Impact of climate change on international trade: Evidence from South Africa’s wine exports

Impact of climate change on international trade: Evidence from South Africa’s wine exports | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Impact of climate change on international trade: Evidence from South Africa’s wine exports Bhekani Zondo, Ricardo Smith, Phelelani Sibiya, Thandeka Ntshangase, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7509259/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates the factors influencing South Africa's wine exports to its top ten trading partners and the impact of climate change on these exports. Using a gravity model and a dataset spanning from 2002 to 2022, the study found that increases in climate change-related factors, such as temperatures and rainfall, negatively affect South Africa’s wine exports. The study also found that other factors, such as South Africa’s GDP per capita and importer’s GDP per capita, positively affect wine exports, while the average distance between South Africa and its export markets, contrary to expectations, also had a positive impact on wine exports. Conversely, perceptions of political instability and the strength of the importer's currency had a detrimental effect on wine exports. Trade agreements, like SADC-FTA and SADC-EU-EPA, positively influenced wine exports. For policymakers and industry stakeholders, the study suggests that it is worthwhile to focus on exporting to economically stable and politically secure markets, engaging in beneficial trade agreements, and implementing measures to mitigate climate change impacts. By adopting these strategies, South Africa can enhance the resilience and competitiveness of its wine industry in the face of evolving global challenges. Business and commerce/Economics Social science/Economics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Climate change wine exports gravity model Random Effects GLS Fixed Effects Feasible GLS Figures Figure 1 Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 21 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 17 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 13 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 13 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 13 Oct, 2025 Editor invited by journal 13 Oct, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 26 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 26 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7509259","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":531350324,"identity":"1475bfa6-d97b-4583-b151-b8278a056cd9","order_by":0,"name":"Bhekani Zondo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bhekani","middleName":"","lastName":"Zondo","suffix":""},{"id":531350325,"identity":"f5b17784-db5a-47a4-93ee-84af6a9574d0","order_by":1,"name":"Ricardo Smith","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Agricultural Marketing Council 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1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":86416,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSouth Africa’s wine exports to the world between 2001 and 2022.\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003eSource\u003cstrong\u003e: \u003c/strong\u003eTrade Map (2024)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7509259/v1/fd3016166887e9d7b3d6eda8.png"},{"id":94493218,"identity":"dd092023-cb61-4129-9656-995ec9f83544","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-27 17:31:07","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":546955,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript6RImpactofclimatechangeontrade1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7509259/v1_covered_b311d16b-3a20-496c-85e5-6ab5389a7b2e.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Impact of climate change on international 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