Discussion
238
This translational research utilized the well-established BALB/c TB RMM within a 239
modelling-based framework to evaluate and compare bactericidal and sterilizing efficacy 240
of 25 novel 4 -drug combinations of 8 PAN-TB candidate drugs, administered at dose s 241
targeting clinically-relevant exposures. The absolute and relative time -dependent 242
bactericidal activities of the RHZE/RH and BPaMZ regimens , as observed here, were 243
consistent with previous data published by Evotec and others [18, 19, 20]. Time-dependent 244
sterilizing activity, evaluated by modelling BALB/c RMM data, has been estimated using 245
varying methodologies by several groups. Despite these differing approaches, the derived 246
population T90s for RHZE/RH and BPaMZ in the present study are consistent with 247
published values [21, 22, 23]. We identified 15 novel PAN-TB 4-drug combinations - i.e. 248
with relevance to the WHO pan -TB Target Regimen Profile - with shorter time to cure 249
(population derived T90) in this model than the current standard of care for DS-TB, 250
RHZE/RH. 251
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The best -performing combinations , BPa830Sut, BPa286Sut, and BQSut286 , achieved 252
T90s of less than 3 months in this BALB/c TB model and for BPa830Sut and BPa286Sut, 253
T90 values were similar to BPaL. This means that if developable and safe, these 2 regimens 254
could represent alternatives to BPaL with a pan-TB potential. 255
None of the PAN -TB combinations cured mice as rapidly as the benchmark regimen 256
BPaMZ, which demonstrated potential to cure patients in less time than RHZE/RH in 257
clinical trials. However, it is promising that several novel 4 -drug combinations with pan-258
TB potential cured BALB/c mice faster than RHZE/RH and at least as rapidly as BPaL. 259
Further, both BPa286Sut and BQSut286 demonstrated rapid bactericidal activity, similar 260
to that of BPaMZ. Rapidly bactericidal regimens may be beneficial by quickly reducing 261
symptoms and infectiousness of TB patients, positively influencing patient and population 262
level outcomes. The observation that BPa286Sut and BQSut286 did not match the cure rate 263
of BPaMZ even after demonstrating similar bactericidal activity is interesting and deserves 264
further attention. First, it underscores what has always been known in TB therapy that rapid 265
elimination of replicating organisms does not necessarily lead to rapid sterilization and 266
lasting cure, even for regimens that contain highly efficacious and long half-life agents like 267
B. Second, it points to a certain sterilizing activity for M and Z, the two agents in BPaMZ, 268
and demands a concerted effort in the field to find agents with similar sterilizing potential. 269
All 10 PAN-TB combinations that demonstrated T90s of less than 4 months contained B - 270
including the 5 with the most rapid bactericidal activity . In contrast , most B-free 271
combinations didn’t clear lung bacteria after 8 weeks’ treatment or cure mice after 12 272
weeks of treatment. Both these findings highlight the potentially significant contribution 273
of B and possibly other diarylquinolines to pan-TB treatments. This is in line with previous 274
work demonstrating the importance of this ATP-synthase inhibitor class in the TB 275
treatment backbone [13, 19, 24 ]. The introduction of B has significantly improv ed 276
treatment outcomes and survival among patients with MDR/XDR-TB. However, since its 277
implementation in 2012, reports of B resistance have emerged [26]. The identification of 278
potent B-free regimens is therefore of interest . The novel B -free 4 -drug combination 279
DelQSut286 demonstrated a slightly shorter T90 than RHZE/RH (by 0.4 months) in this 280
study, offering a qualified hope for B-free regimen for the future. 281
These results also confirmed the contribution of protein synthesis inhibitors to the 282
performance of novel regimens, with the oxazolidinone Sut present in all 3 combinations 283
with T90s of less than 3 months. Indeed, interest in Sut as a potential novel TB drug led to 284
its evaluation as part of regimens in the Phase2b SUDOCU trial [ 39] and the PAN -TB 285
Gates MRI-TBD06-21-trial (Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2025: 29 (11 Suppl 1): S1 – S963). 286
Further, the novel drug candidate 286, which inhibits cholesterol metabolism [3] - a new 287
mode of action for potential TB drugs - is included in 2 of the top 3. The sterilizing activity 288
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observed here for BPa286Sut is similar to published data for BPa286L, where full 289
sterilization of mice was achieved within 3 months [12]. L, like Sut, is an oxazolidinone 290
drug and has demonstrated treatment-shortening activity in mice [16, 17] . Notably, in the 291
study of Nuermberger et al [12], undetectable levels of mouse lung CFU were reached after 292
2 months of treatment with BPa286L as opposed to 4 weeks for BPa286Sut in our study. 293
This difference in bactericidal kinetics may be related to a more potent bactericidal activity 294
of Sut, compared to L, as shown in the study of Tasneen et al [24]. In addition to Sut, the 295
oxaborole leucyl tRNA synthetase inhibitor 830 was present in one of the top 3 regimens, 296
demonstrating the potential utility of this novel mechanism of action which also inhibits 297
protein synthesis, for the treatment of TB. 298
This is the first time preclinical studies have compared head-to-head bactericidal and 299
sterilizing activity for drug combinations including the two nitroimidazole drugs Pa and 300
Del, at doses confirmed to be relevant to their respective clinical exposures. In these 301
studies, Pa was dose d at 40 mg/kg and Del at 2 mg/kg, lower doses than used in some 302
previously published BALB/c RMM studies [13, 14, 27]. Overall, and especially when 303
considering T90s, the Pa-containing combinations tested here performed better than those 304
containing Del. However, exposures of B and Q are about 2-times higher in Pa containing 305
regimens than those of in the D el-containing regimens. Since B is a known potent 306
sterilizing drug, this difference between Pa - and Del-containing regimens may be partly 307
explained by the different drug -drug interactions in this mouse model. Whether similar 308
drug-drug interactions occur in humans will need to be carefully evaluated. In previous 309
work conducted to compare their bactericidal activity as monotherapies in two mouse 310
models, Del at 2.5 mg/kg demonstrated similar efficacy to Pa at 20 mg/kg and 30 mg/kg 311
[22]. Our results are consistent with this outcome, taking into account the higher dose and 312
presumably exposure of Pa used in our studies . Interestingly, the difference observed in 313
sterilizing activity between Pa-containing and Del-containing matched combinations was 314
sometimes but not always observed when comparing their relative bactericidal activity. For 315
example, whereas BPa286Sut and BDel286Sut reduced lung CFU to undetectable levels at 316
the end of 4 and 8 weeks ’ treatment respectively, with corresponding T90s of 2.5 vs 3.2 317
months, this correlation between bactericidal and sterilizing activities was not observed for 318
BPa830Sut and BDel830Sut. Both regimens reduced bacterial levels to undetectable levels 319
with 8 weeks’ treatment, whereas there is a 3-month difference in T90 between the two 320
combinations (T90s of 2.1 and 5.1 months respectively) . Further work is needed to 321
understand the drivers of sterilizing versus bactericidal activity for these combinations and 322
to identify the PK and/or PD factors driving the differentiation in behavior between these 323
two sets of nitroimidazole-containing combinations. Some possible contributors are greater 324
post-antibiotic effect ( PAE) for Pa than for Del [28], differentiated PD interactions with 325
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companion drugs for Pa versus Del, and differing impacts on exposures of highly 326
efficacious companion drugs for the two nitroimidazoles. 327
328
Our pop-PK analysis indicated that differences in T90s were associated with significantly 329
lower AUC0-24 values for B or Q, or both, in Del-containing combinations compared to the 330
Pa-containing equivalents while exposure was in the 2x range of clinical target for almost 331
all the comparisons . B exposure in BDelQ830 is the lowest compared to all other B-332
containing combinations and significantly lower (more than 2-fold) compared to BPaQ656. 333
(Table 6, Figure S4, Table S3). In other hand, this analysis indicated that differences in 334
differences in time to cure were associated with a significant lower AUC0-24 values for Q 335
in all B-free combinations compared to the B- containing combinations (Table 6, Table 336
S3). More generally, numerical results, included in Table S3, suggest variable relationships 337
between drug exposure variations and T90 changes. Although some statistically significant 338
AUCratio were observed, most of them are not clinically relevant as they are within the 2-339
fold range of clinical target , it is difficult to identify associations between drug exposure 340
and sterilization activity, as significant T90 reductions occur together with either increased 341
or reduced AUCratio (i.e., >2 or <.0.5, respectively) across paired combinations where one 342
drug differs. Overall, this exploratory analysis highlights that observed exposure-T90 343
associations must be treated with caution , in the absence of established PK -PD 344
relationships for each compound within the context of these specific 4-drug combinations. 345
Further caution should be exercised when considering translation: any PK drug -drug 346
interaction occurring which may be responsible for observed changes in AUC ratios when 347
one drug is substituted for another, may not translat e from mouse to human considering 348
metabolic and/or transporter mechanisms that influence drug (parent and/or metabolite) 349
disposition may differ. 350
351
Similar to B-free combinations, nitroimidazole-free combinations are of interest for their 352
utility against nitroimidazole -resistant TB which may emerge in the future [30]. We 353
evaluated the sterilizing activity of the DprE1 inhibitor Q, within multiple 4 -drug 354
combinations, for the first time . When either Pa or Del was replaced by Q, these 355
nitroimidazole-free combinations performed as well as the corresponding Pa - containing 356
combinations (i.e. BQSut286; T90 < 3 months) suggesting a similar sterilizing contribution 357
of this DprE1 inhibitor compared to nitroimidazoles, in these particular combinations. The 358
recently reported evaluation of Q together with B and Del in a Phase II clinical trial 359
supports the positive performance of Q within nitroimidazole-containing drug 360
combinations [29]. Our mouse study suggest s Q might be useful in nitroimidazole-free 361
regimens 362
363
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The datasets and modeling approaches used in this work allowed us to compare efficacy of 364
combinations across studies and to historical data, to compare exposures achi eved in PD 365
studies to clinical targets and to explore comparative contributions of drugs using PK and 366
PD data. However, further investigation of PK/PD for each agent within the combinations 367
of interest, and direct comparisons of PK and PD for 4 -drug combinations versus their 3-368
drug components, are needed to better understand the contributions of each agent and, in 369
some cases, their active metabolites, to overall combination efficacy, exposure-response 370
relationships and potential PK or PD drug-drug interactions. 371
372
These studies constitute the first step in PAN -TB's nonclinical strategy to prioritize and 373
characterize novel drug combinations to support decision-making and progression through 374
development. The use of this well-established mouse model together with careful dose 375
selection and exposure evaluation, allowed us to assess and compare bactericidal and 376
sterilizing activity of large numbers of drug combinations at relevant exposures in mice as 377
a first step towards prioritization and characterization. The population model ling 378
approaches used for both T90 derivation and PK allowed us to rank combinations with 379
historically tested combinations, across studies and understand the relationship between 380
duration of treatment and cure for each tested combinations while reducing the overall 381
number of mice required . Although the T90 rankings from these BALB/c data appeared 382
generally consistent with clinical results, the model has limitations, including pathology 383
that does not include all lesion types seen in TB patients (e.g those exhibiting caseous 384
necrosis and cavitation). 385
386
For this reason, the extent to which findings from BALB/c RMM studies translate to the 387
clinic is hard to predict without further clinical data for comparison to mouse -tested 388
combinations or BALB/c mouse RMM data for regimens recently evaluated in the clinic 389
(e.g Rifapentine (P)HMZ) [31]. Notably, the recently completed Gates MRI -TBD06-201 390
PAN-TB trial, which evaluated the PAN -TB investigational regimens DBQS and PBQS, 391
concluded that although both regimens demonstrated strong bactericidal activity by the end 392
of treatment when administered for 4 months neither, showed sufficient evidence for being 393
able to treat TB in 3 months or less based on 2- and 3-month sputum culture conversion 394
rates and TB recurrences after treatment completion . When assessed by 12 -month post-395
randomization unfavorable outcome rates, the 4-month PBQS regimen performed similarly 396
to 6-month HRZE (Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2025: 29 (11 Suppl 1): S1 – S963). 397
398
These findings are consistent with the data reported here, where BPaQS ut and BDelQSut 399
T90s are 3.48 and 4.6 months, respectively compared with RHZE/RH which cured 90% of 400
mice in 5.09 months. 401
402
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403
For combinations of interest identified through these studies, as well as those prioritized 404
based on subsequent BALB/c RMM studies, PAN -TB intends to generate significant 405
additional nonclinical data for use as translational model ling inputs for prediction of 406
clinical performance and to support decision-making. Some examples include nonclinical 407
lesion PK studies, activity studies in caseum (using an ex vivo assay), and evaluation of 408
T90s in mouse models featuring caseous necrotic lesions (the Kramnik RMM). Evaluation 409
of p erformance of combinations against mouse models where the infecting strain is 410
resistant to a key drug class will also be important. Finally, combination efficacy studies 411
will be conducted in mouse models to better understand the individual contributions of 412
each agent, to confirm the ir pharmacological value and to inform future regimen design. 413
Promising data has been recently reported for both newer diarylquinolines (e.g. 414
sorfequiline (TBAJ-876) [25]) and oxazolidinones (e.g. TBD09 –[32]) as well as for 415
TBD11, a compound from a different chemical series with a similar mechanism of action 416
as 286, suggest potential to improve on the high -performing first generation PAN -TB 417
regimens by introducing these next generation compounds. Accordingly, the PAN -TB 418
collaboration has introduced sorfequiline, TBD09 and TBD11 to its candidate pool and in 419
addition to seeking a better understanding of the top performing regimens reported here, is 420
conducting further BALB/c RMM studies using th e above workflow, to evaluate and 421
compare their bactericidal and sterilizing activities at exposures likely to be targeted in the 422
clinic in potential next generation regimens. The most important outcome of this first study 423
from the PAN -TB consortium has been the successful assembly of novel drugs from 424
different partner organizations and designing and testing drug combinations in a consistent 425
format that will highlight the most promising regimens ready for direct clinical evaluation, 426
thus reducing the time to delivery of these needed interventions to patients. 427
428
Material and methods
429
Animals and ethics 430
All mouse experiments were carried out at the Evotec France SAS animal facility. This 431
facility is accredited by the French Ministry of Agriculture and by the Association for 432
Assessment and Accreditation of Laboratory Animal Care International (AAALAC). All 433
studies were performed under the European Communities Council Directive 434
(2010/063/EU) for the care and use of laboratory animals and approved by local Ethical 435
Committee CEPAL: CE 029 and authorized by the French Ministry of Education, 436
Advanced Studies , and Research. Six-week-old female BALB/cJRj mice from Janvier 437
Laboratories were group housed in bioconfined cages (Isocage, Tecniplast®) under a 12h 438
light:12h dark with free access to filtered water and a standard rodent diet (AO4C, Safe, 439
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France). An ambient temperature of 22 ± 2°C, a relative humidity of 55 ± 10 % , and a 440
negative pressure of -20Pa were maintained throughout the study. All mice were allowed 441
to acclimatize to their new environment for at least 5 days prior to the start of the study. 442
Drug Formulations and Dosing Strategies 443
Drugs were acquired or provided by PAN -TB consortium members , and formulations 444
prepared for dosing as follows at the selected doses (Table 2). B (J&J IM) was formulated 445
in 20% 2 -hydroxypropy-β-cyclodextrin; Pa (TB Alliance) was formulated in 10% 446
Hydroxy-propyl-beta-cyclodextrin and 2% soy lecithin for dosing at 100mg/kg for the 447
BPaMZ control group, and at 40 mg/kg for the PAN -TB 4-drug combinations. M (LTK 448
Laboratories) and Z (Sigma) were co-formulated in water for dosing at 100mg/kg and 150 449
mg/kg, respectively. R (Sigma) was prepared in water for dosing at 10 mg/kg; H (Sigma), 450
Z (Sigma) and E (Sigma) were co-formulated in water for dosing at 10, 150 and 100mg/kg, 451
respectively. Del (Otsuka) and Q (Otsuka) were formulated in 5% Arabic gum. 286 (GSK), 452
656 (GSK) and 830 (GSK) were formulated in 1% methylcellulose solution. Sut (TB 453
Alliance) was formulated in 0.5% methylcellulose and 5% PEG200 . For each PAN-TB 454
combination, each drug was dosed individually with an interval of 2 hours between each 455
drug. The order of dosing for each drug in each combination was based on the half-life of 456
each drug where drugs with longest half -lives were administered first and drugs with 457
shorter half-lives were given later in the day. The drug dosing order for each combination 458
is indicated in the name of the combination i.e. the drug listed first was dosed first, and so 459
on. For the BPaMZ comparator, B was administered first, followed by Pa and finally MZ, 460
dosed as a co-formulation. For the RHZE/RH comparator, R was dosed individually for 461
the first 8 weeks, followed by co-formulated HZE. For the following 8 weeks, R and H 462
were dosed individually. The same 2h interval was applied between 2 administrations for 463
the comparators as for the test combinations. 464
Relapsing Mouse Model 465
The 25 PAN -TB combinations were evaluated across two RMM studies. The first 12 466
combinations were tested in Study 1 (named Wave 2022 in the C-PATH APEX database: 467
https://c-path.org/tools-platforms/tb-apex) and the second 13 combinations in Study 2 468
(named Wave 2023 in the C-PATH APEX database: https://c-path.org/tools-platforms/tb-469
apex). BPaMZ and RHZE/RH comparators were included as controls in each Study. Both 470
studies included 4 to 6 mice per group, per time point, allocated following a similar 471
approach to that reported previously [23] and described in Table S1. M.tb H37Rv stock 472
solution was prepared at exponential growth phase in 7H9 medium / 10% OADC (oleic 473
acid-albumin dextrose-catalase) / 15% glycerol. At Day -14, female BALB/c mice were 474
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anaesthetized with 2.5% isoflurane in 97.5% oxygen and were intranasally infected with 475
50µL M.tb H37Rv at an inoculum level of 4.5 Log 10 CFU/mouse.. Treatment started 14 476
days post infection, designated Day 0. All drug combinations except RHZE/RH were dosed 477
once daily by oral gavage for 5 days a week (omitting the weekend) for 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, or 12 478
weeks. RHZE/RH was dosed for 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14 or 16 weeks where RHZE was given 479
for the first 8 weeks followed by RH only for the following 8 weeks. For analysis of mouse 480
lung bacterial burden at the end of each designated treatment period, mice were sacrificed 481
24h post last dosing. For relapse assessment, mice were sacrificed 12 weeks after the end 482
of each designated treatment period. Following sacrifice, lungs were collected , weighed 483
and lung samples homogenized and plated undiluted, or serially diluted on 7H11-OADC + 484
0.4% activated charcoal. Plates were incubated at 37°C for 6 weeks for CFU quantification. 485
Undetectable level was considered when no colonies were observed in all plates for the 486
sample. 487
488
Pharmacokinetics 489
Combination PK studies were conducted , before the RMM studies, in female BALB/c 490
mice, intranasally infected with M.tb H37Rv in the same manner as for the RMM studies 491
(see RMM section of Materials and Methods) . Beginning 14 days post-infection (Day 0) 492
24 mice per group were treated with each test combination via oral gavage either once or 493
once daily for 5 days. The 5-day dosing period was selected based on the short terminal 494
half-lives of the drugs ( Table S3), suggesting at least 80% of the s teady-state is reached 495
after 5 days treatment duration (5 days > 5 times of T1/2). The only exception is the 496
bedaquiline M2 (desmethyl) metabolite (B -M2), which exhibits a longer half -life. It is 497
assumed that the late sparse PK samples in the RMM study (Week 8) provide enough 498
information to correctly estimate the PK parameters for this entity. Doses were selected 499
based on historical data from PAN-TB members. The order and spacing of administrations 500
were performed as for the RMM studies (see Dose Formulations and Dosing Strategies) . 501
Blood samples were collected from the tail vein on days 1 (after single dosing) and 5 (after 502
once daily repeat administration) at 0.5, 2.5, 5.5, 7.5, 10, 12, 14, 24, 36, 29, and 31 hours 503
post administration of the first drug. Additionally, for each combination, plasma and blood 504
intra-cardiac concentrations were assessed on Day 1 and Day 5 at 2.5, 7.5, 14, and 31 hours 505
post-first compound dosing. During RMM studies, on the 5 th day of the 8 th week of 506
treatment, blood was collected from the tail vein at 0.5, 2.5, 5.5, 7.5, 9 and 24 hours post -507
first compound dosing. In all cases, after blood processing, each compound, including B -508
M2, and the active (sulfoxide) metabolite of sutezolid (PNU -101603) were quantified by 509
liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC -MS/MS). Bioanalytical methods, 510
samples handling, as well as MS conditions are described in supplemental data. All PK 511
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assessments were conducted in blood. Blood and plasma concentrations determined 512
through the Combination PK studies were used to calculate mouse geometric mean Blood-513
to-Plasma (BP) ratios ( Table 2 ) for each drug . These values were used to facilitate 514
translation of blood to plasma exposure values for head -to-head comparison s between 515
observed mouse and clinical target exposures (see Population PK Modelling). 516
Population PK Modelling 517
For each compound tested across the 25 PAN-TB combinations, a population 518
pharmacokinetic (popPK) model was developed to describe the mouse PK profile. After 519
identifying each specific model, post-hoc estimates were used to calculate total exposures, 520
i.e. AUC0-24, accounting for the variability observed across animals in terms of summary 521
statistics (median, 5 th, 25th, 75th and 95th percentiles). Blood concentration data collected 522
during the RMMs were pooled with those collected in the Combination PK studies to 523
ensure a sufficient number of observations required for robust model development and 524
parameters estimation. More details about model selection criteria are provided in the 525
supplemental material (see PopPK model verification and quality criteria). For B and Sut 526
their main active metabolites , B-M2 and PNU-101603 respectively, were included in the 527
model description to derive the overall exposure. As the parent drug and corresponding 528
metabolite contribute to efficacy in mouse and human at different relative levels [33, 34, 529
35, 36], the active moiety approach was adopted to compare the relevance of preclinical 530
exposure values to clinical exposures, considering the plasma AUC 0-24/MIC90 ratios 531
(AUC24MIC) in both human and mouse: 532
𝐴𝑈𝐶24𝑀𝐼𝐶 = (𝐴𝑈𝐶24
𝑀𝐼𝐶 )
𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡
+ (𝐴𝑈𝐶24
𝑀𝐼𝐶 )
𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑒
533
To enable comparisons of mouse exposures against clinical plasma targets, simulated blood 534
concentrations were converted to plasma values using the compound -specific geometric 535
mean Blood-to-Plasma (BP) ratio (Table 2). The area under the curve, during the 24 hours 536
post drug administration (AUC0-24, ngh/mL) was determined, assuming a dense simulation 537
time grid (i.e., 0.1 h sampling frequency) which enabled robust determination of the total 538
exposure in plasma. PopPK modelling was performed with Monolix Suite® (Build 2024R1, 539
Lixoft) running on a Windows 11, 64 -bit operating system. All models were identified 540
using a Stochastic Approximation Expectation-Maximization ( SAEM) algorithm. All 541
analyses for the extrapolation of exposure metrics were performed using R Statistical 542
Software (v4.4.2; R Core Team 2024). 543
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Logistic Emax Model 544
A logistic Emax model was applied, as previously described [23] using data obtained from 545
Study 1 and Study 2 plus a historical dataset. The historical dataset consisted of data 546
utilized in previous modelling efforts [37] as well as other literature data [19, 38, 39] and 547
unpublished historical data generated at Evotec . The Evotec internal studies assessed 548
efficacy of RHZ/RH, BPaL and PaMZ dosed 5/7 or 7/7 days per week in a BALB/c RMM 549
and data from these studies is available via the C-PATH APEX platform (https://c-550
path.org/tools-platforms/tb-apex). 551
Data were pooled from the same treatment group collected from different studies (i.e. 552
within the historical and present datasets). For each combination, i and study k, γ and T50 553
parameters were estimated and subsequently used to calculate the related T90, according 554
to the following formula: 555
𝑇90𝑖 = 10
𝑙𝑜𝑔10(𝑇50𝑖)+( 1
𝛾′𝑖
𝑙𝑜𝑔10( 90
100−90))
(Population) 556
𝑇90𝑖𝑘 = 10
𝑙𝑜𝑔10(𝑇50𝑖𝑘)+( 1
𝛾′𝑖
𝑙𝑜𝑔10( 90
100−90))
(Individual) 557
Population parameters T50 and T90 enabled characterization of the average time to 50% 558
or 90% cure respectively, for a particular combination across studies, independent of study-559
related factors (e.g., starting inoculum), while individual parameters (e.g. T50ik and T90ik) 560
provide the average time to 50% or 90% cure for each specific study. To limit the number 561
of parameters to be estimated and overcome identifiability issues , c ombinations in the 562
historical dataset that share the same drugs but were administered at different dose levels 563
or with differing dose schedules were parametrized with different T50 parameters, 564
assuming the same γ value (i.e. steepness of the relapse -time curve). To estimate model 565
precision and support comparison s of the combinations, confidence intervals (CI) were 566
computed for T90s. Since T90 was derived from T50 and γ estimates, the delta method 567
[41] was employed to compute an approximation of its standard error (SE), assuming that 568
correlation between T50 and γ is negligible (assessed by the non -parametric Spearman 569
correlation test being T50 and γ not normally distributed, with p -value lower than 0.05 570
considered statistically significant) . Once T90 SE had been obtained, 2.5 th and 97.5 th 571
percentiles (i.e. CI lower limit and C Iupper limit , respectively) were computed for each 572
combination by assuming normally distributed data, as follows: 573
𝑇90 𝐶𝐼𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑡 = 𝑇90 − 𝑆𝐸 ∗ 1.96 574
𝑇90 𝐶𝐼𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑡 = 𝑇90 + 𝑆𝐸 ∗ 1.96 575
.CC-BY 4.0 International licenseavailable under a
was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made
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18
The logistic Emax model was developed using NONMEM® 7.5.1 and data handling was 576
performed using SAS® version 9.4 and R Statistical Software (v4.4.2; R Core Team 2024). 577
Statistical Analysis 578
Statistical analysis was conducted to evaluate differences between a set of pairwise drug 579
combinations that differed by only one component. The analysis considered both overall 580
T90 results and exposure levels (AUC0-24) of the drugs common to the combinations. 581
Specifically, T90 results were compared using a Z -test, assuming that T90 values are 582
normally distributed, and their standard errors are known. AUC comparisons were 583
performed using a t -test with unequal variances on log -transformed data. No formal 584
correction for multiple comparisons was applied, as the analyses were exploratory . P-585
values below 0.05 were considered statistically significant. 586
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26
832
FIGURE LEGENDS 833
Figure 1 Distribution of plasma AUC0-24 (AUC0-24/MIC for B and Sut) from popPK 834
analysis versus clinical target. 835
836
Figure 2 Lung bacterial burden at end of treatment in Study 1 (A) and Study 2 (B). 837
Whole lung CFU of BALB/c mice, intranasally infected with M.tb H37Rv, after different 838
durations of oral treatment with 4-drug combinations, dosed 5/7. Treatments were initiated 839
2-weeks post infection. 840
Figure 3 Probability of relapse with treatment duration for BALB/c mice treated with 841
combinations tested in Study 1 and Study 2 RMM studies (ordered by individual T90 842
in the legend). 843
Sterilization curves indicating the probability of relapse over treatment time, constructed 844
by fitting observed relapse data (Table 4) to an Emax model developed using a large 845
historical RMM dataset. Observed relapse data are indicated for each test regimen using 846
open symbols and crosses. The time to 50% cure/relapse is estimated from these curves, 847
and the time to 90% cure (i.e. 10% relapse) is derived utilizing time to 50% cure estimates 848
together with steepness of the curve (gamma) as explained in Methods. 849
Figure 4 Ranking of population T90 values with 95% confidence intervals for all 850
combinations (historical dataset + Study 1 and Study 2 RMM combinations). 851
852
853
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was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made
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27
854
TABLES 855
856
Delamanid-containing
combinations
Pretomanid-containing
combinations
Nitroimidazole-free
combinations
1. B Del Q 830 11. B Pa Q 656 21. B Q 656 286
2. B Del Q 286 12. B Pa Q 286 22. B Q 656 Sut
3. B Del Q Sut 13. B Pa Q Sut 23. B Q Sut 286
4. B Del 656 286 14. B Pa 656 286 24. Q 656 286 Sut
5. B Del 830 Sut 15. B Pa 830 Sut 25. B 656 286 Sut
6. B Del 286 Sut 16. B Pa 286 Sut
7. Del Q 656 286 17. Pa Q 656 286
8. Del Q 656 Sut 18. Pa Q 656 Sut
9. Del Q Sut 286 19. Pa Q Sut 286
10. Del 656 286 Sut 20. Pa 656 286 Sut
Total: 10 Total: 10 Total: 5
Table 1 PAN-TB 4-drug Combinations
Combinations in blue font were tested in Study 1. Combinations in black font were tested in
Study 2. 830 was replaced by 656 in Study 2.
857
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was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made
The copyright holder for this preprint (whichthis version posted May 7, 2026. ; https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.05.05.722941doi: bioRxiv preprint
28
858
Compounds
(Blood to plasma ratio)
Target
human
plasma
AUC0-24
(µg*h/mL)