Impact of Climate Warming on Oncomelania hupensis in China- Multi-scale Evidence

Impact of Climate Warming on Oncomelania hupensis in China- Multi-scale Evidence | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Impact of Climate Warming on Oncomelania hupensis in China- Multi-scale Evidence Qin Li, Jin-Xin Zheng, Li-Juan Zhang, Su-ying Guo, Ying Yang, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8804450/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Climate warming is increasingly reshaping the population dynamics of Oncomelania hupensis , the sole intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum in China. Investigating the response of O. hupensis to climate warming is crucial for guiding targeted and precise interventions against these snails, thereby accelerating progress towards schistosomiasis elimination in China. Method We conducted temperature-controlled laboratory experiments to quantify survival, body size, and body weight responses of individual O. hupensis under non-optimal temperatures. We then developed sliding-window models based on long-term (1990–2022) population surveys and climate data, examining climate exposure across its life stages to assess population-level responses to climate warming; and used general linear mixed-effect models to explore the environmental factors of climate responses (geographic: latitude, longitude, altitude, land use, historical climate variety). Model performance was evaluated to identify the best predictive models, which were subsequently used to project future O. hupensis density under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. We further sampled 240 wild O. hupensis and measured their body sizes. Results At the individual level, we observed that larger snails had a higher survival rate at non-optimal temperatures but experienced a significant loss in body mass compared with the control group. At the population level, O. hupensis density closely tracks climate warming, with 91.964% of populations showing positive temperature sensitivity. Exposure during the coldest and breeding seasons had a greater influence on O. hupensis density with climate warming. O. hupensis in waterbody-dominated areas showed the largest density growth rates, whereas crop populations were the most sensitive to land cover. At the ecosystem level, only 18.968% – 24.610% of populations were expected to benefit from climate change by 2100, and these benefiting populations were concentrated in regions where sampled wild snails had a mean body size of 8.195 mm. Crop accounts for 71.953% of populations benefiting from climate warming, compared with 17.169% in forests and 8.257% in impervious-dominated areas. Conclusion The O. hupensis population benefited from climate warming but was regulated by land-use types. To mitigate the impacts of climate warming and land-use on snails, surveillance and integrated interventions should be strengthened through multi-sector collaboration. Oncomelania hupensis Climate warming Land use Temperature Time window Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Additionalfile1.docx Additionalfile2.docx Additionalfile3.docx Additionalfile4.docx Additionalfile5.docx Additionalfile6.docx FigureA1.tiff FigureA2.tiff Additionalfile7.docx FigureA51.tiff Additionalfile8.docx Additionalfile9.docx FigureA52.tiff Additionalfile10.docx FigureA15.tif Additionalfile11.docx Additionalfile12.docx Additionalfile13.docx Additionalfile14.docx Additionalfile15.docx Additionalfile16.docx Additionalfile17.docx Additionalfile18.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 31 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 24 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 20 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 21 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 12 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 09 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 09 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 06 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8804450","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":591545776,"identity":"b56876a6-1ab7-4e23-a3e0-4c2817bf183d","order_by":0,"name":"Qin Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute for Parasitic Diseases","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qin","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":591545782,"identity":"4c6f781e-33de-42de-bf17-48629a667fa0","order_by":1,"name":"Jin-Xin Zheng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shanghai Jiao Tong 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Evidence","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"infectious-diseases-of-poverty","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"idop","sideBox":"Learn more about [Infectious Diseases of Poverty](http://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/idop/default.aspx","title":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty","twitterHandle":"@BioMedCentral","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Oncomelania hupensis, Climate warming, Land use, Temperature, Time window","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8804450/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8804450/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eBackground\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eClimate warming is increasingly reshaping the population dynamics of \u003cem\u003eOncomelania hupensis\u003c/em\u003e, the sole intermediate host of \u003cem\u003eSchistosoma japonicum\u003c/em\u003e in China. Investigating the response of \u003cem\u003eO. hupensis\u003c/em\u003e to climate warming is crucial for guiding targeted and precise interventions against these snails, thereby accelerating progress towards schistosomiasis elimination in China.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethod\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe conducted temperature-controlled laboratory experiments to quantify survival, body size, and body weight responses of individual \u003cem\u003eO. hupensis\u003c/em\u003e under non-optimal temperatures. We then developed sliding-window models based on long-term (1990\u0026ndash;2022) population surveys and climate data, examining climate exposure across its life stages to assess population-level responses to climate warming; and used general linear mixed-effect models to explore the environmental factors of climate responses (geographic: latitude, longitude, altitude, land use, historical climate variety). Model performance was evaluated to identify the best predictive models, which were subsequently used to project future \u003cem\u003eO. hupensis\u003c/em\u003e density under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. We further sampled 240 wild \u003cem\u003eO. hupensis\u003c/em\u003e and measured their body sizes.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eAt the individual level, we observed that larger snails had a higher survival rate at non-optimal temperatures but experienced a significant loss in body mass compared with the control group. At the population level, \u003cem\u003eO. hupensis\u003c/em\u003e density closely tracks climate warming, with 91.964% of populations showing positive temperature sensitivity. Exposure during the coldest and breeding seasons had a greater influence on \u003cem\u003eO. hupensis\u003c/em\u003e density with climate warming. \u003cem\u003eO. hupensis\u003c/em\u003e in waterbody-dominated areas showed the largest density growth rates, whereas crop populations were the most sensitive to land cover. At the ecosystem level, only 18.968% \u0026ndash; 24.610% of populations were expected to benefit from climate change by 2100, and these benefiting populations were concentrated in regions where sampled wild snails had a mean body size of 8.195 mm. Crop accounts for 71.953% of populations benefiting from climate warming, compared with 17.169% in forests and 8.257% in impervious-dominated areas.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusion\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe \u003cem\u003eO. hupensis\u003c/em\u003e population benefited from climate warming but was regulated by land-use types. To mitigate the impacts of climate warming and land-use on snails, surveillance and integrated interventions should be strengthened through multi-sector collaboration.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Impact of Climate Warming on Oncomelania hupensis in China- Multi-scale Evidence","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-17 15:11:16","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8804450/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-03-31T11:32:40+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-03-24T09:03:25+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-03-20T16:03:42+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"18190009521891490919552884893785815823","date":"2026-03-13T10:55:51+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"52123198664187442456107122014095522980","date":"2026-03-12T07:36:39+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-21T05:15:00+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"259222276718340267287829824139567329743","date":"2026-02-19T16:48:32+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"10872954066617143848319330013456086579","date":"2026-02-15T06:08:44+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-02-12T07:17:13+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-02-09T15:00:36+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-02-09T14:53:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty","date":"2026-02-06T07:49:49+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"infectious-diseases-of-poverty","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"idop","sideBox":"Learn more about [Infectious Diseases of Poverty](http://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/idop/default.aspx","title":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty","twitterHandle":"@BioMedCentral","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"666c2b44-5f0a-420b-9bc4-7c99e5d3f815","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 17th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-09T13:53:36+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-17 15:11:16","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8804450","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8804450","identity":"rs-8804450","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}