Harnessing Satellite Constellations as Signals of Opportunity for an Enhanced Specification of the Satellite Drag Environment in the Critical LEO Regime

Harnessing Satellite Constellations as Signals of Opportunity for an Enhanced Specification of the Satellite Drag Environment in the Critical LEO Regime | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 6 November 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Harnessing Satellite Constellations as Signals of Opportunity for an Enhanced Specification of the Satellite Drag Environment in the Critical LEO Regime Authors : David James Fitzpatrick 0009-0004-2792-2977 [email protected] , Eric K. Sutton , Marcin D. Pilinski , and Scott E. Palo Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176244733.31846582/v1 Published Space Weather Version of record Peer review timeline 311 views 117 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Enhancing the accuracy of orbit predictions for low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites and debris is vitally important for satellite owner/operators dedicated to ensuring the safety and sustainability of the LEO environment. Presently, the largest source of error in orbit predictions stems from uncertainties in the estimation of thermospheric mass density, driven primarily by a lack of measurements used to accurately refine thermospheric models. This work addresses the pressing need for thermospheric observations by harnessing the SpaceX Starlink constellation as a signal of opportunity for atmospheric specification. Leveraging continuous ephemeris, attitude, and housekeeping data from over 1,500 Starlink satellites–provided through a partnership between SpaceX and NOAA's NESDIS and SWPC offices–orbit-effective density measurements are obtained by monitoring the dissipation of orbital energy with GNSS tracking and augmenting data from the Starlink onboard navigation filter with a high-fidelity, physics-based characterization of the nonconservative forces and aerodynamic force coefficients. The analysis emphasizes the sensitivity of the derived densities to the applied gas-surface interaction model (GSIM), with different parameterizations yielding distinct density estimates and highlighting limitations at high incidence angles. The study also shows that the choice of thermospheric model used for validation influences the interpretation of the derived densities, as well as the perceived accuracy of the GSIM. This research showcases the potential of satellite constellations to provide thermospheric observations with unprecedented spatial coverage and contribute to an accurate specification of the satellite drag and thermospheric environments. Supplementary Material File (fitzpatricketal2025_spaceweather_starlink-densities_v5b_251015.pdf) Download 3.31 MB File (starlink_attitude_profiles_animation_250605.mp4) Download 23.15 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 06 November 2025 Peer review timeline Published Space Weather Version of Record 19 Mar 2026 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords gas-surface interactions gnss-enabled satellites hasdm spacex starlink thermospheric density Authors Affiliations David James Fitzpatrick 0009-0004-2792-2977 [email protected] Ann and H.J. Smead Department of Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder View all articles by this author Eric K. Sutton Space Weather Technology, Research, and Education Center (SWx TREC), University of Colorado View all articles by this author Marcin D. Pilinski Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado Boulder View all articles by this author Scott E. Palo Ann and H.J. Smead Department of Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder View all articles by this author Funding Information National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service NA21OAR4310383, NA23OAR4310383B-T1-01 David Fitzpatrick Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 311 views 117 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation David James Fitzpatrick, Eric K. Sutton, Marcin D. Pilinski, et al. Harnessing Satellite Constellations as Signals of Opportunity for an Enhanced Specification of the Satellite Drag Environment in the Critical LEO Regime. Authorea . 06 November 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176244733.31846582/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. 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