Stock Price Prediction in the Banking Sector of Bangladesh: an Ensemble LSTM Framework

Stock Price Prediction in the Banking Sector of Bangladesh: an Ensemble LSTM Framework | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Stock Price Prediction in the Banking Sector of Bangladesh: an Ensemble LSTM Framework Anik Islam, Anika Tahsin, Anwarul Karim, Sadia Sharmin This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9267752/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Predicting the values of stock prices remains one of the most challenging problems due to the complex, nonlinear, and volatile nature of financial markets. Many influencing factors dictate the nature of stock prices. Not only macro-economic factors like inflation rate and exchange rate, but also socio-political issues exert influence on the overall stock market behaviour of the banks in Bangladesh. This study proposes a data-driven framework for predicting the closing stock prices of banks in the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). An exhaustive dataset of stock market data and relevant factors was also prepared for this study. The framework proposed consists of a two-stage ensemble learning technique. Separate Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) sub-models are trained on historical data of individual banks, and the outputs are then integrated to develop a meta-level dataset. A meta-model was trained on the meta-level dataset. Model evaluation is performed through a pipeline of trained submodels and a metamodel on a merged test dataset. The training and testing processes have been performed on different dataset combinations to capture the relevance of the factors to the predictions. Stock Price Prediction Banking Sector of Bangladesh Political Unrest Macroeconomic Factors Long Short-Term Memory Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9267752","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":618414311,"identity":"4400a8ff-76a6-469d-89bf-c29a53913a3b","order_by":0,"name":"Anik Islam","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anik","middleName":"","lastName":"Islam","suffix":""},{"id":618414312,"identity":"bc4d85ed-4a3c-474c-8d6f-ccb44a51fabf","order_by":1,"name":"Anika Tahsin","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHgaGBCDFxsPA+OBDBZDFzNxAQANCC7PhjDMgLYxEaIGy2KR520AsAlrs2c8e/vBwh10eH8/hB5Iz59VG87cDtfyo2IbbFp68NInEM8nFbLxtBgYftx3PnXGYsYGx58xtPA7LMWNIbGNObONnMEicue1YbgNQCzNjGx4t/G+MPyS21QO1sH84zDvnWO58glokcgwkEtsOJ7bx9hg28zbU5G4gqOXGGzOgluOJbTxnihlnHDuQuxGo5SA+v7D35xh//NlWnTi/J337jw81dbnzzh8++OBHBW4t6OAwmDxAtHogqCNF8SgYBaNgFIwQAACR5lvB0JgiJAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anika","middleName":"","lastName":"Tahsin","suffix":""},{"id":618414313,"identity":"77d99b0c-eece-4765-bc38-0efcd1117ac7","order_by":2,"name":"Anwarul Karim","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anwarul","middleName":"","lastName":"Karim","suffix":""},{"id":618414317,"identity":"95022aa5-1e9b-4fd0-ab81-f7d6ac8aafbc","order_by":3,"name":"Sadia Sharmin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sadia","middleName":"","lastName":"Sharmin","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-30 13:41:06","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9267752/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9267752/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106579550,"identity":"b0a2a129-5129-4cce-ae2d-baac38ef8c33","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-10 06:27:13","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1412918,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"StockPricePrediction.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9267752/v1_covered_8a5b9910-de54-43f4-a3f8-fa40a8e63402.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Stock Price Prediction in the Banking Sector of Bangladesh: an Ensemble LSTM Framework","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Stock Price Prediction, Banking Sector of Bangladesh, Political Unrest, Macroeconomic Factors, Long Short-Term Memory, Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE)","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9267752/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9267752/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Predicting the values of stock prices remains one of the most challenging problems due to the complex, nonlinear, and volatile nature of financial markets. 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