A new environmental-based tool to support forest breeders in selecting species adapted to current and near-term climate conditions

A new environmental-based tool to support forest breeders in selecting species adapted to current and near-term climate conditions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A new environmental-based tool to support forest breeders in selecting species adapted to current and near-term climate conditions Ricardo Cavalheiro, Aurelio Mendes Aguiar, Ranga Raju Vatsavai, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8693101/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study presents SST (Species Selection Tool), a climate-based framework designed to support species selection across geographic regions and climate scenarios. The tool was developed to enable breeders to examine species selection scenarios across countries and climate horizons. Beyond identifying promising species for testing, SST prioritizes candidate species, highlights opportunities for germplasm exchange, anticipates climate-driven shifts, and maps environmental clusters and adapted genetic resources to guide near- and long-term breeding strategies. Built with the Shiny framework in R, SST allows users to upload tabular data in CSV format for flexible analyses. We demonstrate its application for a Eucalyptus breeding example in Brazil, using occurrence data from GBIF and environmental covariates from TerraClimate and CHIRPS, and complemented by CMIP6 future climate projections. Temperature and precipitation data were used to compute 19 bioclimatic variables (BIO1–BIO19) for macroenvironmental classification and species suitability assessment. SST integrates five analytical indices scaled between 0 and 1, producing an overall suitability index and ranking species accordingly. The tool identified E. urophylla , E. brassiana , E. deglupta , and E. pellita as the most suitable for the studied area located in the region of Maranhão State, Brazil. Open-source and user-friendly, SST accelerates breeding decisions, supports climate-adaptive planning, and provides access to advanced analytical tools. The tool is a useful contribution to forest management and forest tree breeding, supporting data-driven strategies for sustainable forestry under changing climates. adaptation climate change impacts resilience species suitability Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files S2speciesenvelope.xlsx S1listofspecies.xlsx S3SuplementaryMaterial.docx S5MaxEntresults.xlsx S4SuplementaryMaterial.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8693101","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":585911909,"identity":"734094c4-5e9e-4fc2-a87c-a67a0b6858f3","order_by":0,"name":"Ricardo Cavalheiro","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAt0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYNCCggNyUBYzsVoMDhiTriWxgWgt5u2Hn0n8MLiTvp39+DMJhgprmF7cQOZMmplkj8Gz3J09OWYSDGfSCWuRkGAwNuAxOJy74QYPmwRj22FitLB/NvxjcDjd4Ab7MwnGf0Rp4TF8DLQlweAGg5kEYwMxWnhyCh/LGBw23HAmx9gi4Vi6MWEt7Mc3HHxTcVje4Pjxhzc+1FjLEtSCChJIUz4KRsEoGAWjABcAAEuLO+KFHnNlAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Camcore","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ricardo","middleName":"","lastName":"Cavalheiro","suffix":""},{"id":585911910,"identity":"01fa7ddf-3b57-43d7-a035-ce6a654779b1","order_by":1,"name":"Aurelio Mendes Aguiar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Suzano (Brazil)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aurelio","middleName":"Mendes","lastName":"Aguiar","suffix":""},{"id":585911911,"identity":"cbbbfe6f-f146-47b6-adb4-6382ae4e4c6d","order_by":2,"name":"Ranga Raju Vatsavai","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"North Carolina State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ranga","middleName":"Raju","lastName":"Vatsavai","suffix":""},{"id":585911912,"identity":"ba5ba444-b9a9-4f6f-bd3d-314314d4573c","order_by":3,"name":"Mragisha Jain","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"North Carolina State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mragisha","middleName":"","lastName":"Jain","suffix":""},{"id":585911913,"identity":"76d40757-fbdb-4ff7-8bf9-2305b31b09de","order_by":4,"name":"William M. 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