Estimated future Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Waste-to-Energy Potential of Wet Waste in Urban India OUTLOOK (2030)

Estimated future Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Waste-to-Energy Potential of Wet Waste in Urban India OUTLOOK (2030) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Systematic Review Estimated future Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Waste-to-Energy Potential of Wet Waste in Urban India OUTLOOK (2030) Abhay Kumar Verma, Pushpendra Singh This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7346870/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The high rate of urbanization in India is a highlight of the 21st century development pathway of this country, and it poses a trilemma of economic growth, environmental sustainability, and people health. The paper gives a quantitative overlay of the municipal solid waste (MSW) scenario in urban India by 2030, its effect on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The demographic projections and the set metrics of waste generation are used in this analysis to estimate that by the year 2030, India would have around 547 million urban population, generating close to 110 million tonnes of MSW each year. The two waste management scenarios considered in the study are a Baseline scenario pathway that is continuous reliance on the unscientific landfills, and scenario 2 aligned with ‘SBM-U 2.0 (Swachh Bharat Mission Urban 2.0) Target' pathway which is coordinated with national goals for waste processing. The findings show that a transit into a successful SBM 2.0 model may reduce more than 41 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 ​e) emission per year as opposed to the Baseline scenario, largely by eliminating landfill methane (CH 4 ​) emissions. Moreover, the paradigm change opens a considerable domestic energy source. The analysis estimates a national urban capacity to generate about 2.06 million tonnes of Bio-Compressed Natural Gas (Bio-CNG) out of wet biodegradable waste. Targeted policy recommendations at the end of the paper are aimed at introducing source segregation, developing effective market mechanisms on the reclaimed resource, a tiered technology strategy and ensuring capacity gaps in the Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) to rebuild India into the strategic waste to address the rising waste problem into a strategic advantage of climate action and energy independence in India. Environmental Engineering Environmental Policy Environmental Economics Urbanization Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Greenhouse Gas Emissions Swachh Bharat Mission Urban 2.0 (SBM-U 2.0) Bio-Compressed Natural Gas (Bio-CNG) Climate Action Ask ChatGPT Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10 1. INTRODUCTION India is undergoing a deep and rapid process of urban transformation, a demographic change that is transforming the economic, social, and environmental geography of India. This reached a turning point in the 2011 Census of India, which showed the urban population grew by 91 million and the rural one by 90.5 million in the last ten years, indicating the first time since independence that the urban population had increased in absolute terms at a faster rate than the rural (Pradhan 2013 ). India's urban population grew from 377 million (31.16%) in 2011(International Institute for Population Sciences, n.d.) and is projected to reach 600 million (40%) by 2031 and 850 million (50%) by 2050(Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs 2016 ). This and usually poorly prepared urbanization brings extraordinary strain upon municipal infrastructure and services. One of the key considerations is the handling of the municipal solid waste (MSW). Rapid urbanization and rising consumption have exponentially increased waste generation, directly impacting India's climate commitments (Kumar and Samadder 2017 ). A significant source of Methane is unutilized waste, especially the biodegradable waste material that breaks down in uncontrolled dumpsites (a greenhouse gas (GHG) whose global warming potential is much greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ​) (so-called shorter timescales) (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, n.d.-a). As a result, waste management is no longer simply an issue of sanitation and the health of citizens but is now a critical element of the national climate action plan in India. India's municipal solid waste management faces critical challenges in transitioning from disposal-focused approaches to resource recovery systems. The urban centers in the country are already producing more than 160,000 tonnes per day (TPD) of solid waste, which is set to grow to 165 million tonnes a year by 2030 (Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister 2024 ). The existing management practice is in critical jeopardy despite the rather large policy efforts. Although the efficiency of waste collection has gained an upward trend through various initiatives such as the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), a significant amount of the as-yet-collected waste, estimated to be more than 70 per cent in some of the analysis, continues to be unscientifically disposed of in clogged landfills and open dump sites(Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister 2024 ). For instance, about 21% of MSW is processed in engineered sanitary landfills in India (Shao et al. 2023 ; Editorial Team 2024 ) . These are not contrived sanitary landfills, but can be poorly controlled dumps that present significant environmental and human health hazards, such as groundwater pollution, air pollution, or the transmission of disease. In terms of climate, they effectively act as huge anaerobic bioreactors that release enormous amounts of methane to the surrounding atmosphere in a direct contravention of India Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. At the same time, the nature of Indian MSW has a major opportunity. The waste stream is dominated by a very high organic, biodegradable content, usually between 40–60 per cent, and thus presents large, as yet under utilised potential sources of useful energy (Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs 2000 ). With appropriate separation and technology such as anaerobic digestion, the bio-waste fraction would be able to provide useful biofuels such as Bio-Compressed Natural Gas (Bio-CNG). Bio-CNG, which produced form anaerobic digestion of biodegradable waste, is a low emitting, scalable technology, which is especially well-matched with India due to its high proportion of organic waste. The main steps of the anaerobic digestion process are shown in Fig. 1 , which describes the process by which biodegradable urban MSW can be converted to biogas, which can be upgraded to Bio-CNG, and digestate, a useful soil amendment (FactSheet_Biogas_2017.09). It leads to a decrease of methane emissions produced due to diverting waste form open dumping and creates renewable energy and provides preservation of sustainability in farms. It provides additional electricity generation potential by the high-calorific, non-recyclable dry fraction, using Waste-to-Energy (WtE) technologies. This paper is concerned with this twofold task: measuring the environmental and climatic harm done by the current path and carrying out a systematic assessment of how an economic and energy potential, a paradigm shift towards a closed-loop economy, in which we turn waste into a resource can benefit us. 1.1Research Objectives The following are the specific aims: To predict the urban population of India in 2030 and, following this assessment, estimate the total volume and composition of MSW being generated every year in the urban territory. To create and generalize the GHG emissions of two different waste management plans (Ref Table 1 ) taking place in 2030: Table 1 Details of considered scenario w.r.t Waste Processing & Bio-CNG Selected Scenarios Description Scenario A Baseline scenario that considers a high dependency on landfilling that is sustained, 65% uncontrolled landfilling, 35% basic composting. (Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister 2024 ). Scenario B Aligned with SBM 2.0 Target meeting national targets of high levels of scientific waste recovery, 80% diversion from landfills through 50% anaerobic digestion, 30% improved composting, 20% engineered landfilling. In order to determine the national-scale of the energy recoverable portion of the projected 2030 urban MSW, that is, how much Bio-CNG (wet waste) can be produced. 2. METHODOLOGY The approach used in this review employs a systematic methodological structure and step-by-step methodology to quantify India's municipal solid waste (MSW) scenario for 2030. As depicted in Fig. 2Figure 2, it starts with urban population forecasting, MSW generation estimation, and composition analysis. Two management scenarios are then formulated Baseline (business as usual) and SBM 2.0-aligned (intervention-based. Every scenario is assessed based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and potential energy recovery. The information obtained leads to strategic policy proposals consistent with India's climate and waste management objectives. The paper is constructed based on a thorough synthesis of information contained in a broad range of official government reports as well as academic studies and publications by multilateral organizations. Demographic data underpinning are based on the Census of India 2011. (International Institute for Population Sciences, n.d.) Projected population growth and urbanization trends have been informed by projections found at the national policy think tank of India, NITI Aayog, Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA), and the World Bank. The information related to MSW generation rates, the physical and chemical composition of MSW, and existing management practices are mainly based on technical reports and surveys by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI), and the own statistical handbooks created by MoHUA (Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs 2000 ). These sources are used to derive essential parameters like the per capita waste generation rates in correlation with the size of the city and the average decomposition of waste material into biodegradable, recyclable, and inert categories. The analytical framework of GHG emissions is founded on the standards and emission factors given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely taking the Global Warming Potential (GWP) values of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)(GHG Management Institute, n.d.). The methodological approaches in comparing various waste management pathways are based on established models such as Waste Reduction Model (WARM) proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and other lifecycle assessment literature. Lastly, energy potential calculations use conversion factors and efficiency of technology estimates by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) in India, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and peer-reviewed technical literature on bio-methanation and thermal Waste-to-Energy processes. 2.1 Projection Modelling: 2.1.1 Urban Population (2030) India The Baseline projection is anchored to the 2011 Census of 377.1 million urban population. For the purpose of calculation in this paper the report of (Ministry of Health and Family Welfare 2019 ) is taken. The Urban population taken here is 546,838,000 for year 2030. 2.1.2 Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Generation (2030) According to the synthesis of studies of the mid-2010s for a conservative baseline of 0.45 kg/capita/day (Sharma and Sitorus 2019 ), adding an annual growth of 1.3% which is considered by the government analysis to capture the increasing incomes and consumption (Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs 2000 ), the rate that is expected approximately in 2030 is the following: 0.55 kg capita 2030/day. Total daily MSW is calculated as : MSW(TPD)​=Urban Population x Per Capita Generation rate MSW(TPD)​=546,838,000 ×0.55 = 300760.9 TPD It is approximated that total annual MSW generation is about 110 million tonnes. 2.2.3 Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Composition (2030) The estimated annual MSW volume is broken down into major fractions as shown by extensive characterization of Indian waste by CPCB and NEERI (Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs 2000 ). The composition adopted in this study for 2030 are consistent, surveys and official audits persistently indicate that Indian municipal waste streams continue to be controlled by a large share of biodegradable and organic fractions, gradually but consistently followed by an increase in plastics and dry recyclables because of urbanization and lifestyle changes. The values are referenced with the 60 cities data (Central Pollution Control Board 2015 ). As a result, the figures applied to scenario analysis not only account for the empirical data collected over decades but also the predicted future urbanization and waste generation trends in India, so they are safe to use to make projections up to 2030. Wet Biodegradable: 52% Dry Recyclable Spillage: 18% Dry Non-Recyclable (High-Calorific) Waste: 15% Inert & Other Waste: 15% 2.3 GHG Emission Calculation These emissions are measured as there are tonnes of CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 e) and these are computed 100 years-Global Warming Potentials (GWP100) per IPCC AR6. The GWP of methane is conventionally distinguished critically on the basis of origin as proposed by GHG Protocol and IPCC: CH 4 (biogenic): GWP = 27.0. This number is used on methane emissions of the oxidation of biogenic material (e.g. food and yard) in landfills, composting and anaerobic digestion. It is a measure of the warming effect of the methane molecule as such without any consideration of the ultimate conversion of methane into CO 2 that was already present as a part of the natural carbon cycle. (GHG Protocol 2024 ) N 2 O: GWP = 273. This is implemented on the emission of nitrous oxide which is mainly as a result of the composting process.(GHG Protocol 2024 ) 2.4 Bio-CNG Potential The calculation of the energy potential of the biochemical pathway is made according to the amount of the total estimated volume of wet biodegradable waste. Conversion factors that are used are stated as follows: Biogas Yield: It is assumed to be a conservative biogas yield of 90 Normal cubic meters (Nm3) of raw biogas to make one tonne of wet MSW feedstock, based on specific Indian and international evidence. (Singh and others 2023) Methane Content: The raw biogas is assumed to have an average content of 55–60% methane.(Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, n.d.) Bio-CNG Conversion: The raw biogas is then converted as Bio-CNG or Compressed Biogas/CBG which is purified to more than 92 percent of methane content. The last conversion element is 0.4 kg of Bio-CNG formation against 1 Nm3 of raw biogas processed. (Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, n.d.) In Fig. 3 , the pathways of the wet and dry waste treatment are mapped, and it is possible to observe how a source-segregated stream may result in bio-energy, compost, or recyclables. This is in tandem with the estimates of composition made earlier in the paper and directly feeds into the energy recovery, and emission modelling later in the paper. The flow diagram of urban MSW is significant in order to make the proposed model of waste recovery operational. 3. RESULT AND DISCUSSIONS 3.1 India's Urban Population in 2030: By 2030 the projected population of India will reach by approximately 547 million, an increase of over 170 million from the 2011 (Ministry of Health and Family Welfare 2019). India is adding the equivalent of the entire Brazilian population in cities in less than twenty years. The main contributor to the rising need in the urban infrastructure and services is this surge in population, MSW management being one of the most burning issues. The urban portion of the aggregate population is expected to reach around 39-40 percent, assuring the national change to the mainly rural to a gradually more urban-based society (H. S. Puri 2020). 3.2 Projected Urban MSW generation : An urban population which tends to grow and an associated growth in the level of consumption per capita translates to an intensive rise in the amount of waste generated. Based on projected urban population, 546.8 million and the average per capita generation rate of 0.55 kg/day, this study projects that in 2030, an estimated 300,760 tonnes of the MSW will produce each day (TPD). This translates to approximately 110 million tonnes of MSW annually. It is almost twice the estimated 62 million tonnes produced every year in the middle of the 2010s (International Trade Administration, n.d.). It is not difficult to see the enormity of the task ahead of Urban Local Bodies (ULBs), which will have to plan, collect, transport and scientifically treat this huge mountain of refuse. Urban population increase exponentially as well as per capita generation of waste with a dramatically increasing total quantity of MSW to be handled by Indian cities. Figure 4 shows the trend projection in terms of population and generation of MSW until 2030 (target year) in important benchmark years namely; 2011 (base year), 2024 (current year), and 2030 (target year of the study). It depicts the high level of overlap between urbanization and rising MSW production indicating how important it is to have realizable waste management infrastructure in Indian cities. 3.3 Projected Composition of Urban Waste Stream 2030 Knowing the composition of this future waste stream is essential to developing effective strategies to manage it and realise its resource potentials. The anticipated 110 million tonnes of a year urban MSW is broken into four main categories, as seen in Figure 5. It is a necessary breakdown required in the modelling of both the environmental and energy recovery consequence of the variances of the waste management pathways (also reflected in Figure 3). Wet Biodegradable Waste: This continues to be the single largest component estimated at 57.2 million tonnes per annum (52 per cent). This food waste, vegetable market garbage, and yard trimming fraction make up the bulk of the feedstock of biological treatment methods such as composting and anaerobic digestion. Dry Recyclable Waste: This part, containing products with well-established recycling, such as PET bottles, cardboard, and metals, is expected to make up 19.8 million tonnes of a year (18%). Dry Non-Recyclable (High-Calorific) Waste: This is the difficult to process but energy-heavy material composed of multi-layer plastics, textiles, rubber, and other combustibles and is anticipated to be 16.5 million tonnes annually (15%). This is the intended feedstock of thermal Waste-to-Energy technologies. Inert & Other Waste: Composed of silt, stones, construction and wiping down (C&D) debris and other non-combustible, non-biodegradable wastes, this fraction is expected to average 16.5 million tonnes a year (15%). The discussion of such projections shows that there is an essential aspect that one cannot ignore regarding the challenge; the increment is not only about quantity, but it is also a matter of increment in complexity. Although the sheer amount of the wet organic waste will be huge, resulting in a huge potential feedstock to bio-energy, the sheer amount of the complex dry waste plastics, multi-layered packaging, and e-waste is expected to increase by far disproportionately. It is a direct result of the fact that the Indian economy is projected to double by 2030, which will be reflected in the level of per capita income and consumerist living (Down to Earth 2016). As incomes rise, so does the consumption patterns towards more packaged and processed goods that have fundamentally changed the garbage we put in our household waste bins (Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister 2024). This two-fold growth exerts concomitant and different pressures on waste management infrastructure. It requires a system capable of processing an overwhelming organic flow and a complicated and heterogeneous dry flow in bulk. A policy or infrastructure plan based on a single stream cost like favouring just composting of wet waste or just victual recovery of dry waste will automatically be inadequate up to the 2030 challenge. This fact requires the unified approach merging source segregation, material recovery facilities (MRFs), biological plants (composting and anaerobic digestion), and thermo-processing plants (WtE) into a single system. 3.4 Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios (2030) The management route adopted to handle the estimated 110 million tonnes of urban MSW will result in radically different impacts on the national GHG emission picture of India. This section forecasts and compares two possible cases to the year 2030. Table 2 summarizes the emission factors of the various management pathways upon which this analysis is based. Table 2 Emission factors applied in scenario-based calcs of GHG emissions on various biodegradable waste management proceedings. Management Pathway Primary GHG Emitted GWP₁₀₀ (IPCC AR6) Emission Factor (kg CO 2 e/tonne) Key Assumptions/Source Unmanaged Landfill CH 4 27.0 ~600 Based on methane potential of mixed organic waste decomposition Composting (Managed) N 2 O, fugitive CH 4 273, 27.0 ~50 Assumes well-aerated piles but accounts for typical process emissions Anaerobic Digestion Fugitive CH 4 27 ~10 Assumes >95% biogas capture efficiency for energy use Note: Assumed values (kg CO 2 e /tonne of waste treated), references and specifications of each model are summarized in the table Emission factors follow IPCC guidelines adapted for Indian waste conditions, ranging from 600 kg CO₂e/tonne for uncontrolled landfills to 10 kg CO₂e/tonne for anaerobic digestion with >95% methane capture. (Metz and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2005). (Nordahl et al. 2023) Figure 6 compares GHG emissions between the two scenarios, and demonstrate that Scenario A generates 44.83 million tonnes CO₂e annually, whereas Scenario B significantly reduces emissions to 3.92 million tonnes CO₂e; which displays a radically-reduced emission of 40.91 million tonnes of CO₂e. 3.5 SCENARIO A: RESULTS This situation is a scenario that despite good plans on policies, the scenario has remained at the ground level very slow and uncoordinated due to the current state of affairs in most parts of the country. Scenario A, as outlined in Table 1, presupposes continued high dependency on unscientific landfilling (65%) and basic composting (35%). In this case: Landfilled waste: 110 million tonnes/year x 0.65= 71.5 million tonnes/year. Processed Waste: 110 million tonnes/year x 0.35= 38.5 million tonnes/year. The anaerobic biodegradation of this huge organic component of the 71.5 million tonnes of mixed waste disposed of in the landfills is the main source of GHG emissions. Land Warning Emissions: 71.5 M tonnes x 600kg CO 2 e /tonne = 42,900,000 tonnes CO 2 e. Processing emissions (on the assumption that it is mostly low-efficiency composting): 38.5 M tonnes× 50 kg CO 2 e/tonne = 1,925,000 tonnes CO 2 e. The overall estimated annual GHG activity in Baseline scenario is 44.825 million tonnes of CO 2 e. 3.6 SBM 2.0 Target: Scenario B (An Integrated processing pathway) This situation is the imitation of the achievement of the mission established in Swachh Bharat Mission 2.0 that proposes to transform all cities into the Garbage Free institutions of 2026(Asian Development Bank 2022). Scenario B, aligned with the SBM 2.0 Target Table 1, envisions a minimum of 80% of collected waste undergoing scientific processing, with a strong focus on source segregation and resource recovery.(Press Information Bureau 2021). Waste Processed: 110 million tonnes/year * 0.80=88 million tonnes/year. Waste Landfilled (Residuals): 110 million tonnes/year*0.20=22 million tonnes/year. The 88 million tonnes of processed wastes comes under a combination of technologies which is suitable to each fraction. This approach process the 57.2 million tonnes of wet biodegradable waste is shifted to the biological treatment completely (including anaerobic digestion and composting), whereas the dry waste is directed to recycling and Waste-to-Energy plants. In the 22 million tonnes that are disposed to land, the biggest proportion of the waste is dealt with in landfills and is composed of inert materials and rejects of low organic content. Landfilling (Inerts): 22 M tonnes 100 kg CO 2 e/tonne=2,200,000 tonnes CO 2 e. Anaerobic Digestion (50 per cent of wet waste emits 10 kg CO 2 e/ tonne): 28.6 M tonnes x 10 kg CO 2 e/ tonne=286,000 tonnes CO 2 e. Composting emissions (half of the wet waste, 28.6 M tonnes): 28.6 M tonnes 50 kg CO 2 e / tonne = 1,430,000 tonnes CO 2 e. On an annual basis, the total estimated GHG footprint under SBM 2.0 Target scenario is about 3.92 million tonnes of CO 2 e. 3.7 Comparison of Analysis and Mitigation Potential As illustrated in Figure 7, the implementation of an integrated waste processing system aligned with SBM 2.0 would reduce annual urban MSW GHG emissions to 3.92 MMT CO2e, a significant reduction compared to the 44.825 MMT CO2e under the Baseline scenario. This is a mitigation potential of 40.90 million tonnes/year of CO 2 e. This discovery makes better solid waste management as one of the most excellent and convenient sub-national oppositions to address the problem of climate change in India. It also emphasizes that the policy decisions being taken as to the urban sanitation infrastructure in the next few years will define the implications directly and significantly on the capacity of the country fulfilling international climate obligations. The phenomenon of the "processing paradox" is also an important nuance in the analysis, which can easily be expressed in the context of policy. Although any processing is better than landfilling, the type of processing technology selected has its own unique GHG signature. Composting, though huge improvement, is an aerobic process which turns organic carbon mainly to CO 2 . When not optimally aerated, compost heaps may become anaerobic and become fugitive methane sources (Deesing 2021). Moreover, composting nitrogen-rich fractions may result in the emission of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) which has a GWP 100 of 273, making it another considerable contributor to the climate impact of the overall process (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, n.d.-b). Conversely, anaerobic digestion (AD) is the method of designed anaerobic operation in a contained, controlled environment. It specifically captures the resulting methane-rich biogas to produce energy (Davidson Environmental, n.d.). This trapping and use process limits the emission of methane, and it is what makes AD a better technology regarding pure GHG mitigation. The implication is that policy and financial incentives need to be graduated not only to incentivize a transition to stop land filling and start processing, but to favorably promote the implementation of AD and biogas capture technologies where technically and economically doable. 3.8 Energy Recovery Potential: Biochemical Pathway (National Bio-CNG Potential) The 57.2 million tonnes of wet biodegradable waste produced annually is the biggest share of the waste stream; this is a colossal source of anaerobic digestion feedstock. Through modern bio-methanation facilities this organic resource can be converted into large amounts of Bio-CNG (also called Compressed Biogas or CBG), a renewable energy with identical chemical composition to regular natural gas(International Energy Agency 2020). As shown in Figure 1, the anaerobic digestion process converts organic waste into valuable biogas and digestate, enabling energy recovery and reducing GHG emissions. Upon an analysis applying conversion factors provided in the methodology, the analysis indicates that nationally, there is potential to generate nearly 2.06 million tonnes of Bio-CNG annually just using urban MSW. Calculation: Feedstock: Wet waste 57.2 million tonnes Biogas production: 57.2 M tonnes x 90 Nm3/ tonne= 5,148 million Nm3 biogas (Singh and others 2023) Bio-CNG Production: 5,148 M Nm3 0.4 kg/ Nm3 2,059 million kg = 2.06 million tonnes (Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, n.d.) The amount of urban waste that can be converted to 2.06 million tonnes of potential production can be a pillar towards the achievement of these mandates and making India more self-reliant in energy and less dependent on imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). India's current Bio-CNG infrastructure must expand significantly to realize the estimated 2.06 MTPA potential . Figure 8 illustrates Bio-CNG plant ecosystem of India, including regional distribution, operational capacity, and the development pipeline (Ramboll, n.d.). The second significant energy avenue is the use of the non-recyclable dry waste which has high-calorific value (HCV) of 16.5 million tonnes per annum. This part contains materials such as lower graded plastics, textiles and rubber that do not have strong recycling markets and they can serve as fuel in the new WtE plants to create electricity. This offers a predictable, uninterrupted supply of renewable energy which could be used in conjunction with the variability of solar and wind power. This resource is way beyond the present installed capacity of the plants of Waste-to-Energy in India, implying that there is immense potential to scale(Swachh Bharat Mission Urban, n.d.). Converting waste to energy products (Bio-CNG, electricity) can transform SWM from a municipal cost (Rs. 500-1500/tonne) into a revenue source as the cost of collection and transport top-ups flowers, with minimal resources left to finance scintific processing (Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs 2000). This forms a vicious cycle of improper services delivery and under funding. Quite fundamentally this dynamic can be changed by converting the waste into marketable energy products - Bio-CNG and electricity. The production of Bio-CNG will directly replace imported LNG, contributing to India's energy security and conserving foreign exchange (ET Edge Insights, n.d.). Such financial model may create a sustainable system of waste processing as the money collected during the sale of this energy may be used in combination with supportive policies, such as blending mandates, and through feasible Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). This will be a revenue source of which the capital and operational costs of the advanced processing facilities can be covered, whereby altering SWM into a utility service that is self-sufficient and perhaps profitable itself. It is through this financial feasibility that it is, therefore, possible to break this cycle of neglect and meet the huge infrastructure investment needed to handle the 2030 waste problem in India. 4. DISCUSSION 4.1 The Scale of the Challenge and the Opportunity The results of such analysis give a vivid portrayal of the intersections that urban India is reaching. The annual urban MSW of 100-plus million tonnes in the year 2030 is an enormous management challenge. Scenario A emissions of 45 MMT CO₂e annually represent the extreme environmental impact of the lack of action. Such a route would not only worsen human health emergencies and land corruption but also deal a serious blow to the Indian climate targets. Conversely, the integrated processing model of SBM 2.0 presents a significant opportunity, potentially mitigating over 41 MMT CO₂e annually by nearly decarbonizing the waste industry. Further, this can unlock a domestic energy source, generating an estimated 2.06 million tonnes of Bio-CNG annually. This shifts the equation completely: the cost of a systematic redesign of waste to a circular economy is not an environmental investment but one in securing our climate, energy security, and circular economies. The price of doing nothing, in the form of environmental degradation and consequent health effects, and squandered wealth, is much higher than is the price of this needed change. 4.2 Navigating the Gap: Insights to Impact A key barrier to leveraging this opportunity is the huge gulf between policy ambition and on-the-ground implementation: the "implementation chasm." Although national policies such as SBM 2.0 and the visions articulated by Niti Aayog have a progressive and comprehensive nature (Press Information Bureau 2021), reports from independent bodies such as the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) describe much more starkly, the reality faced by many ULBs. CAG emphasized ongoing deficiencies in planning, baseline studies, hazardous waste and the management of C&D waste, and open dumping (Comptroller and Auditor General of India 2024). This gap is compounded through a data dichotomy. While the SBM-Urban official dashboard alludes to > 80% waste processing nationally as of 2024 (Swachh Bharat Mission Urban, n.d.), independent analyses and media reports suggest the effective scientific processing rate is even lower than 50% and even lower than respectable source segregation (Earth5R, n.d.). The wide discrepancy in estimates seems to arise from different and often loose definitions of 'processing', and too much dependence on data self-reported by ULBs. The absence of credible, standardized data limits monitoring and tracking and does not allow impact assessment to improve policy, nor any reasonable course correction. A SWOT framework is employed in order to outline the transformation opportunity of the solid waste sector under SBM 2.0 in a systematic manner. Figure 9 is a synthesis of the strategic strengths, underlying systemic weaknesses, upcoming opportunities, and new threats at the urban MSW governance and valorisation of energy in India. This diagram aids the argument that although the policy and technical backbone is in place, the achievement is conditional on the available implementation capacities, transparency of data, and most successful implementation of the mixes through the relationships between the government and private sectors. For the private sector to manage and de-risk investment, and to have an established economic driver for processing plants, the government needs to: Enhance Blending Mandates: Strictly enforce a 5% CBG blending mandate in CGD and transport, and design and implement a transparent trading framework for CBG certificates to ensure offtake.(International Energy Agency 2023) Maintain Feasible Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs): State electricity regulatory commissions need to establish preferential tariffs, in addition to 'must-run' status, for Waste-to-Energy power plants to assist them in securing revenue flows. Create Markets for Compost: Implement a uniform national policy for promoting and marketing city compost, perhaps in conjunction with fertilizer subsidy programs, or with a compulsory procurement requirement for the horticulture departments of government, to deal with the large quantities of digested and compost co-product (Down to Earth 2024). A one size fits all technological answer is fundamentally unfair to the diversity of urban scales that exist in India. Policy and funding must promote tiered solutions. India is heterogeneous in cities sizes, economic capacities, and waste patterns, and hence a tier-based implementation plan is essential. Figure 10, suggests a differentiated model in which high-tech centralized systems are the solution of metropolis cities, and localized bio-CNG or composting is the solution to small towns. This provides not only scalability and fit to context, but is underpinned by a level of policy, funding and technical assistance. Tier 1 (Mega-Cities and Metros): Recommended to focus implementation around integrated hubs with large scale centralized Anaerobic Digestion/Bio-CNG facilities for massive organic load, alongside modern Waste to Energy processing those residual non-recyclable, high calorific fraction. Tier 2 (Medium sized cities): Should implement centralized compost plants and small bio-methanation plants. Tier 3 (Small towns and peri-urban areas): Should require decentralized compost and bio-methanation units to limit transport cost to get to and create local resource loop for agriculture. ULBs are the implementers of these waste management systems but often find themselves to be the weakest link in the chain because of their low financial and technical capacity(Comptroller and Auditor General of India 2024). To empower ULBs, what the central and State governments must do is: Provide Viability Gap Funding: Provide this funding so that those capital intensive projects Waste-to-Energy and Bio-CNG are one commercially interesting for private investments under Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) model. Develop Standard and Uniformized PPP frameworks: Develop template contracts and risk sharing approaches and tools just related to bidding and delivery of waste processing right from the beginning, so that this is not an issue for ULBs. Develop Technical Assistance Programmes: develop regional centres of excellence or deploy technical assistance units to assist ULBs with project planning, DPR preparation and contract administration. CONCLUSION India's urbanization path is going to present one of the biggest challenges and opportunities in development within the decade ahead. By 2030, Indian cities will face the challenge of managing approximately 110 million tonnes of municipal solid waste. The pathway that India chooses to manage this waste will have serious implications for the environment, public health, energy security, and India's commitments toward climate action. Continuing under the baseline scenario of unscientific dumping would exacerbate environmental degradation, leading to annual greenhouse gas emissions exceeding 45 million tonnes of CO2e from the waste sector alone. There will be increased polluted land and water, increased public health risk, with the arrival of more 'disasters', not to mention inability to meet core national and international climate commitments. On the other hand, there is an achievable and measurable way forward. The strategic management of waste presents India with an opportunity to capitalize on the principles of circular economies, and the implementation of an integrated waste management strategy, such as the strategy imagined under the Swachh Bharat Mission 2.0. This study shows that such a transformative change could potentially avoid more than 41 million tonnes of CO 2 e each year, and contribute to India's Climate Action Plan. Beyond environmental benefits, this unlocks a powerful domestic energy resource, with the potential to generate approximately 2.06 million tonnes of clean-burning Bio-CNG annually. Realizing this potential depends on overcoming the deeply entrenched implementation challenges that have historically limited the sector. It will require effort to enforce source segregation, create a market for recovered materials, utilise targeted financial and technical support for urban local bodies, and credible and transparent data. The evidence is abundantly clear: investing in modern and scientifically sound waste management is not an unessential environmental expenditure. It is a strategic investment for India's energy sovereignty, climate-resilience and sustainable health and economic prosperity for its rapidly growing future urban centre. Declarations Ethics approval and consent to participate Not applicable Authors ORCID iDs Abhay Kumar Verma 0000-0001-7426-8083 (Corresponding author) Pushpendra Singh: 0009-0007-0103-368X Availability of data and material The collected and analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Competing interests The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose. Funding Not applicable. Preprint Declaration Paper is intended to upload on pre-print server Author’s Contributions Abhay Kumar Verma: Conceptualisation, analysis, final manuscript editing and supervision. Pushpendra Singh: Drafting; Analysis; Due Diligence All authors read and approved the final manuscript. References Asian Development Bank. 2022. “56286-001: Swachh Bharat Mission 2.0–Comprehensive Municipal Waste Management in Indian Cities Program.” https://www.adb.org/projects/56286-001/main. Central Pollution Control Board. 2015. Assessment and Characterisation of Plastic Waste Generation in 60 Major Cities . Central Pollution Control Board. https://cpcb.nic.in/displaypdf.php?id=cGxhc3RpY3dhc3RlL1BXXzYwX2NpdGllc19yZXBvcnQtSmFuLTIwMTUucGRm. Comptroller and Auditor General of India. 2024. Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India on Solid Waste Management in Urban Local Bodies for the Year Ended 31 March 2022 . Comptroller and Auditor General of India. https://cag.gov.in/webroot/uploads/download_audit_report/2024/Report-No.-4-of-2024_PA-on-SWM-GoUK_English-067b719e9423de6.20500998.pdf. Davidson Environmental. n.d. “Composting vs. Anaerobic Digestion.” https://davidsonenvironmental.ca/composting-vs-anaerobic-digestion/. Deesing, Brittany. 2021. “Comparing Greenhouse Gases from Composting and Landfilling.” National Conference on Undergraduate Research . https://libjournals.unca.edu/ncur/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/1698Deesing-Brittany-FINAL.pdf. Down to Earth. 2016. “Waste Generation in India.” https://cdn.downtoearth.org.in/library/0.89650700_1463994246_sample-pages.pdf. Down to Earth. 2024. “Managing Quality and Utilisation of Compost Is Long Standing Challenge in Handling Biodegradable Waste.” January. https://www.downtoearth.org.in/waste/managing-quality-and-utilisation-of-compost-is-long-standing-challenge-in-handling-biodegradable-waste-94623. Earth5R. n.d. “Waste Management in India: Challenges, Innovations, and Earth5R Case Studies.” https://earth5r.org/waste-management-india-solutions/. Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. 2024. Challenges of Solid Waste Management in Urban India . Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. https://eacpm.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Solid_Waste_management_Updated.pdf. Editorial Team. 2024. Trash Troubles . Millennium Post. March. https://www.millenniumpost.in/opinion/trash-troubles-567322. ET Edge Insights. n.d. “The Potential of Biogas to Reduce India’s Dependency on Fossil Fuels and Lower Energy Costs.” https://etedge-insights.com/industry/energy/the-potential-of-biogas-to-reduce-indias-dependency-on-fossil-fuels-and-lower-energy-costs/. “FactSheet_Biogas_2017.09.” n.d. International institute for population science. GHG Management Institute. n.d. “IPCC AR6 Methane GWP Tables.” https://ghginstitute.org/ipcc-ar6-methane-gwp-tables/. GHG Protocol. 2024. “IPCC Global Warming Potential Values.” https://ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/2024-08/Global-Warming-Potential-Values%20%28August%202024%29.pdf. H. S. Puri. 2020. “40% of Indian Population Will Live in Urban Centres by 2030.” August. https://www.livemint.com/news/india/40-of-indian-population-will-live-in-urban-centres-by-2030-hardeep-singh-puri-11597743030787.html. International Energy Agency. 2020. “An Introduction to Biogas and Biomethane.” In Outlook for Biogas and Biomethane: Prospects for Organic Growth . https://www.iea.org/reports/outlook-for-biogas-and-biomethane-prospects-for-organic-growth/an-introduction-to-biogas-and-biomethane. International Energy Agency. 2023. “Unlocking India’s Bioenergy Potential.” https://www.iea.org/commentaries/unlocking-indias-bioenergy-potential. International Institute for Population Sciences. n.d. Urbanization in India: Trend, Pattern . IIPS Working Paper No. 17. International Institute for Population Sciences. https://www.iipsindia.ac.in/sites/default/files/IIPS_Working_Paper_No_17.pdf. International Trade Administration. n.d. “India Solid Waste Management.” https://www.trade.gov/market-intelligence/india-solid-waste-management. Kumar, A., and S. R. Samadder. 2017. “Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Waste Management in India.” Royal Society Open Science 4 (8): 160764. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.160764. Metz, Bert and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds. 2005. IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage: Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary . Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2019. Population Projection Report 2011-2036 . Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. https://mohfw.gov.in/sites/default/files/Population%20Projection%20Report%202011-2036%20-%20upload_compressed_0.pdf. Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs. 2000. “Guidelines.” May. https://mohua.gov.in/upload/uploadfiles/files/93.pdf. Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs. 2016. Handbook of Urban Statistics . Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs. https://mohua.gov.in/pdf/5853c4c9864675832b25ba492dhandbook%20of%20urban%20statistics.pdf. Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. n.d. “Waste to Energy Overview.” https://mnre.gov.in/en/waste-to-energy-overview/. Nordahl, Sarah L., Chelsea V. Preble, Thomas W. Kirchstetter, and Corinne D. Scown. 2023. “Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions from Composting.” Environmental Science & Technology 57 (6): 2235–47. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c05846. Pradhan, Kanhu Charan. 2013. Unacknowledged Urbanisation . no. 36. Press Information Bureau. 2021. “NITI Aayog CSE and Release ‘Waste-Wise Cities’ – Compendium of Best Practices in Municipal Solid Waste Management.” December. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1778734. Ramboll. n.d. Empowering India’s Clean Energy Journey with Biogas . https://www.ramboll.com/en-apac/insights/decarbonise-for-net-zero/empowering-india-s-clean-energy-journey-with-biogas. Shao, Yu, Fengyi Yao, Jia Liu, Tingchao Yu, and Shipeng Chu. 2023. “Global Energy and Leakage Optimization in Water Distribution Systems from Water Treatment Plants to Customer Taps.” Resources, Conservation and Recycling 194 (July): 107003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.107003. Sharma, A., and F. Sitorus. 2019. “Overview of Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Composition, and Management in India.” Singh, P. and others. 2023. “India’s Biomethane Generation Potential from Wastes and the Corresponding Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Possibilities under Three End Use Scenarios.” Sustainable Energy & Fuels 7 (10): 2419–37. https://doi.org/10.1039/D2SE01028C. Swachh Bharat Mission Urban. n.d. “SBM Urban 2.0.” https://sbmurban.org/. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. n.d.-a. “Basic Information about Landfill Gas.” https://www.epa.gov/lmop/basic-information-about-landfill-gas. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. n.d.-b. “Understanding Global Warming Potentials.” https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding-global-warming-potentials. Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7346870","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Systematic Review","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":498822179,"identity":"fdab6fe5-8d14-4fc6-87a0-8f56f9eb102b","order_by":0,"name":"Abhay Kumar 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waste.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7346870/v1/a86164df625475855523e815.jpg"},{"id":88900791,"identity":"e571fa71-29fc-4926-b4c6-5268bc6de661","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-12 13:41:27","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":68159,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSequential approach followed in the research to estimate urban MSW generation, compare GHG emissions from two waste management scenarios (Baseline vs. SBM 2.0-aligned), and analyze energy recovery potential to inform policy.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7346870/v1/fcd586f25e4ae0e12019c480.jpg"},{"id":88900782,"identity":"52045eea-7ed2-4f88-a130-81242d920d80","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-12 13:41:27","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":84866,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eIndian municipal solid waste source-segregated flow and treatment routes.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7346870/v1/00a5ea8ea2ef0391b1826dba.jpg"},{"id":88901572,"identity":"5085338b-bea3-427b-b4aa-2226794d68ae","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-12 13:49:27","extension":"jpg","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":55995,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe trends of total population, urban population and the projected municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in India based on 2011, 2024 and 2030.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7346870/v1/ef78b123fd6f85b8bc305e35.jpg"},{"id":88901570,"identity":"6e70d2cd-da7c-4437-b73d-5a0eb5dde732","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-12 13:49:27","extension":"jpg","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":51068,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eProjected composition of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated in urban India\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"5.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7346870/v1/21b4c6c0cc6cfeb3afe3b270.jpg"},{"id":88900793,"identity":"4bf87118-f792-4898-bf54-2693d3f62b62","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-12 13:41:27","extension":"jpg","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":86934,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eComparative GHG Emissions under Scenario A (Baseline) and Scenario B (SBM 2.0-aligned) for Projected 2030 Urban MSW in India.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"6.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7346870/v1/76cf1f75512db09e111ad9d5.jpg"},{"id":88900783,"identity":"541ccdf6-d602-4ebb-be07-189c5ccf6afd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-12 13:41:27","extension":"jpg","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":32311,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eComparative Annual GHG Emissions for Projected 2030 Urban MSW under Two Waste Management Scenarios.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"7.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7346870/v1/433ced1e9e1e9a41e492709d.jpg"},{"id":88903245,"identity":"2dfdf795-ff2e-486c-b299-f25d3b21e8ef","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-12 14:05:27","extension":"jpg","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":65017,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eDistribution and status of CBG/Bio-CNG plants in India..\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"8.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7346870/v1/d3dff4fb235ae0186e5683fc.jpg"},{"id":88902866,"identity":"0d0c8b88-2279-44d6-9d74-36ca94742074","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-12 13:58:27","extension":"jpg","order_by":9,"title":"Figure 9","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":169945,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSWOT analysis of India’s municipal solid waste sector under SBM 2.0 framework.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"9.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7346870/v1/5091d215a83605cd41d9401c.jpg"},{"id":88900785,"identity":"a6353def-2e13-4bf4-ab24-067ed4dcbc16","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-12 13:41:27","extension":"jpg","order_by":10,"title":"Figure 10","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":75297,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTiered solid waste treatment strategy for Indian cities.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"10.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7346870/v1/70a647f3250de920ad2cf9e5.jpg"},{"id":88904345,"identity":"594f43ec-4222-4f1a-b3c1-f1c625217e4a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-12 14:13:28","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1712713,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7346870/v1/00c81efd-e052-467b-b857-b4b78cf082a1.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEstimated future Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Waste-to-Energy Potential of Wet Waste in Urban India OUTLOOK (2030)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[{"header":"1. INTRODUCTION","content":"\u003cp\u003eIndia is undergoing a deep and rapid process of urban transformation, a demographic change that is transforming the economic, social, and environmental geography of India. This reached a turning point in the 2011 Census of India, which showed the urban population grew by 91\u0026nbsp;million and the rural one by 90.5\u0026nbsp;million in the last ten years, indicating the first time since independence that the urban population had increased in absolute terms at a faster rate than the rural (Pradhan \u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). India's urban population grew from 377\u0026nbsp;million (31.16%) in 2011(International Institute for Population Sciences, n.d.) and is projected to reach 600\u0026nbsp;million (40%) by 2031 and 850\u0026nbsp;million (50%) by 2050(Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs \u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis and usually poorly prepared urbanization brings extraordinary strain upon municipal infrastructure and services. One of the key considerations is the handling of the municipal solid waste (MSW). Rapid urbanization and rising consumption have exponentially increased waste generation, directly impacting India's climate commitments (Kumar and Samadder \u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). A significant source of Methane is unutilized waste, especially the biodegradable waste material that breaks down in uncontrolled dumpsites (a greenhouse gas (GHG) whose global warming potential is much greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e​) (so-called shorter timescales) (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, n.d.-a). As a result, waste management is no longer simply an issue of sanitation and the health of citizens but is now a critical element of the national climate action plan in India.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIndia's municipal solid waste management faces critical challenges in transitioning from disposal-focused approaches to resource recovery systems. The urban centers in the country are already producing more than 160,000 tonnes per day (TPD) of solid waste, which is set to grow to 165\u0026nbsp;million tonnes a year by 2030 (Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). The existing management practice is in critical jeopardy despite the rather large policy efforts. Although the efficiency of waste collection has gained an upward trend through various initiatives such as the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), a significant amount of the as-yet-collected waste, estimated to be more than 70 per cent in some of the analysis, continues to be unscientifically disposed of in clogged landfills and open dump sites(Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). For instance, about \u003cb\u003e21%\u003c/b\u003e of MSW is processed in engineered sanitary landfills in India (Shao et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e; Editorial Team \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e) .\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThese are not contrived sanitary landfills, but can be poorly controlled dumps that present significant environmental and human health hazards, such as groundwater pollution, air pollution, or the transmission of disease. In terms of climate, they effectively act as huge anaerobic bioreactors that release enormous amounts of methane to the surrounding atmosphere in a direct contravention of India Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAt the same time, the nature of Indian MSW has a major opportunity. The waste stream is dominated by a very high organic, biodegradable content, usually between 40\u0026ndash;60 per cent, and thus presents large, as yet under utilised potential sources of useful energy (Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2000\u003c/span\u003e). With appropriate separation and technology such as anaerobic digestion, the bio-waste fraction would be able to provide useful biofuels such as Bio-Compressed Natural Gas (Bio-CNG). Bio-CNG, which produced form anaerobic digestion of biodegradable waste, is a low emitting, scalable technology, which is especially well-matched with India due to its high proportion of organic waste. The main steps of the anaerobic digestion process are shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e, which describes the process by which biodegradable urban MSW can be converted to biogas, which can be upgraded to Bio-CNG, and digestate, a useful soil amendment (FactSheet_Biogas_2017.09). It leads to a decrease of methane emissions produced due to diverting waste form open dumping and creates renewable energy and provides preservation of sustainability in farms.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIt provides additional electricity generation potential by the high-calorific, non-recyclable dry fraction, using Waste-to-Energy (WtE) technologies. This paper is concerned with this twofold task: measuring the environmental and climatic harm done by the current path and carrying out a systematic assessment of how an economic and energy potential, a paradigm shift towards a closed-loop economy, in which we turn waste into a resource can benefit us.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec2\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e1.1Research Objectives\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe following are the specific aims: To predict the urban population of India in 2030 and, following this assessment, estimate the total volume and composition of MSW being generated every year in the urban territory.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTo create and generalize the GHG emissions of two different waste management plans (Ref Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e) taking place in 2030:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e\u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eDetails of considered scenario w.r.t Waste Processing \u0026amp; Bio-CNG\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/caption\u003e\u003ccolgroup cols=\"2\"\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cthead\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eSelected Scenarios\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eDescription\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/thead\u003e\u003ctbody\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eScenario A\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eBaseline scenario that considers a high dependency on landfilling that is sustained, 65% uncontrolled landfilling, 35% basic composting. (Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eScenario B\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eAligned with SBM 2.0 Target meeting national targets of high levels of scientific waste recovery, 80% diversion from landfills through 50% anaerobic digestion, 30% improved composting, 20% engineered landfilling.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/tbody\u003e\u003c/colgroup\u003e\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn order to determine the national-scale of the energy recoverable portion of the projected 2030 urban MSW, that is, how much Bio-CNG (wet waste) can be produced.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"2. METHODOLOGY","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe approach used in this review employs a systematic methodological structure and step-by-step methodology to quantify India's municipal solid waste (MSW) scenario for 2030. As depicted in Fig.\u0026nbsp;2Figure 2, it starts with urban population forecasting, MSW generation estimation, and composition analysis. Two management scenarios are then formulated Baseline (business as usual) and SBM 2.0-aligned (intervention-based. Every scenario is assessed based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and potential energy recovery. The information obtained leads to strategic policy proposals consistent with India's climate and waste management objectives.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe paper is constructed based on a thorough synthesis of information contained in a broad range of official government reports as well as academic studies and publications by multilateral organizations. Demographic data underpinning are based on the Census of India 2011. (International Institute for Population Sciences, n.d.) Projected population growth and urbanization trends have been informed by projections found at the national policy think tank of India, NITI Aayog, Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA), and the World Bank.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe information related to MSW generation rates, the physical and chemical composition of MSW, and existing management practices are mainly based on technical reports and surveys by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI), and the own statistical handbooks created by MoHUA (Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2000\u003c/span\u003e). These sources are used to derive essential parameters like the per capita waste generation rates in correlation with the size of the city and the average decomposition of waste material into biodegradable, recyclable, and inert categories.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe analytical framework of GHG emissions is founded on the standards and emission factors given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely taking the Global Warming Potential (GWP) values of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)(GHG Management Institute, n.d.). The methodological approaches in comparing various waste management pathways are based on established models such as Waste Reduction Model (WARM) proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and other lifecycle assessment literature.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eLastly, energy potential calculations use conversion factors and efficiency of technology estimates by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) in India, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and peer-reviewed technical literature on bio-methanation and thermal Waste-to-Energy processes.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.1 Projection Modelling:\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.1.1 Urban Population (2030)\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIndia The Baseline projection is anchored to the 2011 Census of 377.1\u0026nbsp;million urban population. For the purpose of calculation in this paper the report of (Ministry of Health and Family Welfare \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e) is taken. The Urban population taken here is 546,838,000 for year 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.1.2 Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Generation (2030)\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eAccording to the synthesis of studies of the mid-2010s for a conservative baseline of 0.45 kg/capita/day (Sharma and Sitorus \u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), adding an annual growth of 1.3% which is considered by the government analysis to capture the increasing incomes and consumption (Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2000\u003c/span\u003e), the rate that is expected approximately in 2030 is the following: 0.55 kg capita 2030/day.\u003cdiv class=\"BlockQuote\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eTotal daily MSW is calculated as\u003c/em\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eMSW(TPD)​=Urban Population x Per Capita Generation rate\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eMSW(TPD)​=546,838,000 \u0026times;0.55\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;300760.9 TPD\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eIt is approximated that total annual MSW generation is about 110\u0026nbsp;million tonnes.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.2.3 Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Composition (2030)\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe estimated annual MSW volume is broken down into major fractions as shown by extensive characterization of Indian waste by CPCB and NEERI (Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2000\u003c/span\u003e). The composition adopted in this study for 2030 are consistent, surveys and official audits persistently indicate that Indian municipal waste streams continue to be controlled by a large share of biodegradable and organic fractions, gradually but consistently followed by an increase in plastics and dry recyclables because of urbanization and lifestyle changes. The values are referenced with the 60 cities data (Central Pollution Control Board \u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). As a result, the figures applied to scenario analysis not only account for the empirical data collected over decades but also the predicted future urbanization and waste generation trends in India, so they are safe to use to make projections up to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cul\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eWet Biodegradable: 52%\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eDry Recyclable Spillage: 18%\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eDry Non-Recyclable (High-Calorific) Waste: 15%\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eInert \u0026amp; Other Waste: 15%\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ul\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.3 GHG Emission Calculation\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThese emissions are measured as there are tonnes of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e equivalent (CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee) and these are computed 100 years-Global Warming Potentials (GWP100) per IPCC AR6. The GWP of methane is conventionally distinguished critically on the basis of origin as proposed by GHG Protocol and IPCC:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cul\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eCH\u003csub\u003e4\u003c/sub\u003e (biogenic): GWP\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;27.0. This number is used on methane emissions of the oxidation of biogenic material (e.g. food and yard) in landfills, composting and anaerobic digestion. It is a measure of the warming effect of the methane molecule as such without any consideration of the ultimate conversion of methane into CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e that was already present as a part of the natural carbon cycle. (GHG Protocol \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eN\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eO: GWP\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;273. This is implemented on the emission of nitrous oxide which is mainly as a result of the composting process.(GHG Protocol \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ul\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.4 Bio-CNG Potential\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe calculation of the energy potential of the biochemical pathway is made according to the amount of the total estimated volume of wet biodegradable waste. Conversion factors that are used are stated as follows:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cul\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eBiogas Yield: It is assumed to be a conservative biogas yield of 90 Normal cubic meters (Nm3) of raw biogas to make one tonne of wet MSW feedstock, based on specific Indian and international evidence. (Singh and others 2023)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eMethane Content: The raw biogas is assumed to have an average content of 55\u0026ndash;60% methane.(Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, n.d.)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eBio-CNG Conversion: The raw biogas is then converted as Bio-CNG or Compressed Biogas/CBG which is purified to more than 92 percent of methane content. The last conversion element is 0.4 kg of Bio-CNG formation against 1 Nm3 of raw biogas processed. (Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, n.d.)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ul\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e, the pathways of the wet and dry waste treatment are mapped, and it is possible to observe how a source-segregated stream may result in bio-energy, compost, or recyclables. This is in tandem with the estimates of composition made earlier in the paper and directly feeds into the energy recovery, and emission modelling later in the paper. The flow diagram of urban MSW is significant in order to make the proposed model of waste recovery operational.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. RESULT AND DISCUSSIONS","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.1 India\u0026apos;s Urban Population in 2030:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eBy 2030 the projected population of India will reach by approximately 547 million, an increase of over 170 million from the 2011 (Ministry of Health and Family Welfare 2019). India is adding the equivalent of the entire Brazilian population in cities in less than twenty years. The main contributor to the rising need in the urban infrastructure and services is this surge in population, MSW management being one of the most burning issues. The urban portion of the aggregate population is expected to reach around 39-40 percent, assuring the national change to the mainly rural to a gradually more urban-based society (H. S. Puri 2020).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.2 Projected Urban MSW generation\u003c/strong\u003e: An urban population which tends to grow and an associated growth in the level of consumption per capita translates to an intensive rise in the amount of waste generated. Based on projected urban population, 546.8 million and the average per capita generation rate of 0.55 kg/day, this study projects that in 2030, an estimated 300,760 tonnes of the MSW will produce each day (TPD).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis translates to approximately 110 million tonnes of MSW annually. It is almost twice the estimated 62 million tonnes produced every year in the middle of the 2010s (International Trade Administration, n.d.). It is not difficult to see the enormity of the task ahead of Urban Local Bodies (ULBs), which will have to plan, collect, transport and scientifically treat this huge mountain of refuse.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUrban population increase exponentially as well as per capita generation of waste with a dramatically increasing total quantity of MSW to be handled by Indian cities. Figure 4 shows the trend projection in terms of population and generation of MSW until 2030 (target year) in important benchmark years namely; 2011 (base year), 2024 (current year), and 2030 (target year of the study).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt depicts the high level of overlap between urbanization and rising MSW production indicating how important it is to have realizable waste management infrastructure in Indian cities.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.3 Projected Composition of Urban Waste Stream 2030\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eKnowing the composition of this future waste stream is essential to developing effective strategies to manage it and realise its resource potentials. The anticipated 110 million tonnes of a year urban MSW is broken into four main categories, as seen in Figure 5. It is a necessary breakdown required in the modelling of both the environmental and energy recovery consequence of the variances of the waste management pathways (also reflected in Figure 3).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cem\u003eWet Biodegradable Waste:\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e This continues to be the single largest component estimated at 57.2 million tonnes per annum (52 per cent). This food waste, vegetable market garbage, and yard trimming fraction make up the bulk of the feedstock of biological treatment methods such as composting and anaerobic digestion.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cem\u003eDry Recyclable Waste:\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e This part, containing products with well-established recycling, such as PET bottles, cardboard, and metals, is expected to make up 19.8 million tonnes of a year (18%).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cem\u003eDry Non-Recyclable (High-Calorific) Waste:\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e This is the difficult to process but energy-heavy material composed of multi-layer plastics, textiles, rubber, and other combustibles and is anticipated to be 16.5 million tonnes annually (15%). This is the intended feedstock of thermal Waste-to-Energy technologies.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cem\u003eInert \u0026amp; Other Waste:\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e Composed of silt, stones, construction and wiping down (C\u0026amp;D) debris and other non-combustible, non-biodegradable wastes, this fraction is expected to average 16.5 million tonnes a year (15%).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe discussion of such projections shows that there is an essential aspect that one cannot ignore regarding the challenge; the increment is not only about quantity, but it is also a matter of increment in complexity. Although the sheer amount of the wet organic waste will be huge, resulting in a huge potential feedstock to bio-energy, the sheer amount of the complex dry waste plastics, multi-layered packaging, and e-waste is expected to increase by far disproportionately. It is a direct result of the fact that the Indian economy is projected to double by 2030, which will be reflected in the level of per capita income and consumerist living (Down to Earth 2016). As incomes rise, so does the consumption patterns towards more packaged and processed goods that have fundamentally changed the garbage we put in our household waste bins (Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister 2024).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis two-fold growth exerts concomitant and different pressures on waste management infrastructure. It requires a system capable of processing an overwhelming organic flow and a complicated and heterogeneous dry flow in bulk. A policy or infrastructure plan based on a single stream cost like favouring just composting of wet waste or just victual recovery of dry waste will automatically be inadequate up to the 2030 challenge. This fact requires the unified approach merging source segregation, material recovery facilities (MRFs), biological plants (composting and anaerobic digestion), and thermo-processing plants (WtE) into a single system.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.4 Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios (2030)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe management route adopted to handle the estimated 110 million tonnes of urban MSW will result in radically different impacts on the national GHG emission picture of India. This section forecasts and compares two possible cases to the year 2030.\u0026nbsp;Table 2\u0026nbsp;summarizes the emission factors of the various management pathways upon which this analysis is based.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable\u0026nbsp;2\u0026nbsp; Emission factors applied in scenario-based calcs of GHG emissions on various biodegradable waste management proceedings.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"601\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eManagement Pathway\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePrimary GHG Emitted\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGWP₁₀₀ (IPCC AR6)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEmission Factor (kg CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee/tonne)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eKey Assumptions/Source\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eUnmanaged Landfill\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCH\u003csub\u003e4\u003c/sub\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e27.0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e~600\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eBased on methane potential of mixed organic waste decomposition\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eComposting (Managed)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;N\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eO, fugitive CH\u003csub\u003e4\u003c/sub\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e273, 27.0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e~50\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAssumes well-aerated piles but accounts for typical process emissions\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAnaerobic Digestion\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eFugitive CH\u003csub\u003e4\u003c/sub\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e27\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e~10\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAssumes \u0026gt;95% biogas capture efficiency for energy use\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eNote: Assumed values (kg CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee /tonne of waste treated), references and specifications of each model are summarized in the table\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEmission factors follow IPCC guidelines adapted for Indian waste conditions, ranging from 600 kg CO₂e/tonne for uncontrolled landfills to 10 kg CO₂e/tonne for anaerobic digestion with \u0026gt;95% methane capture.\u003cem\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/em\u003e(Metz and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2005). (Nordahl et al. 2023)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFigure 6\u0026nbsp;compares GHG emissions between the two scenarios, and demonstrate that Scenario A generates 44.83 million tonnes CO₂e annually, whereas Scenario B significantly reduces emissions to 3.92 million tonnes CO₂e; which displays a radically-reduced emission of 40.91 million tonnes of CO₂e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.5 SCENARIO A: RESULTS\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis situation is a scenario that despite good plans on policies, the scenario has remained at the ground level very slow and uncoordinated due to the current state of affairs in most parts of the country. Scenario A, as outlined in\u0026nbsp;Table 1, presupposes continued high dependency on unscientific landfilling (65%) and basic composting (35%).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn this case:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eLandfilled waste: 110 million tonnes/year x 0.65= 71.5 million tonnes/year.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eProcessed Waste: 110 million tonnes/year x 0.35= 38.5 million tonnes/year.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThe anaerobic biodegradation of this huge organic component of the 71.5 million tonnes of mixed waste disposed of in the landfills is the main source of GHG emissions.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eLand Warning Emissions: 71.5 M tonnes x 600kg CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee /tonne = 42,900,000 tonnes CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eProcessing emissions (on the assumption that it is mostly low-efficiency composting): 38.5 M tonnes\u0026times; 50 kg CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee/tonne = 1,925,000 tonnes CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThe overall estimated annual GHG activity in Baseline scenario is 44.825 million tonnes of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.6 SBM 2.0 Target: Scenario B (An Integrated processing pathway)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis situation is the imitation of the achievement of the mission established in Swachh Bharat Mission 2.0 that proposes to transform all cities into the Garbage Free institutions of 2026(Asian Development Bank 2022). Scenario B, aligned with the SBM 2.0 Target\u0026nbsp;Table 1, envisions a minimum of 80% of collected waste undergoing scientific processing, with a strong focus on source segregation and resource recovery.(Press Information Bureau 2021).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eWaste Processed: 110 million tonnes/year * 0.80=88 million tonnes/year.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eWaste Landfilled (Residuals): 110 million tonnes/year*0.20=22 million tonnes/year.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe 88 million tonnes of processed wastes comes under a combination of technologies which is suitable to each fraction. This approach process the 57.2 million tonnes of wet biodegradable waste is shifted to the biological treatment completely (including anaerobic digestion and composting), whereas the dry waste is directed to recycling and\u0026nbsp;Waste-to-Energy\u0026nbsp;plants. In the 22 million tonnes that are disposed to land, the biggest proportion of the waste is dealt with in landfills and is composed of inert materials and rejects of low organic content.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eLandfilling (Inerts): 22 M tonnes 100 kg CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee/tonne=2,200,000 tonnes CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eAnaerobic Digestion (50 per cent of wet waste emits 10 kg CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee/ tonne): 28.6 M tonnes x 10 kg CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee/ tonne=286,000 tonnes CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eComposting emissions (half of the wet waste, 28.6 M tonnes): 28.6 M tonnes 50 kg CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee / tonne = 1,430,000 tonnes CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eOn an annual basis, the total estimated GHG footprint under SBM 2.0 Target scenario is about 3.92 million tonnes of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.7 Comparison of Analysis and Mitigation Potential\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs illustrated in Figure 7, the implementation of an integrated waste processing system aligned with SBM 2.0 would reduce annual urban MSW GHG emissions to 3.92 MMT CO2e, a significant reduction compared to the 44.825 MMT CO2e under the Baseline scenario. This is a mitigation potential of 40.90 million tonnes/year of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee. This discovery makes better solid waste management as one of the most excellent and convenient sub-national oppositions to address the problem of climate change in India. It also emphasizes that the policy decisions being taken as to the urban sanitation infrastructure in the next few years will define the implications directly and significantly on the capacity of the country fulfilling international climate obligations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe phenomenon of the \u0026quot;processing paradox\u0026quot; is also an important nuance in the analysis, which can easily be expressed in the context of policy. Although any processing is better than landfilling, the type of processing technology selected has its own unique GHG signature. Composting, though huge improvement, is an aerobic process which turns organic carbon mainly to CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e. When not optimally aerated, compost heaps may become anaerobic and become fugitive methane sources (Deesing 2021). Moreover, composting nitrogen-rich fractions may result in the emission of nitrous oxide (N\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eO) which has a GWP 100 of 273, making it another considerable contributor to the climate impact of the overall process (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, n.d.-b). Conversely, anaerobic digestion (AD) is the method of designed anaerobic operation in a contained, controlled environment. It specifically captures the resulting methane-rich biogas to produce energy (Davidson Environmental, n.d.). This trapping and use process limits the emission of methane, and it is what makes AD a better technology regarding pure GHG mitigation. The implication is that policy and financial incentives need to be graduated not only to incentivize a transition to stop land filling and start processing, but to favorably promote the implementation of AD and biogas capture technologies where technically and economically doable.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.8 Energy Recovery Potential: Biochemical Pathway (National Bio-CNG Potential)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe 57.2 million tonnes of wet biodegradable waste produced annually is the biggest share of the waste stream; this is a colossal source of anaerobic digestion feedstock. Through modern bio-methanation facilities this organic resource can be converted into large amounts of Bio-CNG (also called Compressed Biogas or CBG), a renewable energy with identical chemical composition to regular natural gas(International Energy Agency 2020).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs shown in Figure 1, the anaerobic digestion process converts organic waste into valuable biogas and digestate, enabling energy recovery and reducing GHG emissions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUpon an analysis applying conversion factors provided in the methodology, the analysis indicates that nationally, there is potential to generate nearly 2.06 million tonnes of Bio-CNG annually just using urban MSW.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eCalculation:\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eFeedstock: Wet waste 57.2 million tonnes\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eBiogas production: 57.2 M tonnes x 90 Nm3/ tonne= 5,148 million Nm3 biogas\u0026nbsp;\u003c/em\u003e\u003cem\u003e(Singh and others 2023)\u003c/em\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eBio-CNG Production: 5,148 M Nm3 0.4 kg/ Nm3 2,059 million kg = 2.06 million tonnes\u0026nbsp;\u003c/em\u003e\u003cem\u003e(Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, n.d.)\u003c/em\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe amount of urban waste that can be converted to 2.06 million tonnes of potential production can be a pillar towards the achievement of these mandates and making India more self-reliant in energy and less dependent on imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIndia\u0026apos;s current Bio-CNG infrastructure must expand significantly to realize the estimated 2.06 MTPA potential\u003cem\u003e.\u003c/em\u003e Figure 8 illustrates Bio-CNG plant ecosystem of India, including regional distribution, operational capacity, and the development pipeline (Ramboll, n.d.).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe second significant energy avenue is the use of the non-recyclable dry waste which has high-calorific value (HCV) of 16.5 million tonnes per annum. This part contains materials such as lower graded plastics, textiles and rubber that do not have strong recycling markets and they can serve as fuel in the new WtE plants to create electricity.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis offers a predictable, uninterrupted supply of renewable energy which could be used in conjunction with the variability of solar and wind power. This resource is way beyond the present installed capacity of the plants of Waste-to-Energy in India, implying that there is immense potential to scale(Swachh Bharat Mission Urban, n.d.). Converting waste to energy products (Bio-CNG, electricity) can transform SWM from a municipal cost (Rs. 500-1500/tonne) into a revenue source as the cost of collection and transport top-ups flowers, with minimal resources left to finance scintific processing (Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs 2000). This forms a vicious cycle of improper services delivery and under funding. Quite fundamentally this dynamic can be changed by converting the waste into marketable energy products - Bio-CNG and electricity. The production of Bio-CNG will directly replace imported LNG, contributing to India\u0026apos;s energy security and conserving foreign exchange (ET Edge Insights, n.d.). \u0026nbsp;Such financial model may create a sustainable system of waste processing as the money collected during the sale of this energy may be used in combination with supportive policies, such as blending mandates, and through feasible Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). This will be a revenue source of which the capital and operational costs of the advanced processing facilities can be covered, whereby altering SWM into a utility service that is self-sufficient and perhaps profitable itself. It is through this financial feasibility that it is, therefore, possible to break this cycle of neglect and meet the huge infrastructure investment needed to handle the 2030 waste problem in India.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"4. DISCUSSION","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e4.1 The Scale of the Challenge and the Opportunity\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe results of such analysis give a vivid portrayal of the intersections that urban India is reaching. The annual urban MSW of 100-plus million tonnes in the year 2030 is an enormous management challenge. Scenario A emissions of 45 MMT CO₂e annually represent the extreme environmental impact of the lack of action. Such a route would not only worsen human health emergencies and land corruption but also deal a serious blow to the Indian climate targets.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eConversely, the integrated processing model of SBM 2.0 presents a significant opportunity, potentially mitigating over 41 MMT CO₂e annually by nearly decarbonizing the waste industry. Further, this can unlock a domestic energy source, generating an estimated 2.06 million tonnes of Bio-CNG annually. This shifts the equation completely: the cost of a systematic redesign of waste to a circular economy is not an environmental investment but one in securing our climate, energy security, and circular economies. The price of doing nothing, in the form of environmental degradation and consequent health effects, and squandered wealth, is much higher than is the price of this needed change.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e4.2 Navigating the Gap: Insights to Impact\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA key barrier to leveraging this opportunity is the huge gulf between policy ambition and on-the-ground implementation: the \u0026quot;implementation chasm.\u0026quot; Although national policies such as SBM 2.0 and the visions articulated by Niti Aayog have a progressive and comprehensive nature (Press Information Bureau 2021), reports from independent bodies such as the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) describe much more starkly, the reality faced by many ULBs. CAG emphasized ongoing deficiencies in planning, baseline studies, hazardous waste and the management of C\u0026amp;D waste, and open dumping (Comptroller and Auditor General of India 2024).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis gap is compounded through a data dichotomy. While the SBM-Urban official dashboard alludes to \u0026gt; 80% waste processing nationally as of 2024 (Swachh Bharat Mission Urban, n.d.), independent analyses and media reports suggest the effective scientific processing rate is even lower than 50% and even lower than respectable source segregation (Earth5R, n.d.). The wide discrepancy in estimates seems to arise from different and often loose definitions of \u0026apos;processing\u0026apos;, and too much dependence on data self-reported by ULBs. The absence of credible, standardized data limits monitoring and tracking and does not allow impact assessment to improve policy, nor any reasonable course correction.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA SWOT framework is employed in order to outline the transformation opportunity of the solid waste sector under SBM 2.0 in a systematic manner. Figure 9 is a synthesis of the strategic strengths, underlying systemic weaknesses, upcoming opportunities, and new threats at the urban MSW governance and valorisation of energy in India. This diagram aids the argument that although the policy and technical backbone is in place, the achievement is conditional on the available implementation capacities, transparency of data, and most successful implementation of the mixes through the relationships between the government and private sectors.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor the private sector to manage and de-risk investment, and to have an established economic driver for processing plants, the government needs to:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEnhance Blending Mandates: Strictly enforce a 5% CBG blending mandate in CGD and transport, and design and implement a transparent trading framework for CBG certificates to ensure offtake.(International Energy Agency 2023)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMaintain Feasible Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs): State electricity regulatory commissions need to establish preferential tariffs, in addition to \u0026apos;must-run\u0026apos; status, for\u0026nbsp;Waste-to-Energy\u0026nbsp;power plants to assist them in securing revenue flows.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCreate Markets for Compost: Implement a uniform national policy for promoting and marketing city compost, perhaps in conjunction with fertilizer subsidy programs, or with a compulsory procurement requirement for the horticulture departments of government, to deal with the large quantities of digested and compost co-product (Down to Earth 2024).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA one size fits all technological answer is fundamentally unfair to the diversity of urban scales that exist in India. Policy and funding must promote tiered solutions. India is heterogeneous in cities sizes, economic capacities, and waste patterns, and hence a tier-based implementation plan is essential. Figure 10, suggests a differentiated model in which high-tech centralized systems are the solution of metropolis cities, and localized bio-CNG or composting is the solution to small towns. This provides not only scalability and fit to context, but is underpinned by a level of policy, funding and technical assistance.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eTier 1 (Mega-Cities and Metros): Recommended to focus implementation around integrated hubs with large scale centralized Anaerobic Digestion/Bio-CNG facilities for massive organic load, alongside modern Waste to Energy processing those residual non-recyclable, high calorific fraction.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eTier 2 (Medium sized cities): Should implement centralized compost plants and small bio-methanation plants.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eTier 3 (Small towns and peri-urban areas): Should require decentralized compost and bio-methanation units to limit transport cost to get to and create local resource loop for agriculture.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eULBs are the implementers of these waste management systems but often find themselves to be the weakest link in the chain because of their low financial and technical capacity(Comptroller and Auditor General of India 2024). To empower ULBs, what the central and State governments must do is:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eProvide Viability Gap Funding: Provide this funding so that those capital intensive projects\u0026nbsp;Waste-to-Energy\u0026nbsp;and Bio-CNG are one commercially interesting for private investments under Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) model.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eDevelop Standard and Uniformized PPP frameworks: Develop template contracts and risk sharing approaches and tools just related to bidding and delivery of waste processing right from the beginning, so that this is not an issue for ULBs.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eDevelop Technical Assistance Programmes: develop regional centres of excellence or deploy technical assistance units to assist ULBs with project planning, DPR preparation and contract administration.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e"},{"header":"CONCLUSION","content":"\u003cp\u003eIndia's urbanization path is going to present one of the biggest challenges and opportunities in development within the decade ahead. By 2030, Indian cities will face the challenge of managing approximately 110 million tonnes of municipal solid waste. The pathway that India chooses to manage this waste will have serious implications for the environment, public health, energy security, and India's commitments toward climate action.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eContinuing under the baseline scenario of unscientific dumping would exacerbate environmental degradation, leading to annual greenhouse gas emissions exceeding 45 million tonnes of CO2e from the waste sector alone. There will be increased polluted land and water, increased public health risk, with the arrival of more 'disasters', not to mention inability to meet core national and international climate commitments.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOn the other hand, there is an achievable and measurable way forward. The strategic management of waste presents India with an opportunity to capitalize on the principles of circular economies, and the implementation of an integrated waste management strategy, such as the strategy imagined under the Swachh Bharat Mission 2.0. This study shows that such a transformative change could potentially avoid more than 41 million tonnes of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee each year, and contribute to India's Climate Action Plan. Beyond environmental benefits, this unlocks a powerful domestic energy resource, with the potential to generate approximately 2.06 million tonnes of clean-burning Bio-CNG annually. Realizing this potential depends on overcoming the deeply entrenched implementation challenges that have historically limited the sector. It will require effort to enforce source segregation, create a market for recovered materials, utilise targeted financial and technical support for urban local bodies, and credible and transparent data. The evidence is abundantly clear: investing in modern and scientifically sound waste management is not an unessential environmental expenditure. It is a strategic investment for India's energy sovereignty, climate-resilience and sustainable health and economic prosperity for its rapidly growing future urban centre.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEthics approval and consent to participate\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNot applicable\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;Authors ORCID iDs\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAbhay Kumar Verma \u0026nbsp;0000-0001-7426-8083 (Corresponding author)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePushpendra Singh: 0009-0007-0103-368X\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAvailability of data and material\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe collected and analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCompeting interests\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFunding\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNot applicable.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePreprint Declaration\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePaper is intended to upload on pre-print server\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthor\u0026rsquo;s Contributions\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAbhay Kumar Verma: Conceptualisation, analysis, final manuscript editing and supervision.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePushpendra Singh: Drafting; Analysis; Due Diligence\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAll authors read and approved the final manuscript.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAsian Development Bank. 2022. \u0026ldquo;56286-001: Swachh Bharat Mission 2.0\u0026ndash;Comprehensive Municipal Waste Management in Indian Cities Program.\u0026rdquo; https://www.adb.org/projects/56286-001/main.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eCentral Pollution Control Board. 2015. \u003cem\u003eAssessment and Characterisation of Plastic Waste Generation in 60 Major Cities\u003c/em\u003e. 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Sitorus. 2019. \u0026ldquo;Overview of Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Composition, and Management in India.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eSingh, P. and others. 2023. \u0026ldquo;India\u0026rsquo;s Biomethane Generation Potential from Wastes and the Corresponding Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Possibilities under Three End Use Scenarios.\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eSustainable Energy \u0026amp; Fuels\u003c/em\u003e 7 (10): 2419\u0026ndash;37. https://doi.org/10.1039/D2SE01028C.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eSwachh Bharat Mission Urban. n.d. \u0026ldquo;SBM Urban 2.0.\u0026rdquo; https://sbmurban.org/.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eU.S. Environmental Protection Agency. n.d.-a. \u0026ldquo;Basic Information about Landfill Gas.\u0026rdquo; https://www.epa.gov/lmop/basic-information-about-landfill-gas.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eU.S. Environmental Protection Agency. n.d.-b. \u0026ldquo;Understanding Global Warming Potentials.\u0026rdquo; https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding-global-warming-potentials.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Consilience Research Foundation, Dehradun, India","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Urbanization, Municipal Solid Waste (MSW), Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Swachh Bharat Mission Urban 2.0 (SBM-U 2.0), Bio-Compressed Natural Gas (Bio-CNG), Climate Action Ask ChatGPT","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7346870/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7346870/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe high rate of urbanization in India is a highlight of the 21st century development pathway of this country, and it poses a trilemma of economic growth, environmental sustainability, and people health. The paper gives a quantitative overlay of the municipal solid waste (MSW) scenario in urban India by 2030, its effect on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The demographic projections and the set metrics of waste generation are used in this analysis to estimate that by the year 2030, India would have around 547\u0026nbsp;million urban population, generating close to 110\u0026nbsp;million tonnes of MSW each year. The two waste management scenarios considered in the study are a Baseline scenario pathway that is continuous reliance on the unscientific landfills, and scenario 2 aligned with \u0026lsquo;SBM-U 2.0 (Swachh Bharat Mission Urban 2.0) Target' pathway which is coordinated with national goals for waste processing. The findings show that a transit into a successful SBM 2.0 model may reduce more than 41\u0026nbsp;million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e​e) emission per year as opposed to the Baseline scenario, largely by eliminating landfill methane (CH\u003csub\u003e4\u003c/sub\u003e​) emissions. Moreover, the paradigm change opens a considerable domestic energy source. The analysis estimates a national urban capacity to generate about 2.06\u0026nbsp;million tonnes of Bio-Compressed Natural Gas (Bio-CNG) out of wet biodegradable waste. Targeted policy recommendations at the end of the paper are aimed at introducing source segregation, developing effective market mechanisms on the reclaimed resource, a tiered technology strategy and ensuring capacity gaps in the Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) to rebuild India into the strategic waste to address the rising waste problem into a strategic advantage of climate action and energy independence in India.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Estimated future Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Waste-to-Energy Potential of Wet Waste in Urban India OUTLOOK (2030)","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-08-12 13:41:22","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7346870/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7aa57e16-c4d9-4635-880d-b307251d38bc","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 12th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":53049462,"name":"Environmental Engineering"},{"id":53049463,"name":"Environmental Policy"},{"id":53049464,"name":"Environmental Economics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-08-12T13:41:22+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-08-12 13:41:22","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7346870","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7346870","identity":"rs-7346870","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}