Co-Designing Watershed Planning: An Agent-Based Model for Participatory Water Governance in Colombia’s Multifunctional Landscapes

Co-Designing Watershed Planning: An Agent-Based Model for Participatory Water Governance in Colombia’s Multifunctional Landscapes | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Co-Designing Watershed Planning: An Agent-Based Model for Participatory Water Governance in Colombia’s Multifunctional Landscapes Cesar Rojas, Otalora Martin Low, Riascos Javier, Christopher Scott This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7464866/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Water governance is a central sustainability challenge that links ecosystem service (ES) provision, human well-being, and international targets, such as Sustainable Development Goals. However, current water planning tools often overlook two key dimensions: local participation and multiple ES supply. This study addresses this gap by co-developing an agent-based model (ABM) for the Coello River Basin, Colombia, which integrates ES multifunctionality as an important attribute of ecosystems and community willingness to participate (WTP) in conservation. The model links a probit-based estimation of WTP with agent decision rules and recalculates multifunctionality, producing dynamic simulations of land use and governance. The results show that conservation-oriented governance preserved more forest and increased network numbers compared to intensive-use scenarios, while agricultural policies that were market-oriented produced intermediate outcomes. Key findings revealed that high-multifunctionality zones had lower land transformation and stronger community participation, particularly in upper watersheds where riparian forests were prioritized by the stakeholders. By linking ES multifunctionality with community participation, the model demonstrates how resilience capacities, persistence of ecological functions, adaptive local responses, and transformative governance can be operationalized in watershed planning. Beyond the Colombian Andes, this participatory modeling framework offers a transferable approach to reconcile ecological objectives with social realities in socioecological models. MESLI Index Agent-based model integrated water resources management local conservation preferences Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files supplementarymaterial.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7464866","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":509176432,"identity":"eba14cbd-59e7-4e16-aa81-85dc2b15892b","order_by":0,"name":"Cesar Rojas","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABFElEQVRIie2RsWrDMBBAzwjsRUXrGUq/QWAohZbmVxQEzuKhUMhUjKZkKc2a3yj9AQtBpzSzpxJT8JwuxR1aehoDtpuxUL3p0N3T3UkAgcBfBQGYAJAVxZxiAxAfoaTGKwo4h+gIxUP1EkiBXxWxfGl2F3dlktX60X52r6eTxBrYzx2lTP9Mm1km8dmx8zq/cVzdcs6nJlpvHaWq/nkgjxHjipRCOlCKdpkadrJwIFH1K6Il5btk2bqQtvOKaAz7GlOQuqQLxiQWsuJeQeoSjShYt0ymD47hpqVdclLqxtj77YwP7SJWefSGH6UWS/303l2pSbLSdtfNL8+GXszD6Cv1wYm/ng/WE9Ee4HqsIBAIBP45PwuvWNRCObR7AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Cesar","middleName":"","lastName":"Rojas","suffix":""},{"id":509176433,"identity":"3c02531d-51ac-4cd6-a60e-501fb13b46cd","order_by":1,"name":"Otalora Martin Low","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pontificia Universidad Javeriana","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Otalora","middleName":"Martin","lastName":"Low","suffix":""},{"id":509176434,"identity":"d8f178b1-e76d-4ca7-957c-83c530641aa4","order_by":2,"name":"Riascos Javier","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Riascos","middleName":"","lastName":"Javier","suffix":""},{"id":509176435,"identity":"5e2a528f-cd43-463d-9b47-395e7078c6f3","order_by":3,"name":"Christopher Scott","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Pennsylvania","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Christopher","middleName":"","lastName":"Scott","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-26 16:23:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7464866/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7464866/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":93444817,"identity":"c7289c14-fd45-48b2-8748-1cd1af53c14f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-14 01:16:35","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1295848,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscriptfile.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7464866/v1_covered_e3129fb1-9c96-409e-980e-64dd51b5fc0a.pdf"},{"id":90597919,"identity":"d40975e6-47f6-43fa-be5b-179f1bd69f4e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-04 13:59:11","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":31280,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"supplementarymaterial.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7464866/v1/7ab04719a38aaf24c6dc3507.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eCo-Designing Watershed Planning: An Agent-Based Model for Participatory Water Governance in Colombia’s Multifunctional Landscapes\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"MESLI Index, Agent-based model, integrated water resources management, local conservation preferences","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7464866/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7464866/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eWater governance is a central sustainability challenge that links ecosystem service (ES) provision, human well-being, and international targets, such as Sustainable Development Goals. 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