Identifying key drivers of habitability loss reveals pathways for climate change adaptation in the Pacific

Identifying key drivers of habitability loss reveals pathways for climate change adaptation in the Pacific | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Identifying key drivers of habitability loss reveals pathways for climate change adaptation in the Pacific Emily Nabong, Jeff Walters, Aaron Opdyke This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6130097/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Pacific islands and atolls face heightened climate risk due to low elevations and limited resources. The question of (unin)habitability in these locations is often simplified to characteristics of hazard exposure, reinforcing assumptions of inevitable mass migration. Here we use a multi-dimensional conceptualisation of habitability, built from local knowledge, to simulate habitability trends in the Pacific Island nation of Kiribati over the coming century. We find that water insecurity will be a driving factor in habitability loss, intensifying under extreme climate scenarios, while population pressures will further constrain resources. We show that regional disparities will lead to high internal migration rates, with movement to national urban centres preferred over movement abroad. Our work answers calls for a holistic and locally grounded understanding of habitability. By identifying how drivers of habitability change over time, we offer insights for targeted and timely climate adaptation. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change adaptation Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Socioeconomic scenarios Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files ImpactMatrix.pdf Impact Matrix LoopdominanceSSP12.6.pdf Loop dominance SSP1-2.6 LoopdominanceSSP58.5.pdf Loop dominance SSP5-8.5 ModelDocumentation.pdf Model Documentation ModelStructure.pdf Model structure Loopcategorisation.pdf Loop categorisation Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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