Red Flags in Green Promises: A Framework for Identifying Greenwashing Risk in Corporate Climate Pledges

Red Flags in Green Promises: A Framework for Identifying Greenwashing Risk in Corporate Climate Pledges | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Red Flags in Green Promises: A Framework for Identifying Greenwashing Risk in Corporate Climate Pledges Elizabeth Brown, Angel Hsu, Diego Manya This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6802349/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 2 posted 8 You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract As corporate net-zero pledges multiply, concerns about their credibility and potential for greenwashing are rising. This study is the first to develop a framework specifically tailored to assessing greenwashing in climate and net-zero pledges, combining disclosures, implementation plans, performance data, and lobbying activity, and to apply it at scale to more than 4,000 companies. Using data from CDP, InfluenceMap, and the Net Zero Tracker, this analysis offers the largest empirical assessment of its kind. We identify greenwashing risk across seven dimensions, including missing interim targets, Scope 3 exclusion, offset reliance, and misaligned lobbying. Strikingly, 96% of pledging companies exhibit at least one risk indicator, with Scope 3 gaps, poor planning, and offsets most common. Firms with ambitious targets and measurable progress show lower greenwashing risk. Sectoral and regional patterns also emerge, with elevated risks in North America and fossil-heavy industries. Our approach advances the evidence base and supports stronger standards and oversight for corporate climate accountability. corporate climate action greenwashing net zero accountability Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 2 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 16 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 15 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 13 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 22 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 20 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 19 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 02 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6802349","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":539493177,"identity":"e49023bc-b922-11f0-907b-06cc9d20a69f","order_by":0,"name":"Elizabeth Brown","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Elizabeth","middleName":"","lastName":"Brown","suffix":""},{"id":539493189,"identity":"ecb92c7c-b922-11f0-907b-06cc9d20a69f","order_by":1,"name":"Angel 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