A Stable and Sustainable Maximum Orbital Capacity in Low Earth Orbit

Stable and Sustainable Orbital Capacity Solutions in Low Earth Orbit | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Stable and Sustainable Orbital Capacity Solutions in Low Earth Orbit Giovanni Lavezzi, Daniel Jang, Richard Linares This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4927491/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract The significant increase in the population of satellites in Low Earth Orbit raises concerns about the orbital carrying capacity, essentially the ability of the Low Earth Orbit environment to sustain a certain number of satellites without unsustainable levels of risk due to space debris or collisions. More in-orbit collisions can generate debris that further threatens operational satellites and human spaceflight missions. The open-source MIT Orbital Capacity Assessment Tool is adopted to optimize the number of satellites that fit in the Low Earth Orbit region under dynamical system equilibrium and sustainability constraints. The results show an opposite trend between active satellites and debris for a sustainable centuries-long space environment: the number of active satellites decreases with altitude, while the amount of debris increases. Higher altitudes exhibit a greater sensitivity to the number of satellites they can accommodate. Even a small number of satellites at high altitudes can significantly reduce the equilibrium orbital capacity of the space environment. Our results provide a stable upper boundary for the Low Earth Orbit carrying capacity, supported by a first- ever comparison and validation analysis between a source-sink model of the space environment population, incorporating a novel debris creation and spreading function, with Monte-Carlo methods. Physical sciences/Engineering/Aerospace engineering Physical sciences/Astronomy and planetary science Source-Sink Evolutionary Model Monte-Carlo MOCAT Orbital carrying capacity Optimization Validation Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4927491","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":351717327,"identity":"8131282d-5224-4b1f-bc92-56488471f931","order_by":0,"name":"Giovanni Lavezzi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAwElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACdgjFw8/A2ACkmYnQAlXDI9nA2NhAkhYGgwNga4jQIu/M/Eziw586GeNrh9sfMFRYJzYQ0mJ4mM1McgYPG4/Z7USgw86kE6GlmcHYmEeCB6KFse0wMVrYPxv/MZDgMZ4N0vKPCC3yzDyGjxkSDHgMpEFaGojQYsDMU/iw50ACjwTQYTMSjqUbE7alvX3DgR9/6uz5Z6c/+PChxlqWsC0HkHkJhJSDbSFo6CgYBaNgFIwCACsMOwFcDGBUAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1990-4574","institution":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Giovanni","middleName":"","lastName":"Lavezzi","suffix":""},{"id":351717328,"identity":"c4d616ef-251c-499e-a181-8390cb0d1cdf","order_by":1,"name":"Daniel Jang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"MIT Lincoln Laboratory","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daniel","middleName":"","lastName":"Jang","suffix":""},{"id":351717329,"identity":"66534762-971d-4e33-a059-42d70fa85938","order_by":2,"name":"Richard Linares","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Richard","middleName":"","lastName":"Linares","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-08-17 02:45:28","currentVersionCode":2,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4927491/v2","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4927491/v2","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":80750080,"identity":"2b5028fa-2156-4e25-9c61-6189a0844740","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-16 16:12:38","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1176398,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"LavezziSSEMMCvalidpreprint.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4927491/v2_covered_f74c34b4-eb15-478a-a706-06516eb49a48.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eStable and Sustainable Orbital Capacity Solutions in Low Earth Orbit\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Source-Sink Evolutionary Model, Monte-Carlo, MOCAT, Orbital carrying capacity, Optimization, Validation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4927491/v2","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4927491/v2","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe significant increase in the population of satellites in Low Earth Orbit raises concerns about the orbital\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ecarrying capacity, essentially the ability of the Low Earth Orbit environment to sustain a certain number of\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003esatellites without unsustainable levels of risk due to space debris or collisions. More in-orbit collisions can\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003egenerate debris that further threatens operational satellites and human spaceflight missions. The open-source\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMIT Orbital Capacity Assessment Tool is adopted to optimize the number of satellites that fit in the Low\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEarth Orbit region under dynamical system equilibrium and sustainability constraints. The results show an\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eopposite trend between active satellites and debris for a sustainable centuries-long space environment: the\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003enumber of active satellites decreases with altitude, while the amount of debris increases. Higher altitudes\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eexhibit a greater sensitivity to the number of satellites they can accommodate. 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