Global carbon intensity of LNG value chain amid intensifying energy security and climate trade-offs

Global carbon intensity of LNG value chain amid intensifying energy security and climate trade-offs | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Global carbon intensity of LNG value chain amid intensifying energy security and climate trade-offs Mohammad S. Masnadi, Wennan Long, Liang Jing, Zemin Eitan Liu, and 14 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7255872/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The recent global energy crisis, originating from the global pandemic, disruption in supply chains, and Europe's geopolitical developments, drove unprecedented reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1,2]. Yet, LNG's supply chain climate implications have remained poorly quantified [3]. Here, we present the first comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions assessment of global LNG value chain by capturing 85% of global LNG trade in 2022 by covering 2,500 oil and gas fields, >1,000 gas processing plants, 33 liquefaction terminals, 123 regasification terminals, 1.25 million km of natural gas transmission pipeline, and 948 unique LNG trade routes. We find that carbon intensity varies threefold between supply chains, from 8.0 to 26 g CO2eq./MJ, with methane emissions accounting for over half of the total climate impact, where approximately 75% of total methane emissions originate from superemitters. Our analysis of 948 trade routes reveals that importing countries' emissions profiles depend heavily on supply choices. Japan maintains below-average intensity through selective sourcing, while Spain's reliance on high-emission suppliers doubles its carbon footprint. While our analysis reveals no strong explicit correlation between carbon intensity and terminal LNG sales economics, more granular project-level analysis reveals systematic relationship between both combustion-related emissions and methane emissions, and LNG sales price. Meeting proposed methane regulations would require some exporters to cut emissions by up to 98%, potentially reshaping global trade patterns. These findings provide granular data needed to align energy security with climate goals, as LNG demand is projected to grow 40% by 2030 [2,4]. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Fossil fuels/Natural gas Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files GlobalLNGCIpaperSM.pdf Supplementary Materials (SM) Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7255872","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":497437636,"identity":"5bc2c0f3-1348-492d-b862-ecaf639f0645","order_by":0,"name":"Mohammad S. Masnadi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAyElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBADxjb2BoYDYOYBorXwHGA4cCCBFC0NEkDlRGnRbeBO/Phzh51sn+Tbg4c//mCQ47uRgF+L2QHezdK8Z5KN26TzEkAOM5YkQssGacY25sQ26RwDkJbEDcTY8vNnW31im+QZsJZ6YrRsk+BtO5zYJsED1pJgQFDLYd5t1rxtx43beIB+OZMmYTjzzAMCWo73br75s61adn772cMfKmxs5PmOE7CFgRnO4gEREgSUowIeklSPglEwCkbBCAIACOdLsPmXl/8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3834-0241","institution":"University of Pittsburgh","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mohammad","middleName":"S.","lastName":"Masnadi","suffix":""},{"id":497437637,"identity":"b7b813d5-501e-42f9-9c9c-b2c350ba5098","order_by":1,"name":"Wennan Long","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Pittsburgh","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wennan","middleName":"","lastName":"Long","suffix":""},{"id":497437638,"identity":"f17ac5fd-20f0-48a8-a006-82204382d659","order_by":2,"name":"Liang Jing","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7155-9993","institution":"Saudi Aramco","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Liang","middleName":"","lastName":"Jing","suffix":""},{"id":497437639,"identity":"ca541c51-05bc-42e9-8844-7c1d1c270469","order_by":3,"name":"Zemin Eitan Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Pittsburgh","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zemin","middleName":"Eitan","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":497437640,"identity":"e837a070-0dc3-4a91-807d-523f4fdf2de7","order_by":4,"name":"Muhammad Y. Jabbar","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0008-4872-2834","institution":"Saudi Aramco","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Muhammad","middleName":"Y.","lastName":"Jabbar","suffix":""},{"id":497437641,"identity":"c078045b-c190-4018-bfb3-06900b09535f","order_by":5,"name":"Zhenlin Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Stanford University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhenlin","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":497437642,"identity":"f4b44a79-bcf1-4ae4-9698-068d27b68ece","order_by":6,"name":"Diego Moya","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Saudi Aramco","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Diego","middleName":"","lastName":"Moya","suffix":""},{"id":497437643,"identity":"e26300bc-b2df-498d-941f-fda7e92575ce","order_by":7,"name":"Bo Ren","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Aramco Americas","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bo","middleName":"","lastName":"Ren","suffix":""},{"id":497437644,"identity":"b573d01f-4973-4fa6-a2c7-d496c8d84782","order_by":8,"name":"Haoming Ma","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The University of Texas at Austin, and University of Wyoming","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Haoming","middleName":"","lastName":"Ma","suffix":""},{"id":497437645,"identity":"f10b70c4-ed58-4013-b962-902eb656e6b3","order_by":9,"name":"James Littlefield","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Aramco Americas","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"James","middleName":"","lastName":"Littlefield","suffix":""},{"id":497437646,"identity":"1cb83fb3-3999-41e8-909d-e39078e57ea0","order_by":10,"name":"Farah Ramadan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Aramco Americas","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Farah","middleName":"","lastName":"Ramadan","suffix":""},{"id":497437647,"identity":"a1fb69a0-0b2d-41d3-8c2e-a9cabb0fac48","order_by":11,"name":"Amjaad Al-Qahtani","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Saudi Aramco","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Amjaad","middleName":"","lastName":"Al-Qahtani","suffix":""},{"id":497437648,"identity":"ee093936-5a57-454b-a0a3-a62d1664e348","order_by":12,"name":"Dabo Guan","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3773-3403","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dabo","middleName":"","lastName":"Guan","suffix":""},{"id":497437649,"identity":"f0b17400-a3fa-4092-a3b7-61fae4d1f8d2","order_by":13,"name":"Xiaotao T. Bi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of British Columbia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiaotao","middleName":"T.","lastName":"Bi","suffix":""},{"id":497437650,"identity":"178bdc26-9c1a-4077-8b71-aac71c51af03","order_by":14,"name":"Joule Bergerson","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4736-3509","institution":"Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, Energy, Environment, Experiential Learning Building, University of Calgary, Canada","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Joule","middleName":"","lastName":"Bergerson","suffix":""},{"id":497437651,"identity":"8f912dba-a91b-4f32-aaef-360291c95651","order_by":15,"name":"Arvind P. Ravikumar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The University of Texas at Austin","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Arvind","middleName":"P.","lastName":"Ravikumar","suffix":""},{"id":497437652,"identity":"f81e43a0-b798-420b-b7ec-adbc08c3d328","order_by":16,"name":"Adam Brandt","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2528-1473","institution":"Stanford","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Adam","middleName":"","lastName":"Brandt","suffix":""},{"id":497437653,"identity":"82f825bf-0bbb-4c91-835c-4dc48759f0dc","order_by":17,"name":"Hassan El-Houjeiri","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hassan","middleName":"","lastName":"El-Houjeiri","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-30 19:21:04","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7255872/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7255872/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":99798363,"identity":"0cb0407f-da4f-49f6-bc29-927a67e3895a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-08 13:48:06","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1519273,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Mainmanuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7255872/v1_covered_e5ef966c-97e0-42b1-ad1d-67b2ceb3087d.pdf"},{"id":88943889,"identity":"5fb44f8d-0233-4f96-ad36-da93036b000d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-13 04:14:06","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":15197723,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Materials (SM)","description":"","filename":"GlobalLNGCIpaperSM.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7255872/v1/b1863ce454fe03a8c316c338.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Global carbon intensity of LNG value chain amid intensifying energy security and climate trade-offs","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7255872/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7255872/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The recent global energy crisis, originating from the global pandemic, disruption in supply chains, and Europe's geopolitical developments, drove unprecedented reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1,2]. Yet, LNG's supply chain climate implications have remained poorly quantified [3]. Here, we present the first comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions assessment of global LNG value chain by capturing 85% of global LNG trade in 2022 by covering 2,500 oil and gas fields, \u003e1,000 gas processing plants, 33 liquefaction terminals, 123 regasification terminals, 1.25 million km of natural gas transmission pipeline, and 948 unique LNG trade routes. We find that carbon intensity varies threefold between supply chains, from 8.0 to 26 g CO2eq./MJ, with methane emissions accounting for over half of the total climate impact, where approximately 75% of total methane emissions originate from superemitters. Our analysis of 948 trade routes reveals that importing countries' emissions profiles depend heavily on supply choices. Japan maintains below-average intensity through selective sourcing, while Spain's reliance on high-emission suppliers doubles its carbon footprint. While our analysis reveals no strong explicit correlation between carbon intensity and terminal LNG sales economics, more granular project-level analysis reveals systematic relationship between both combustion-related emissions and methane emissions, and LNG sales price. Meeting proposed methane regulations would require some exporters to cut emissions by up to 98%, potentially reshaping global trade patterns. These findings provide granular data needed to align energy security with climate goals, as LNG demand is projected to grow 40% by 2030 [2,4].","manuscriptTitle":"Global carbon intensity of LNG value chain amid intensifying energy security and climate trade-offs","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-08-13 04:14:00","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7255872/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5fdf7c2f-a26d-4bb4-8b65-b32cf1af3989","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 13th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":52841886,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact"},{"id":52841887,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling"},{"id":52841888,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation"},{"id":52841889,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Fossil fuels/Natural gas"},{"id":52841890,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-05T07:51:13+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-08-13 04:14:00","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7255872","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7255872","identity":"rs-7255872","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}