What influences national ambition in clean transport policy? A statistical analysis of NDC climate mitigation targets and driving factors.

What influences national ambition in clean transport policy? A statistical analysis of NDC climate mitigation targets and driving factors. | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article What influences national ambition in clean transport policy? A statistical analysis of NDC climate mitigation targets and driving factors. David Sturgess, Neil Ferguson, James Dixon This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6254804/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Current pledges in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) imply emissions trajectories that do not align with the Paris Agreement. The transport sector is critically detrimental, responsible for almost a quarter of global energy-related CO₂ emissions and not-on-track for net-zero by 2050. Previous study has focussed on which domestic factors are driving economy wide emission mitigation; we bring strongly warranted focus to the transport sector. To determine whether sectoral complexities are being overlooked, we first conceptualise and quantify a novel formulation of climate policy ambition, applicable on a sectoral level for 167 countries. Second, we conduct quantitative analyses to assess the effects of a set of structural and socio-institutional domestic factors on ambition. Our findings reveal that coal rents, climate vulnerability, control of corruption, electoral democracy and GDP per capita have strong positive effects on ambition. Conversely, oil rents, climate adaptive readiness and electric-vehicle critical mineral endowments have negative effects. These results vary significantly from economy-wide findings, suggesting that sector-specific complexities have historically been overlooked. Greater resolution of transport-specific factors that influence policy ambition can contribute to maximising sectoral trade-offs and synergies to gain greater stakeholder support and reconcile political economy with ambitious clean transport policy. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate change policy Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate change mitigation Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate change mitigation Social science/Environmental studies Ambition NDCs Transport Mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files supplementaryinfowhatinflndcambtra.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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