Modeling human wellbeing on a finite planet towards 2100 with Earth4All

Modeling human wellbeing on a finite planet towards 2100 with Earth4All | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Modeling human wellbeing on a finite planet towards 2100 with Earth4All David Collste, Felix Barbour, Beniamino Callegari, Sarah Cornell, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3228512/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 03 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Global Sustainability → Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract How can wellbeing for all be reached while reducing risks of destabilizing the planet? This ambition underlies the 2030 Agenda but analyzing whether it is possible requires linking global socioeconomic developments with life-supporting Earth systems, incorporating feedback between them. Our new integrated systems model, Earth4All, enables exploration of plausible developments of human wellbeing and environmental pressures, 1980-2100. The relatively simple model focuses on quantifying and capturing high-level feedback between socioeconomic and environmental domains. It can analyze economic transformations towards increased wellbeing with reduced pressures on planetary boundaries. The model includes two key novelties: a social tension index and a wellbeing index, to track societal progress this century. Modeling results indicate that decision-making as usual likely leads to rising social tensions, worsening environmental pressures and declining wellbeing. We propose five turnarounds that in the model can shift the human world off the current trajectory, improve global wellbeing and ease environmental pressures. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Interdisciplinary studies Scientific community and society/Developing world Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Government Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Environmental economics Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files 206901supp147340s31hh3convrt.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 03 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Global Sustainability → Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3228512","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":234496728,"identity":"a3ece684-cb33-404b-bd2f-f38bd3d9380e","order_by":0,"name":"David 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