Why Fixed Protections Fail Under Rising Coordination: A Structural Failure-Mode Transition in Coupled Systems

Why Fixed Protections Fail Under Rising Coordination: A Structural Failure-Mode Transition in Coupled Systems | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Why Fixed Protections Fail Under Rising Coordination: A Structural Failure-Mode Transition in Coupled Systems Chowon Jung This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9647409/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Rising coordination is tightening the coupling between once-independent agents. Governance relies on passive stabilizers (diversification, constitutional checks, automatic income supports) that buffer shocks at fixed strength. We identify a structural prediction unique to coordination dynamics: as coupling rises, the type of failure transitions from fragmentation to rigidity. This is confirmed in 22 years of S&P 500 data — drawdown-period correlation rises 0.50 → 0.88 across coupling deciles, rigidity share 0% → 100%, with empirical–model rank correlation ρ = +0.92. The underlying scaling law: a fixed field h opposing coupling J loses effectiveness as h/J 2 with an irreducible residual. The pattern survives across alternative model classes, topologies, and a second domain (cryptocurrency, 64% supercritical vs ~25% equities). An active stabilizer eliminates the residual. A heuristic AI coupling proxy (14 models × 805 prompts) locates frontier AI in the regime where passive protections decay. Overcoming the asymmetry requires active stabilizers. Physical sciences/Physics/Statistical physics, thermodynamics and nonlinear dynamics/Phase transitions and critical phenomena Physical sciences/Physics/Statistical physics, thermodynamics and nonlinear dynamics/Complex networks Physical sciences/Physics/Statistical physics, thermodynamics and nonlinear dynamics/Statistical physics Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Computer science Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files supplementary.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9647409","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":639146793,"identity":"4fefb33f-bcae-49e4-a3a9-a43503ca8d9a","order_by":0,"name":"Chowon Jung","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDCCA0CcwMDADEQgpoQM0VrYGRjYEkBaeIjTAgT8DAw8BiAGYS18x88e/PBwR600/7Qzn1/dqLHgYWA/fHQDPi2SZ/KSJRLPHDeWuJ27zTrnGNBhPGlpN/BpMTiQY8aQ2HYsmQGoxTiHDahFgscMv5bzb8Ba6uffznlmnPOPGC03wLbUMBvczmF+nNtGhBbJG2+MJRLbDjAb3k4zY87tk+BhI+QXvvM5hh9/ttUxy91Ofvw551udHD/74WN4tUDBYRDBJgEmiVAOAnUggvkDkapHwSgYBaNghAEACyBK8aXk4EYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-8232-4114","institution":"University of Colorado Boulder","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chowon","middleName":"","lastName":"Jung","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-05-08 01:10:10","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9647409/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9647409/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":109289556,"identity":"0ec36b49-8826-4977-8eaa-666c67fa23f7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-15 06:30:56","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":5788775,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"paperonly.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9647409/v1_covered_5945e161-158b-48ba-9413-40031c7b2c66.pdf"},{"id":109289555,"identity":"08fe1df0-613d-4935-9d60-c7734be27132","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-15 06:30:40","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2284612,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information","description":"","filename":"supplementary.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9647409/v1/91c8f043d7b357395cb556d8.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Why Fixed Protections Fail Under Rising Coordination: A Structural Failure-Mode Transition in Coupled Systems","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9647409/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9647409/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Rising coordination is tightening the coupling between once-independent agents. Governance relies on passive stabilizers (diversification, constitutional checks, automatic income supports) that buffer shocks at fixed strength. We identify a structural prediction unique to coordination dynamics: as coupling rises, the type of failure transitions from fragmentation to rigidity. This is confirmed in\r\n22 years of S\u0026P 500 data — drawdown-period correlation rises 0.50 → 0.88 across coupling deciles, rigidity share 0% → 100%, with empirical–model rank correlation ρ = +0.92. The underlying scaling law: a fixed field \u003ci\u003eh\u003c/i\u003e opposing coupling \u003ci\u003eJ\u003c/i\u003e loses effectiveness as \u003ci\u003eh/J\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/i\u003e with an irreducible residual. The pattern survives across alternative model classes, topologies, and a second domain\r\n(cryptocurrency, 64% supercritical vs ~25% equities). An active stabilizer eliminates the residual. A heuristic AI coupling proxy (14 models × 805 prompts) locates frontier AI in the regime where passive protections decay. 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