Exposure of global agricultural lands to extreme weather using CMIP6 projections of future climate

Exposure of global agricultural lands to extreme weather using CMIP6 projections of future climate | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Exposure of global agricultural lands to extreme weather using CMIP6 projections of future climate Kushank Bajaj, Zia Mehrabi, Navin Ramankutty This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7556217/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract As climate change intensifies, extreme weather is becoming a major threat to global food security. Yet we still lack a good understanding of how these extremes will be distributed across the world’s agricultural lands—particularly across small versus large crop and pasturelands. In this study, we assess the exposure of global agricultural lands to extreme weather in a warming world, focusing on small and large crop and pasturelands. In a world that is 2°C warmer than today, 25% (11 million hectares, Mha) of present-day agricultural lands will face over two months of extreme heat, up from 16% today (7 Mha), and another ~2% (5 Mha) will be exposed to a combination of two or more extremes, up from 10% (4 Mha). The total area exposed to prolonged dry conditions and extreme precipitation will remain unchanged (less than 1% or 5 Mha, with increases in some regions balanced by decreases elsewhere), while ~2% less area (2 Mha), down from 7% (3 Mha), will experience a month of frost. Future exposure to extreme weather varies by land use type. Pasture lands will experience prolonged exposure to heat stress, whereas croplands will be exposed to higher excessive rains and heat stress combined. Spatial correlations between farm size and geography indicate potential differences in exposure. Exposure to extreme precipitation and heat stress is highest in small (1-2 ha) and medium (2-4 ha) crop and pastureland, respectively. These findings offer a preliminary global assessment of how exposure to extreme weather varies by farm size and land use, underscoring the need for tailored adaptation strategies to safeguard food security in a warming world. Climate Analysis and Modeling Agricultural Economics and Policy climate change farm size CMIP6 extreme weather exposure compounding extremes cropland pastureland Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7556217","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":511406050,"identity":"2d498a5a-cc64-4061-bc4d-409500cf28aa","order_by":0,"name":"Kushank Bajaj","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/0lEQVRIie2PsUoDQRCGZxnINTG2a+UrXNjicqjcq+yxEJuNzxAInM3FOla+QqqA3cqCVSTtwTaxT7HpDknhXoh27mInuF8xzAzzwT8AkcgfJAXgQNWxQbBu00t+o5BFp2BYcZwU7HdDSMkS9W5Ha11kyZtm1x+rywECsXv5s5LXXFDa6PK5vhNi8mCGFQJePK48wRTnlFrNUyWZntSGOKWHZz5lsxWtU4p0s2M6r00RVho+7oKRZSOZgNaUQSVfbMcjur4tl82ODedTIyokM+8v2bkUhr5euWCS0fZgbp7uZy9271EA+hzpV0+qY5367h2JIvZ7OASOI5FI5F/yCVB5Vsn/Fxj0AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1002-4669","institution":"University of British Columbia","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kushank","middleName":"","lastName":"Bajaj","suffix":""},{"id":511406051,"identity":"0250117d-1e9e-42e6-a52a-436232a1a7a9","order_by":1,"name":"Zia Mehrabi","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9574-0420","institution":"University of Colorado at Boulder","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zia","middleName":"","lastName":"Mehrabi","suffix":""},{"id":511406052,"identity":"bba8c0ca-61d8-4aa6-a521-4ec1e66cb443","order_by":2,"name":"Navin Ramankutty","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3737-5717","institution":"University of Colorado at Boulder","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Navin","middleName":"","lastName":"Ramankutty","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-09-07 12:35:54","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7556217/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7556217/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":90916618,"identity":"2c15c43b-cab9-4171-889e-2f088bac5382","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-09 14:22:07","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1358771,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"msERLfarmsizeexposurefinal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7556217/v1_covered_63b1e67a-598a-4460-93b4-49b97733a802.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eExposure of global agricultural lands to extreme weather using CMIP6 projections of future climate\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"University of British Columbia","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"climate change, farm size, CMIP6, extreme weather exposure, compounding extremes, cropland, pastureland","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7556217/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7556217/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAs climate change intensifies, extreme weather is becoming a major threat to global food security. Yet we still lack a good understanding of how these extremes will be distributed across the world’s agricultural lands—particularly across small versus large crop and pasturelands. In this study, we assess the exposure of global agricultural lands to extreme weather in a warming world, focusing on small and large crop and pasturelands. In a world that is 2°C warmer than today, 25% (11 million hectares, Mha) of present-day agricultural lands will face over two months of extreme heat, up from 16% today (7 Mha), and another ~2% (5 Mha) will be exposed to a combination of two or more extremes, up from 10% (4 Mha). The total area exposed to prolonged dry conditions and extreme precipitation will remain unchanged (less than 1% or 5 Mha, with increases in some regions balanced by decreases elsewhere), while ~2% less area (2 Mha), down from 7% (3 Mha), will experience a month of frost. \u0026nbsp;Future exposure to extreme weather varies by land use type. 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