Integrated operation of water resources in climate change conditions, considering uncertainty based on coupled dynamic models of surface water and groundwater

Integrated operation of water resources in climate change conditions, considering uncertainty based on coupled dynamic models of surface water and groundwater | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Integrated operation of water resources in climate change conditions, considering uncertainty based on coupled dynamic models of surface water and groundwater Kamran Azizi, Arash Azari, Bahman Farhadi Bansouleh This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4087508/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In regions with arid and semi-arid climates, groundwater serves as one of the main sources of agricultural, industrial, and drinking water supply, constantly interacting with surface waters. The purpose of this study is to investigate changes in the level and volume of aquifer storage in Kermanshah by simulating the interaction of surface and groundwaters, using a coupling dynamic model WEAP-MODFLOW. This model is capable of calling and automatically running climate change scenarios and displaying their effects on the entire system. In this method, data and results between the MODFLOW and WEAP models are exchanged on a monthly basis, and the impacts of implementing each of the CMIP5 climate scenarios can be observed in both surface water and groundwater sections. The values of recharge, extraction, runoff, river levels, and water supply from the WEAP model are input into the MODFLOW model to calculate groundwater levels and changes in aquifer storage, with results fed back to the WEAP model. To apply model uncertainties and climate scenarios was developed a hybrid model based on the combination of predictions from 5 different AR5 models. The results showed that over a base period of 27 years (October 1991 to September 2018), the average groundwater level at the end of the period decreased by 4.3 meters, with a reservoir volume reduction of 253 million cubic meters. In the event of aquifer operation, based on the predicted climatic parameters derived from the hybrid model during the 81 years (October 2018 to September 2099), the level of reduction and volume of aquifer storage was predicted under the optimistic scenario of RCP2.6 in order of 2.52m and 251.51MCM and the pessimistic scenario RCP8.5, respectively 8.88m and 769.04 MCM. The results demonstrated that employing an integrated operation model in a dynamic link mode is an effective strategy for better river and aquifer management under climate change conditions. The effects of each climate scenario on the entire system are observable in this model, aiding decision-makers in implementing effective adaptation strategies to climate change. Climate change surface and groundwater interactions MODFLOW WEAP Kermanshah Full Text Supplementary Files Supplementarymaterial.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4087508","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":279977427,"identity":"a3ec97ee-c0f2-4d17-bf6c-6c4e00b8760c","order_by":0,"name":"Kamran Azizi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Razi University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kamran","middleName":"","lastName":"Azizi","suffix":""},{"id":279977428,"identity":"df7a6722-7a99-4fa0-927c-9ddf3367ae24","order_by":1,"name":"Arash Azari","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAyElEQVRIie2OoQrCUBSGjwyu5eLqAWV7hQ2LyWe5srC0ZBUZCFrEvOBbGCyGXwRXfIkxWDJciyCIOJvtXpvhfhx+OOHj/4kcjv+Fg0/iE8JWGf6s0CS3XuTnXq0fh1G6X5UVaDamXh+GRRBRvG44216UAp0TEj1lqAFFSoKzghRAoj1pMEJ09fEJTtmvctDLQokg40XbopgTQmdpocQnOfUG4LjghjDZJNKoBOVqd7tiHrKf1lrfx0G4NijkfT+KyNThcDgcDhveYRg6ngEZyc0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9643-3331","institution":"Razi University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Arash","middleName":"","lastName":"Azari","suffix":""},{"id":279977429,"identity":"6395f899-a19b-42e7-a6c6-1ad6959e7867","order_by":2,"name":"Bahman Farhadi Bansouleh","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Razi University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bahman","middleName":"Farhadi","lastName":"Bansouleh","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-12 20:31:10","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4087508/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4087508/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":53742077,"identity":"af60a392-8e78-46ba-aff7-5f378cce7b6e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-03-29 16:21:56","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2168219,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4087508/v1_covered_2bdd67c9-3373-4f4f-a726-dc161a6bc61c.pdf"},{"id":53116606,"identity":"64b55203-b6a5-41e4-8960-58b66ab7b722","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-03-20 19:36:59","extension":"docx","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":652057,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Supplementarymaterial.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4087508/v1/789f8e2acc93cb374f629826.docx"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Integrated operation of water resources in climate change conditions, considering uncertainty based on coupled dynamic models of surface water and groundwater","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Climate change, surface and groundwater interactions, MODFLOW, WEAP, Kermanshah","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4087508/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4087508/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn regions with arid and semi-arid climates, groundwater serves as one of the main sources of agricultural, industrial, and drinking water supply, constantly interacting with surface waters. The purpose of this study is to investigate changes in the level and volume of aquifer storage in Kermanshah by simulating the interaction of surface and groundwaters, using a coupling dynamic model WEAP-MODFLOW. This model is capable of calling and automatically running climate change scenarios and displaying their effects on the entire system. In this method, data and results between the MODFLOW and WEAP models are exchanged on a monthly basis, and the impacts of implementing each of the CMIP5 climate scenarios can be observed in both surface water and groundwater sections. The values of recharge, extraction, runoff, river levels, and water supply from the WEAP model are input into the MODFLOW model to calculate groundwater levels and changes in aquifer storage, with results fed back to the WEAP model. To apply model uncertainties and climate scenarios was developed a hybrid model based on the combination of predictions from 5 different AR5 models. The results showed that over a base period of 27 years (October 1991 to September 2018), the average groundwater level at the end of the period decreased by 4.3 meters, with a reservoir volume reduction of 253\u0026nbsp;million cubic meters. In the event of aquifer operation, based on the predicted climatic parameters derived from the hybrid model during the 81 years (October 2018 to September 2099), the level of reduction and volume of aquifer storage was predicted under the optimistic scenario of RCP2.6 in order of 2.52m and 251.51MCM and the pessimistic scenario RCP8.5, respectively 8.88m and 769.04 MCM. The results demonstrated that employing an integrated operation model in a dynamic link mode is an effective strategy for better river and aquifer management under climate change conditions. The effects of each climate scenario on the entire system are observable in this model, aiding decision-makers in implementing effective adaptation strategies to climate change.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Integrated operation of water resources in climate change conditions, considering uncertainty based on coupled dynamic models of surface water and groundwater","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-03-20 19:36:54","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4087508/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"8951623c-ad22-4954-b54e-07a40be54e0c","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 20th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-03-29T16:13:42+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-03-20 19:36:54","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4087508","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4087508","identity":"rs-4087508","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}