Dynamic Rockfall Risk Assessment Using Multi-Source Data Fusion and 3D Simulation: A Case Study of Jiaohua Rock

Dynamic Rockfall Risk Assessment Using Multi-Source Data Fusion and 3D Simulation: A Case Study of Jiaohua Rock | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Dynamic Rockfall Risk Assessment Using Multi-Source Data Fusion and 3D Simulation: A Case Study of Jiaohua Rock Xingxing Zhao, Wang fen, Zhenwei Dai, Weizhi Jiao, Jun Geng, Qihui Xiong, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7721638/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 14 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Rockfall represents a sudden and highly destructive geological hazard, posing significant risks to mountainous communities and infrastructure. This study presents an integrated dynamic risk assessment for the Jiaohua perilous rock zone in Kaizhou District, Chongqing, China, by fusing multi-source data including field investigation, UAV photogrammetry, and 3D numerical simulation. Kinematic analysis identified a critical slope angle of 57° for rockfall initiation, enabling the classification of two primary susceptibility zones. High-precision 3D simulations using RAMMS:ROCKFALL were conducted on six identified hazardous rock masses (#WY1–#WY6). The simulations delineated two distinct rockfall mechanisms: #WY1–#WY3 sources generate high-energy, short-duration impacts, achieving kinetic energies up to 1.88×10⁴ kJ within 10–15 seconds, posing a direct threat to the residential area below. Conversely, rockfalls from #WY4–#WY6 involve longer travel paths with considerable energy attenuation, yet residual kinetic energy remains capable of causing zonal damage. The simulated kinetic energies were translated into quantitative impact force estimates, forming the basis for differentiated mitigation strategies. These include active reinforcement and high-strength interception for short-range, high-energy events, and multi-level buffering with trajectory control for long-runout cases. This integrated methodology offers a scientifically grounded framework for precise hazard prevention and serves as a valuable reference for rockfall risk management in analogous geological settings, particularly within the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Physical sciences/Engineering Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Solid earth sciences Rockfall hazard Dynamic risk assessment 3D numerical simulation Kinematic analysis Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 27 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 24 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 22 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 20 Oct, 2025 Editor invited by journal 16 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 30 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 27 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 26 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7721638","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":535317505,"identity":"e354314f-8fa1-46a0-b5ec-54a4a7bea8f0","order_by":0,"name":"Xingxing Zhao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Chongqing Three Gorges University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xingxing","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":535317506,"identity":"cd11620a-9bb3-4ed0-b56c-cc5082449ed6","order_by":1,"name":"Wang fen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China University of 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Rock","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Rockfall hazard, Dynamic risk assessment, 3D numerical simulation, Kinematic analysis","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7721638/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7721638/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eRockfall represents a sudden and highly destructive geological hazard, posing significant risks to mountainous communities and infrastructure. This study presents an integrated dynamic risk assessment for the Jiaohua perilous rock zone in Kaizhou District, Chongqing, China, by fusing multi-source data including field investigation, UAV photogrammetry, and 3D numerical simulation. Kinematic analysis identified a critical slope angle of 57\u0026deg; for rockfall initiation, enabling the classification of two primary susceptibility zones. High-precision 3D simulations using RAMMS:ROCKFALL were conducted on six identified hazardous rock masses (#WY1\u0026ndash;#WY6). The simulations delineated two distinct rockfall mechanisms: #WY1\u0026ndash;#WY3 sources generate high-energy, short-duration impacts, achieving kinetic energies up to 1.88\u0026times;10⁴ kJ within 10\u0026ndash;15 seconds, posing a direct threat to the residential area below. Conversely, rockfalls from #WY4\u0026ndash;#WY6 involve longer travel paths with considerable energy attenuation, yet residual kinetic energy remains capable of causing zonal damage. The simulated kinetic energies were translated into quantitative impact force estimates, forming the basis for differentiated mitigation strategies. These include active reinforcement and high-strength interception for short-range, high-energy events, and multi-level buffering with trajectory control for long-runout cases. This integrated methodology offers a scientifically grounded framework for precise hazard prevention and serves as a valuable reference for rockfall risk management in analogous geological settings, particularly within the Three Gorges Reservoir area.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Dynamic Rockfall Risk Assessment Using Multi-Source Data Fusion and 3D Simulation: A Case Study of Jiaohua Rock","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-30 23:15:29","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7721638/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-10-27T05:40:14+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-24T07:20:53+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-22T22:15:55+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"205138328590034098853910145518124781710","date":"2025-10-22T02:44:21+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"174762162048026257878331950936344091522","date":"2025-10-21T15:26:47+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"20895706992137017136501212802791288614","date":"2025-10-21T07:19:01+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"98957257911421475129453056866227535520","date":"2025-10-21T06:52:16+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"326170735869870926677898671554577153838","date":"2025-10-21T03:34:19+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"21468376176581349633625221382911866792","date":"2025-10-21T03:06:20+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-10-21T01:46:06+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2025-10-16T17:24:12+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-09-30T05:17:49+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-09-27T10:33:49+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2025-09-26T11:55:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"34cd7b2a-6429-4fe3-bde3-b087b304e876","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 30th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":56905694,"name":"Physical sciences/Engineering"},{"id":56905695,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"},{"id":56905696,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards"},{"id":56905697,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Solid earth sciences"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-26T16:00:58+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7721638","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-36769-8","journal":{"identity":"scientific-reports","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Scientific Reports"},"publishedOn":"2026-01-21 15:57:51","publishedOnDateReadable":"January 21st, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-30 23:15:29","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41598-026-36769-8","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-36769-8","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7721638","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7721638","identity":"rs-7721638","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}