4b17-9b5b-824f4bd227b4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 14:55:06","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":985639,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"AvulsionNatureComm25.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1_covered_556cddd4-aaa9-44d1-a806-a1be1bb95497.pdf"},{"id":92137844,"identity":"bc145e07-ea22-4b1c-b9c3-34c3ac01451e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-25 05:04:49","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1985512,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Materials for Lobe-Switching Avulsions: Delta Geometry Could Determine Locations","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryMaterialsnew.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7668645/v1/7da23b22f06c41b23ea2a0dc.docx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Lobe-Switching Avulsions: Delta Geometry Could Determine Locations","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7668645/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7668645/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAvulsions on deltas often occur at distances from the river mouth that scale with the backwater length (channel depth divided by river slope). This backwater scaling could arise from hydrodynamic variability between flood and inter-flood periods that promotes net in-channel sediment deposition, or from geometric differences between river and floodplain profiles. In this \u0026lsquo;geometric mechanism\u0026rsquo;, a high-curvature zone in floodplain profiles leads to local elevation of the river above the floodplains. Here we explore whether the model-motivated geometric mechanism is relevant on natural deltas. A new framework to analyze profile curvatures from digital elevation datasets, applied to the Mississippi Delta, reveals curvature patterns that support the geometric mechanism. An analysis of the timescales for creating and burying high-curvature zones suggests that the geometric mechanism is relevant on deltas built by large, low-slope rivers for which floodplain aggradation is weakly coupled to channel-belt aggradation, producing relatively narrow alluvial ridges.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Lobe-Switching Avulsions: Delta Geometry Could Determine Locations","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-25 05:04:45","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7668645/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-communications","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"NCOMMS","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/","title":"Nature Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Communications","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"746bbe5b-3ec6-4655-a58e-82f97456d260","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 25th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":55214550,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Geomorphology"},{"id":55214551,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-05T08:00:23+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-25 05:04:45","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7668645","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7668645","identity":"rs-7668645","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}