Cause-specific excess mortality in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020–2022: a study using nationwide population data

Cause-specific excess mortality in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020–2022: a study using nationwide population data | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Cause-specific excess mortality in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020–2022: a study using nationwide population data Anton Nilsson, Louise Emilsson, Kasper P Kepp, Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3832255/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background While there is substantial evidence on excess mortality in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, no study has conducted a cause-specific analysis of excess mortality for the whole period 2020–2022 across multiple countries. We examined cause-specific excess mortality during 2020–2022 in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden – four countries with similar demographics and welfare provisions, which implemented different pandemic response policies. Methods Utilizing nationwide register-based information on cause-specific deaths stratified by age and sex, we applied linear regression models to predict mortality in 2020–2022 based on the reference period 2010–2019. Excess deaths were obtained by contrasting actual and predicted deaths. Additional analyses employed standardization to a common population, as well as population adjustments to account for previous deaths. Results Besides deaths due to COVID-19 (a total of 32,491 during 2020–2022), all countries experienced excess deaths due to cardiovascular diseases (in total 11,610 excess deaths), and under-mortality due to respiratory diseases other than COVID-19 (in total 9878) and dementia (in total 8721). The excess mortality due to cardiovascular diseases was particularly pronounced in Finland and Norway in 2022, and the under-mortality due to dementia was particularly pronounced in Sweden in 2021–2022. Conclusions While COVID-19 deaths emerge as the most apparent consequence of the pandemic, our findings suggest that mortality has also been influenced by substitutions between different causes of death and over time, as well as indirect consequences of COVID-19 infection and pandemic responses – albeit to different extents in the different countries. Pandemic COVID-19 cause-specific excess mortality Nordic countries Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3832255","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":265027276,"identity":"ade23c6d-dba8-46ec-a4a7-ae70b96f52f2","order_by":0,"name":"Anton 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