Modeling Monkeypox Epidemics: Thresholds, Temporal Dynamics, and Waning Immunity from Smallpox Vaccination

Modeling Monkeypox Epidemics: Thresholds, Temporal Dynamics, and Waning Immunity from Smallpox Vaccination | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Modeling Monkeypox Epidemics: Thresholds, Temporal Dynamics, and Waning Immunity from Smallpox Vaccination Samaila Jackson Yaga This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5920369/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates the dynamics of Monkeypox virus (MPXV) through a novel theoretical framework that extends classical epidemic threshold theory. The dual threshold theory is introduced, highlighting the interplay between the time-dependent basic reproduction number and the susceptible population density. Epidemic initiation is shown to occur when the time dependent reproductive number is greater than the threshold value of one and the susceptible population density at any time is greater than the critical threshold density of susceptibles. The model incorporates waning immunity from prior smallpox vaccination and immunity loss from previous MPXV infections, revealing complex epidemic behaviors such as oscillatory waves, prolonged outbreaks, and extended inter-epidemic periods under high transmission scenarios. Sensitivity analyses identify key drivers of epidemic initiation and progression, emphasizing the critical influence of waning immunity and zoonotic reservoirs. Public health implications underline the importance of targeted vaccination campaigns, rodent control, and continuous surveillance to reduce epidemic risks and prevent resurgence. This study provides actionable insights for managing MPXV outbreaks, while the dual threshold framework offers a robust theoretical foundation for understanding the dynamics of waning of vaccine cross immunity and zoonotic diseases. Mathematical and Theoretical Biology Dual threshold theory Monkeypox virus Epidemics Time-dependent reproductive number Smallpox Vaccine Waning Immunity Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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