Study on Non-Stationary Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Potential Evapotranspiration in the East Asian Monsoon Region

Study on Non-Stationary Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Potential Evapotranspiration in the East Asian Monsoon Region | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Study on Non-Stationary Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Potential Evapotranspiration in the East Asian Monsoon Region Saiyan Liu, Li Huang, Yangyang Xie, Zheng Gao, Dongyong Sun, Hongyuang Fang, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8546042/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract To investigate the non-stationary characteristics of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and the driving mechanisms of the East Asian monsoon on basin-scale, this study takes the Huaihe River Basin as a representative study area. Based on daily meteorological data from 29 stations spanning 1960–2020, PET was calculated using the FAO56 Penman–Monteith method. An improved pre-whitening Mann–Kendall test, moving-window periodic analysis, cross-wavelet transform, and sensitivity analysis were jointly applied to reveal the non-stationarity of PET and its monsoon-driven mechanisms. The results show that: (1) Temporally, the East Asian monsoon exhibits a three-stage interdecadal transition pattern of “strong–weak–strong” at the interannual scale, while PET shows a trend of strengthening followed by weakening; the interdecadal turning points of them are highly synchronized in time. (2) Spatially, basin-wide PET displays an east–high to west–low distribution pattern, and spring PET exhibits a north–south gradient characterized by decreases in the north and increases in the south. In summer, PET at most stations shows a significant decreasing trend, with the rate of decrease increasing from east to west. In autumn and winter, PET changes are relatively gentle, and decreasing trends dominate across the basin except in the southeastern area and a few western stations. (3) The East Asian monsoon index and PET exhibit significant resonant periodicities at the interannual time scale, indicating a pronounced influence of the monsoon on PET. It demonstrates that the East Asian monsoon affects seasonal wind direction, thereby modulating basin-scale meteorological factors and ultimately driving the non-stationary behavior of PET. This forms a distinctive “East Asian monsoon–meteorological factors–PET” driving framework, which not only provides key support for understanding the response of the hydrological cycle to climate change in the East Asian monsoon region, but also offers insights for related studies in other monsoon regions worldwide. East Asian Monsoon Region Huaihe River Basin Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) Non-stationarity East Asian Monsoon Index Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8546042","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":611400469,"identity":"87ffcc0f-9d47-4d6f-a788-fe3f2471e024","order_by":0,"name":"Saiyan Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Saiyan","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":611400470,"identity":"46121d2c-34e6-45a5-8a6c-c188e655236d","order_by":1,"name":"Li 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Asian Monsoon Index","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8546042/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8546042/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eTo investigate the non-stationary characteristics of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and the driving mechanisms of the East Asian monsoon on basin-scale, this study takes the Huaihe River Basin as a representative study area. Based on daily meteorological data from 29 stations spanning 1960\u0026ndash;2020, PET was calculated using the FAO56 Penman\u0026ndash;Monteith method. An improved pre-whitening Mann\u0026ndash;Kendall test, moving-window periodic analysis, cross-wavelet transform, and sensitivity analysis were jointly applied to reveal the non-stationarity of PET and its monsoon-driven mechanisms. The results show that: (1) Temporally, the East Asian monsoon exhibits a three-stage interdecadal transition pattern of \u0026ldquo;strong\u0026ndash;weak\u0026ndash;strong\u0026rdquo; at the interannual scale, while PET shows a trend of strengthening followed by weakening; the interdecadal turning points of them are highly synchronized in time. (2) Spatially, basin-wide PET displays an east\u0026ndash;high to west\u0026ndash;low distribution pattern, and spring PET exhibits a north\u0026ndash;south gradient characterized by decreases in the north and increases in the south. In summer, PET at most stations shows a significant decreasing trend, with the rate of decrease increasing from east to west. In autumn and winter, PET changes are relatively gentle, and decreasing trends dominate across the basin except in the southeastern area and a few western stations. (3) The East Asian monsoon index and PET exhibit significant resonant periodicities at the interannual time scale, indicating a pronounced influence of the monsoon on PET. It demonstrates that the East Asian monsoon affects seasonal wind direction, thereby modulating basin-scale meteorological factors and ultimately driving the non-stationary behavior of PET. This forms a distinctive \u0026ldquo;East Asian monsoon\u0026ndash;meteorological factors\u0026ndash;PET\u0026rdquo; driving framework, which not only provides key support for understanding the response of the hydrological cycle to climate change in the East Asian monsoon region, but also offers insights for related studies in other monsoon regions worldwide.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Study on Non-Stationary Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Potential Evapotranspiration in the East Asian Monsoon Region","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-26 07:06:21","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8546042/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5aa5bb67-b031-43ef-b751-a5207d3d7c0f","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 26th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"decision","content":"Rejected","date":"2026-05-11T10:18:09+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-29T18:39:15+00:00","index":15,"fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-11T10:29:58+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-26 07:06:21","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8546042","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8546042","identity":"rs-8546042","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}