What is driving fire regimes in conservational landscapes? A spatio-temporal analysis of West African Protected Landscapes

What is driving fire regimes in conservational landscapes? A spatio-temporal analysis of West African Protected Landscapes | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF book-review What is driving fire regimes in conservational landscapes? A spatio-temporal analysis of West African Protected Landscapes Desmond Lartey, Aya Brigitte N’Dri, Esther Ekua Amoako, Eric Adjei Lawer, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7292536/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Understanding the drivers of fire regime is important for landscape management, especially in fire-prone protected areas in West Africa. Although broad-scale fire patterns have been studied globally, gaps exist in fine ecological gradients across protected landscapes where climate, vegetation, and human pressures intersect. Thus, limited knowledge exists on the effects of these factors on fire patterns in conservation areas. To bridge this gap, we assessed fire dynamics across 15 protected areas (PAs) in diverse ecological zones using 23 years (2001–2023) of MODIS-derived burned area data, ESA Worldcover, ERA5 and CHIRPS precipitation records. To explore the spatial and temporal drivers of fire activity, we addressed five questions: (1) why do some PAs burn more, (2) whether ecological zones and locations explain fire patterns better than land cover, (3) how land cover classes vary in burn extent and timing, (4) whether annual fire activity relates to seasonal rainfall, and (5) whether fire timing differs between PA interiors and surrounding landscapes. We found that PAs within the Northern Savanna zone showed highest fire activity from November to January due to open canopy and high grass biomass. PAs in the forest zone had lower fire activity under dense canopies and moist conditions. Also, dry-season precipitation negatively correlated with burned area, while wet-season rainfall had no effect. Fire frequency declined by 50% from the park edge outward to 20 km into the surrounding landscape. In addition, fires were more frequent in grasslands than forests, with parks like Comoé NP and Mole NP showing fire frequencies exceeding 0.7 burns per pixel per year. Fires outside parks occurred earlier than those within boundaries. While land cover types differed in fire responses, patterns were influenced by ecological zones and park protection status. Dry season burned area decreased by 3.1 km² for every mm increase in rainfall, reflecting a 23-year trend of declining fire extent in savanna parks under wetter conditions, whereas forested parks showed minimal change. This study advances our understanding of fire dynamics in conservation areas and necessary management responses under changing climate. Fire regime land use fire seasons fire management climate protected areas West Africa Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7292536","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"book-review","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":512580608,"identity":"4203bb96-3379-40d0-86c9-0f0023548918","order_by":0,"name":"Desmond Lartey","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPgjFDKF4ftgAScbGA/i0sAFVNMC18PakgbQ0kKCFh+0wmMavhf3s8wcf26zl5KcdPvbgDc95u7Xth4G21NhE49TCk27YOLMt3djgdlq64RyL28nbziQCtRxLy23A6bA0xmbetsOJG6RzzKR5eG4nmx0AamFsOIxbC/8zxua/bYfr588GaWE7l2x2/iEBLRJAWxjbDicw3AZrOWBndoOQLRLPGGf2nEs33HA7LU1ybk9ygtkNoC0JePzCz5/G8OFHmbW8/OzkYxJvftjZm51Pf/jgQ40NTi1gwMiGYCeCVSbgUw4GfxBMe4KKR8EoGAWjYMQBADh2YGP/gGlHAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"International School for Social and Business Studies","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Desmond","middleName":"","lastName":"Lartey","suffix":""},{"id":512580610,"identity":"9eb7368e-7c3e-4483-b97c-3b6460494198","order_by":1,"name":"Aya Brigitte N’Dri","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Université Nangui Abrogoua","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aya","middleName":"Brigitte","lastName":"N’Dri","suffix":""},{"id":512580613,"identity":"8e572d98-f1a3-41c6-8226-f08be836863b","order_by":2,"name":"Esther Ekua Amoako","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University for Development Studies","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Esther","middleName":"Ekua","lastName":"Amoako","suffix":""},{"id":512580615,"identity":"e0bd76ac-bbd8-42f0-8292-9b8e842d3344","order_by":3,"name":"Eric Adjei Lawer","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University for Development Studies","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eric","middleName":"Adjei","lastName":"Lawer","suffix":""},{"id":512580619,"identity":"7017ca4a-793c-49ef-9342-00acba01d67b","order_by":4,"name":"Hamza Issifu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University for Development Studies","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hamza","middleName":"","lastName":"Issifu","suffix":""},{"id":512580620,"identity":"59c47903-d468-48d9-8c5f-87aa9bf30bb6","order_by":5,"name":"Nandika Tsendbazar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Wageningen University and Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nandika","middleName":"","lastName":"Tsendbazar","suffix":""},{"id":512580622,"identity":"4b7f5253-77f0-4001-a082-fb2fba25d0f1","order_by":6,"name":"George Ametsitsi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Council for Scientific and Industrial Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"George","middleName":"","lastName":"Ametsitsi","suffix":""},{"id":512580624,"identity":"b2871810-32c9-47a1-bf7d-d08114d7a9b3","order_by":7,"name":"Thomas Janssen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Wageningen University and Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Thomas","middleName":"","lastName":"Janssen","suffix":""},{"id":512580626,"identity":"9c03fffd-adb2-4225-94e4-69bddd247f0e","order_by":8,"name":"Konan Amenan Sylvie","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Université Nangui Abrogoua","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Konan","middleName":"Amenan","lastName":"Sylvie","suffix":""},{"id":512580629,"identity":"c20facd9-6a8d-47af-8c31-82d59b9c0cb3","order_by":9,"name":"Elmar Veenendaal","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Wageningen University and Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Elmar","middleName":"","lastName":"Veenendaal","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-04 15:08:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7292536/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7292536/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":94824724,"identity":"736bb454-cd9e-42f8-a6db-bc71e47be2c5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-31 06:49:15","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1889295,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"FireRegimeManuscriptwithCA.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7292536/v1_covered_016d92e2-28bc-4fb3-bddd-5cc66f56a5b1.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"What is driving fire regimes in conservational landscapes? 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Although broad-scale fire patterns have been studied globally, gaps exist in fine ecological gradients across protected landscapes where climate, vegetation, and human pressures intersect. Thus, limited knowledge exists on the effects of these factors on fire patterns in conservation areas. To bridge this gap, we assessed fire dynamics across 15 protected areas (PAs) in diverse ecological zones using 23 years (2001\u0026ndash;2023) of MODIS-derived burned area data, ESA Worldcover, ERA5 and CHIRPS precipitation records. To explore the spatial and temporal drivers of fire activity, we addressed five questions: (1) why do some PAs burn more, (2) whether ecological zones and locations explain fire patterns better than land cover, (3) how land cover classes vary in burn extent and timing, (4) whether annual fire activity relates to seasonal rainfall, and (5) whether fire timing differs between PA interiors and surrounding landscapes.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWe found that PAs within the Northern Savanna zone showed highest fire activity from November to January due to open canopy and high grass biomass. PAs in the forest zone had lower fire activity under dense canopies and moist conditions. Also, dry-season precipitation negatively correlated with burned area, while wet-season rainfall had no effect. Fire frequency declined by 50% from the park edge outward to 20 km into the surrounding landscape. In addition, fires were more frequent in grasslands than forests, with parks like Como\u0026eacute; NP and Mole NP showing fire frequencies exceeding 0.7 burns per pixel per year. Fires outside parks occurred earlier than those within boundaries. While land cover types differed in fire responses, patterns were influenced by ecological zones and park protection status. Dry season burned area decreased by 3.1 km\u0026sup2; for every mm increase in rainfall, reflecting a 23-year trend of declining fire extent in savanna parks under wetter conditions, whereas forested parks showed minimal change. This study advances our understanding of fire dynamics in conservation areas and necessary management responses under changing climate.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"What is driving fire regimes in conservational landscapes? 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