Assessment of Future Streamflow Variability in the Duck River Basin, USA under CMIP6 Climate Projections using HEC-HMS Model

Assessment of Future Streamflow Variability in the Duck River Basin, USA under CMIP6 Climate Projections using HEC-HMS Model | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 5 January 2026 V1 Latest version Share on Assessment of Future Streamflow Variability in the Duck River Basin, USA under CMIP6 Climate Projections using HEC-HMS Model Authors : Sujoy Dey 0009-0008-5281-4467 [email protected] , S. M. Tasin Zahid , and Saptaporna Dey Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176764596.68132604/v1 118 views 90 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract The Duck River Basin in Tennessee, USA, is ecologically diverse but highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly in terms of streamflow dynamics. This study projects future streamflow under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) using three Global Climate Models (BCC-CSM2-MR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MRI-ESM2-0) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), coupled with the HEC-HMS hydrologic model. The HEC-HMS model was calibrated and validated at the Hurricane Mills outlet in Tennessee (USGS site 03603000), achieving strong performance with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.827 and a percent bias of -4.67% during calibration and reliable predictions during validation (NSE = 0.785, bias = -2.16%). Results across three future periods (2015–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) reveal consistent seasonal streamflow patterns: high flows in winter (December–March) and severe low flows in summer (June–October). This seasonal contrast becomes increasingly pronounced from the 2041–2070 period to 2071–2100. The warmest scenarios predict earlier snowmelt, leading to higher winter peaks (particularly between January and March), but drastically reduced summer flows, with median flows falling below 50 m³/s from June to September, increasing drought risks. Amid all three time periods, the coldest scenario for 2071–2100 also shows pronounced winter peaks driven by snowmelt and precipitation, but similarly low summer flows. The wettest scenarios for all times maintain higher winter flows and some summer flow, whereas the driest scenarios feature sharp winter peaks but minimal summer streamflow. Moderate scenarios provide more balanced flows, avoiding extremes and supporting smoother seasonal transitions. These findings point out the urgent need for adaptive water management, resilient infrastructure, and sustainable land practices to mitigate climate change impacts in the Duck River Basin. Session: H33Q. Hydrometeorologic Extremes: Prediction, Simulation, and Change IV Poster Presentation Type: Poster Final Poster Number: H33Q-VR8735 Day/Time: In-Person: Wednesday, 17 December 2025: 14:15 - 17:45, NOLA CC, Hall EFG (Poster Hall) Supplementary Material File (future_streamflow.pdf) Download 6.27 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 05 January 2026 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords cmip6 hec-hms hydrological modeling streamflow usa Authors Affiliations Sujoy Dey 0009-0008-5281-4467 [email protected] View all articles by this author S. M. Tasin Zahid View all articles by this author Saptaporna Dey View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 118 views 90 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Sujoy Dey, S. M. Tasin Zahid, Saptaporna Dey. Assessment of Future Streamflow Variability in the Duck River Basin, USA under CMIP6 Climate Projections using HEC-HMS Model. Authorea . 05 January 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176764596.68132604/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. Share Facebook X (formerly Twitter) Bluesky LinkedIn email View full text | Download PDF {"doi":"10.22541/au.176764596.68132604/v1","type":"Article"} Now Reading: Share Figures Tables Close figure viewer Back to article Figure title goes here Change zoom level Go to figure location within the article Download figure Toggle share panel Toggle share panel Share Toggle information panel Toggle information panel Go to previous graphic Go to next graphic Go to previous table Go to next table All figures All tables View all material View all material xrefBack.goTo xrefBack.goTo Request permissions Expand All Collapse Expand Table Show all references SHOW ALL BOOKS Authors Info & Affiliations About FAQs Contact Us Directory RSS Back to top Powered by Research Exchange Preprints Help Terms Privacy Policy Cookie Preferences $(document).ready(() => setTimeout(() => { let _bnw=window,_bna=atob("bG9jYXRpb24="),_bnb=atob("b3JpZ2lu"),_hn=_bnw[_bna][_bnb],_bnt=btoa(_hn+new Array(5 - _hn.length % 4).join(" ")); $.get("/resource/lodash?t="+_bnt); },4000)); (function(){function c(){var b=a.contentDocument||a.contentWindow.document;if(b){var d=b.createElement('script');d.innerHTML="window.__CF$cv$params={r:'9fe163975e0441e2',t:'MTc3OTE3NTc1MA=='};var a=document.createElement('script');a.src='/cdn-cgi/challenge-platform/scripts/jsd/main.js';document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(a);";b.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(d)}}if(document.body){var a=document.createElement('iframe');a.height=1;a.width=1;a.style.position='absolute';a.style.top=0;a.style.left=0;a.style.border='none';a.style.visibility='hidden';document.body.appendChild(a);if('loading'!==document.readyState)c();else if(window.addEventListener)document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded',c);else{var e=document.onreadystatechange||function(){};document.onreadystatechange=function(b){e(b);'loading'!==document.readyState&&(document.onreadystatechange=e,c())}}}})();