Sustainability in Jordan's Municipal Solid Waste Management System: Reduction of Methane Emissions and Benefits to Public Health

Sustainability in Jordan's Municipal Solid Waste Management System: Reduction of Methane Emissions and Benefits to Public Health | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Sustainability in Jordan's Municipal Solid Waste Management System: Reduction of Methane Emissions and Benefits to Public Health Anas Ghawanmeh, Fayez Abdulla, Marc G. Weisskopf, Wael K. Al-Delaimy, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9283805/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Municipal solid waste management (MSWM) in Jordan faces significant challenges. Jordan's primary waste management strategy relies heavily on final disposal, with up to 80% of all generated solid waste ultimately being landfilled. These unsustainable practices lead to environmental degradation and public health risks. Increased methane emissions have harmed air quality: methane can lead to the formation of ground-level ozone, which in turn causes respiratory problems including asthma and pneumonia. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of improved solid waste management strategies on methane emissions in the period from 2020 to 2050. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) is used for the analysis, and current methane emissions from municipal solid waste are estimated using data obtained from the Ministry of Local Administration, the Greater Amman Municipality, the Department of Statistics, and the World Health Organization. These datasets, which include information on waste quantities and landfill boundaries, are integrated into the LEAP software to facilitate estimation of methane emissions. Our analysis finds that, without intervention, methane emissions will rise from 4.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2020 to 7.8 million tons by 2050 due to increasing population and economic expansion. In addition to the serious environmental consequences, we estimate public health damages of $ 41 billion per year by 2050, linked to excess mortality. In the short-term, methane emissions can be mitigated by following a “circular economy” strategy of reuse and recycling. This could reduce methane emissions by 12% by 2030. Medium-term strategies, including the establishment of sanitary landfills and recycling facilities, combined with the short-term projects can reduce methane emissions 34% below baseline by 2040. Adding long-term strategies, including composting and additional reuse, leads to reductions of 55% by 2050. More dramatic individual changes to the system also have large effects: shifting to incineration instead of landfills reduces methane emissions by 52%. Advanced recycling facilities can reduce emissions by 35%. These results highlight the impact of improved integrated waste management approaches on reducing emissions and thus enhancing public health and global climate goals. The paper underscores the importance of technical advancement in solid waste management in Jordan. We show that large environmental and economic gains are possible with aggressive governmental actions and collaboration among stakeholders. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Municipal Solid Waste Management Methane LEAP WasteMap Jordan scenarios SLCPs Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files DataSustainabilityinJordansMunicipalSolidWasteManagement1.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 01 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 06 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 01 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 01 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 31 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9283805","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":621631369,"identity":"381099a9-25f6-4e86-9c44-14a1a4898d36","order_by":0,"name":"Anas Ghawanmeh","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Jordan University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anas","middleName":"","lastName":"Ghawanmeh","suffix":""},{"id":621631370,"identity":"38eef827-32e6-4884-85f0-ade5979a0556","order_by":1,"name":"Fayez Abdulla","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Jordan University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fayez","middleName":"","lastName":"Abdulla","suffix":""},{"id":621631377,"identity":"4db260fe-a5bd-474b-b684-8786ed9f5df4","order_by":2,"name":"Marc G. 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Jordan's primary waste management strategy relies heavily on final disposal, with up to 80% of all generated solid waste ultimately being landfilled. These unsustainable practices lead to environmental degradation and public health risks. Increased methane emissions have harmed air quality: methane can lead to the formation of ground-level ozone, which in turn causes respiratory problems including asthma and pneumonia. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of improved solid waste management strategies on methane emissions in the period from 2020 to 2050. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) is used for the analysis, and current methane emissions from municipal solid waste are estimated using data obtained from the Ministry of Local Administration, the Greater Amman Municipality, the Department of Statistics, and the World Health Organization. These datasets, which include information on waste quantities and landfill boundaries, are integrated into the LEAP software to facilitate estimation of methane emissions. Our analysis finds that, without intervention, methane emissions will rise from 4.3\u0026nbsp;million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2020 to 7.8\u0026nbsp;million tons by 2050 due to increasing population and economic expansion. In addition to the serious environmental consequences, we estimate public health damages of \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e41\u0026nbsp;billion per year by 2050, linked to excess mortality. In the short-term, methane emissions can be mitigated by following a \u0026ldquo;circular economy\u0026rdquo; strategy of reuse and recycling. This could reduce methane emissions by 12% by 2030. Medium-term strategies, including the establishment of sanitary landfills and recycling facilities, combined with the short-term projects can reduce methane emissions 34% below baseline by 2040. Adding long-term strategies, including composting and additional reuse, leads to reductions of 55% by 2050. More dramatic individual changes to the system also have large effects: shifting to incineration instead of landfills reduces methane emissions by 52%. Advanced recycling facilities can reduce emissions by 35%. These results highlight the impact of improved integrated waste management approaches on reducing emissions and thus enhancing public health and global climate goals. The paper underscores the importance of technical advancement in solid waste management in Jordan. 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