Determination, Evaluation, and Comparison of Empirical Models for Predicting Radiation Frost Including the Long-Wave Radiation model (Case Study: Isfahan City)

Determination, Evaluation, and Comparison of Empirical Models for Predicting Radiation Frost Including the Long-Wave Radiation model (Case Study: Isfahan City) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Determination, Evaluation, and Comparison of Empirical Models for Predicting Radiation Frost Including the Long-Wave Radiation model (Case Study: Isfahan City) Mostafa Amir Hajiloo, Mehrdad Jafarpour, Sayed Masoud, Saleh Abdullahi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6434782/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Frost and chilling threaten agricultural production in various parts of the world which annually leads to significant economic losses to agricultural products. Even if all aspects of crop production are well managed, the occurrence of frost cooling can result in the complete loss of the entire agricultural production. According to the Agricultural Organization report of Isfahan Province, the extent of frost damage in this province during the years 2007 to 2017 was over 262 thousand hectares of land and 96 million tons of crops. Considering the annual frost damage, accurate predictions of frost radiation can provide the enough time for orchardists to prepare and utilize methods for combating frost and chilling protection. The aim of this research was to predict the minimum temperature using an empirical model based on long-wave radiation at nighttime events of frost radiation cooling in order to determine the start time of active protection methods. Meteorological data from the synoptic weather station in Isfahan over a 10-year statistical period were extracted and used for calculations and model determinations. In this regard, the Young model, correction factor, and multiple regression model were identified, examined, and compared. The accuracy of these models was evaluated using the goodness-of-fit tests. The results indicated that the FAO model and the multiple regression model developed in this study provide better predictions compared to other models. Furthermore, by using the wet bulb temperature at 18 Greenwich Mean Time at nights with characteristics of frost radiation cooling with the multiple-variable regression model, the minimum temperature for the next day can be predicted. Chilling Frost radiation Minimum temperature Long-wave radiation Isfahan Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6434782","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":451214433,"identity":"408b619c-7277-4463-a040-50381651643f","order_by":0,"name":"Mostafa Amir Hajiloo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Islamic Azad University of Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mostafa","middleName":"Amir","lastName":"Hajiloo","suffix":""},{"id":451214434,"identity":"d1992aa9-cd78-4eb5-90ee-6937853511d1","order_by":1,"name":"Mehrdad Jafarpour","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0UlEQVRIie2RMQrCMBSGUwqdKl1TKHqFQAcXoVdJ9yIFwalgRehkD+AtcoRXIpmqZwi4OthNQcFXV4dkcHDINz74+H/+R4jD8YdERAJwVm2CaAeAh9CoxFuVgy4Vj6jidgqTfdrpm8/jumCWzVTPsFiwZNAP8GhIMq8NhrdXJSrJislWdG1DwgQMik+lGFM8AScBE1SoqVcw02MxH5VCdy8bJSTHj5If6oJIqxRKcFvOVIojM5mcqVnJQMrh/qym+MrLcF0vMqPynepwOByOH/AG7vpKs11hJkoAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Islamic Azad University of Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mehrdad","middleName":"","lastName":"Jafarpour","suffix":""},{"id":451214435,"identity":"5523d113-f1b4-4d6d-9708-564e5825a5bc","order_by":2,"name":"Sayed Masoud","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Islamic Azad University of Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sayed","middleName":"","lastName":"Masoud","suffix":""},{"id":451214436,"identity":"4d65a994-f803-4dae-a17b-cb8eec2e84f7","order_by":3,"name":"Saleh Abdullahi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Islamic Azad University of Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Saleh","middleName":"","lastName":"Abdullahi","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-12 13:23:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6434782/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6434782/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91421421,"identity":"b7f8a65d-07d2-4d6c-ab03-0bc509802915","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-16 10:17:13","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":727730,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6434782/v1_covered_0cdb0171-9e1c-4c11-8311-6f67b9cabc96.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Determination, Evaluation, and Comparison of Empirical Models for Predicting Radiation Frost Including the Long-Wave Radiation model (Case Study: Isfahan City)","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Chilling, Frost radiation, Minimum temperature, Long-wave radiation, Isfahan","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6434782/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6434782/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eFrost and chilling threaten agricultural production in various parts of the world which annually leads to significant economic losses to agricultural products. Even if all aspects of crop production are well managed, the occurrence of frost cooling can result in the complete loss of the entire agricultural production. According to the Agricultural Organization report of Isfahan Province, the extent of frost damage in this province during the years 2007 to 2017 was over 262 thousand hectares of land and 96\u0026nbsp;million tons of crops. Considering the annual frost damage, accurate predictions of frost radiation can provide the enough time for orchardists to prepare and utilize methods for combating frost and chilling protection. The aim of this research was to predict the minimum temperature using an empirical model based on long-wave radiation at nighttime events of frost radiation cooling in order to determine the start time of active protection methods. Meteorological data from the synoptic weather station in Isfahan over a 10-year statistical period were extracted and used for calculations and model determinations. In this regard, the Young model, correction factor, and multiple regression model were identified, examined, and compared. The accuracy of these models was evaluated using the goodness-of-fit tests. The results indicated that the FAO model and the multiple regression model developed in this study provide better predictions compared to other models. Furthermore, by using the wet bulb temperature at 18 Greenwich Mean Time at nights with characteristics of frost radiation cooling with the multiple-variable regression model, the minimum temperature for the next day can be predicted.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Determination, Evaluation, and Comparison of Empirical Models for Predicting Radiation Frost Including the Long-Wave Radiation model (Case Study: Isfahan City)","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-05-07 02:49:16","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6434782/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"bd9e206b-f68d-47b4-8745-958b8cc9469a","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 7th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-09-16T10:09:04+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-05-07 02:49:16","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6434782","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6434782","identity":"rs-6434782","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}