Broadly quantifying the roads ahead: SSPs for 188 countries to 2150

Broadly quantifying the roads ahead: SSPs for 188 countries to 2150 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Broadly quantifying the roads ahead: SSPs for 188 countries to 2150 Jonathan Moyer, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, José Solórzano, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7104157/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This manuscript extends the operationalization of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) narratives by projecting 203 socioeconomic indicators for 188 countries to 2150 using the International Futures (IFs) model. The indicators span demographics, conflict, economics, education, health, infrastructure, and governance from a fully integrated model. They address existing limitations related to a) inconsistency between quantification and scenario narratives; b) inconsistencies driven by use of unconnected models; c) the omission of indicators; and d) lack of projections into the 22nd century. While these new projections are highly correlated with existing forecasts, they show lower economic growth driven by a broader set of variables including conflict, governance, infrastructure, and human development, which leads to lower resource demand. We also introduce new government spending measures by sector that can be used to connect the SSPs to a broader theoretical understandings of future patterns of mitigation and adaptation in the face of climate change. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction shared socioeconomic pathways integrated assessment model international futures climate change socioeconomic development Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementalInformation.docx Supplemental Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7104157","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":492435956,"identity":"6121258d-39ca-4996-b5a5-d44c8d4d4abd","order_by":0,"name":"Jonathan 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