Exploring Temperature Trends and Evapotranspiration Modelling for Effective Water Management: A Comprehensive Analysis Using Mann-Kendall Test and Seasonal ARIMA Model

Exploring Temperature Trends and Evapotranspiration Modelling for Effective Water Management: A Comprehensive Analysis Using Mann-Kendall Test and Seasonal ARIMA Model | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Exploring Temperature Trends and Evapotranspiration Modelling for Effective Water Management: A Comprehensive Analysis Using Mann-Kendall Test and Seasonal ARIMA Model D. K. Dwivedi, P. A. Pandya, V. P. Joshi, Jaydeep Dave This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4146952/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The variations in temperature have a profound impact on the irrigation requirement during various stages of the crops. This study aimed to analyse the temperature trends using the Mann Kendall test and also modelled various meteorological parameters by Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) model, influencing evapotranspiration (ET). The model was validated for water requirement of wheat crop in Junagadh region of Gujarat during 2023 and 2024. February, March, and April consistently exhibited a highly significant positive trend with Mann Kendall test statistic of 3.325. 2.852 and 3.131 respectively whereas July, August, and November showed no distinct trend in minimum temperatures. A conspicuously significant trend in maximum temperature was not discerned throughout any of the months. SARIMA models (2,0,0)(2,1,1) 12 , (1,0,0)(0,1,1) 12 , (1,0,1)(0,1,1) 12 , (1,0,0)(0,1,1) 12 , and (2,0,2)(0,1,1) 12 were selected from a range of candidate models based on their AIC values and performance on test data for meteorological parameters including minimum temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and bright sunshine, respectively. The study estimated the climatic parameters using Penmen Monteith method, allowing us to predict reference evapotranspiration for 2023 and 2024. For the year 2024, the highest ET 0 of 188.7 mm was estimated in April followed by ET 0 of 186.6 mm in May 2024. The reference evapotranspiration predicted by the models were utilized to calculate the water requirement of wheat in the study area, resulting in an estimated value of 371 mm. These findings are useful for agricultural policymakers for making decisions pertaining to agricultural water management for optimal crop growth. Evapotranspiration Mann Kendall Penman Monteith Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model Water Management Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4146952","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":287431879,"identity":"78b0e2e4-da69-4648-ba33-a499c2975950","order_by":0,"name":"D. K. 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This study aimed to analyse the temperature trends using the Mann Kendall test and also modelled various meteorological parameters by Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) model, influencing evapotranspiration (ET). The model was validated for water requirement of wheat crop in Junagadh region of Gujarat during 2023 and 2024. February, March, and April consistently exhibited a highly significant positive trend with Mann Kendall test statistic of 3.325. 2.852 and 3.131 respectively whereas July, August, and November showed no distinct trend in minimum temperatures. A conspicuously significant trend in maximum temperature was not discerned throughout any of the months. SARIMA models (2,0,0)(2,1,1)\u003csub\u003e12\u003c/sub\u003e, (1,0,0)(0,1,1)\u003csub\u003e12\u003c/sub\u003e, (1,0,1)(0,1,1)\u003csub\u003e12\u003c/sub\u003e, (1,0,0)(0,1,1)\u003csub\u003e12\u003c/sub\u003e, and (2,0,2)(0,1,1)\u003csub\u003e12\u003c/sub\u003e were selected from a range of candidate models based on their AIC values and performance on test data for meteorological parameters including minimum temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and bright sunshine, respectively. The study estimated the climatic parameters using Penmen Monteith method, allowing us to predict reference evapotranspiration for 2023 and 2024. For the year 2024, the highest ET\u003csub\u003e0\u003c/sub\u003e of 188.7 mm was estimated in April followed by ET\u003csub\u003e0\u003c/sub\u003e of 186.6 mm in May 2024. The reference evapotranspiration predicted by the models were utilized to calculate the water requirement of wheat in the study area, resulting in an estimated value of 371 mm. These findings are useful for agricultural policymakers for making decisions pertaining to agricultural water management for optimal crop growth.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Exploring Temperature Trends and Evapotranspiration Modelling for Effective Water Management: A Comprehensive Analysis Using Mann-Kendall Test and Seasonal ARIMA Model","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-04-05 12:33:05","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4146952/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7723c03f-6473-4d62-8b87-d463a48df2d6","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 5th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-08-27T05:32:24+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-04-05 12:33:05","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4146952","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4146952","identity":"rs-4146952","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}