Assessing the Optimal Contributions of Renewables and Carbon Capture and Storage toward Carbon Neutrality by 2050

Building on the carbon reduction targets agreed in the Paris Agreements, many nations have renewed their efforts toward achieving carbon neutrality by the year 2050. In line with this ambitious goal, nations are seeking to understand the appropriate combination of technologies which will enable the required reductions in such a way that they are appealing to investors. Around the globe, solar and wind power lead in terms of renewable energy deployment, while carbon capture and storage (CCS) is scaling up toward making a significant contribution to deep carbon cuts. Using Japan as a case study nation, this research proposes a linear optimization modeling approach to identify the potential contributions of renewables and CCS toward maximizing carbon reduction and identifying their economic merits over time. Results identify that the combination of these three technologies could enable a carbon dioxide emission reduction of between 55 and 67 percent in the energy sector by 2050 depending on resilience levels and CCS deployment regimes. Further reductions are likely to emerge with increased carbon pricing over time. The findings provide insights for energy system design, energy policy making and investment in carbon reducing technologies which underpin significant carbon reductions, while identifying potential regional social co-benefits.