Attributing the extreme 2022 Pakistan Rainfall to CO2-induced Climate Change using Seasonal Forecasts

Attributing the extreme 2022 Pakistan Rainfall to CO2-induced Climate Change using Seasonal Forecasts | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Attributing the extreme 2022 Pakistan Rainfall to CO2-induced Climate Change using Seasonal Forecasts Antje Weisheimer, Tim Palmer, Nicholas Leach, Myles Allen, Chris Roberts, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5383732/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 2 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract While it is widely believed that the intense rainfall in summer 2022 over Pakistan was substantially exacerbated by climate change 1 , 2 , climate models struggled to confirm this 3 , 4 . Using a high-resolution operational seasonal forecasting system that successfully predicted the extreme wet conditions, we perform counterfactual experiments simulating pre-industrial and future conditions. Both perturbed experiments show only minor rainfall changes, suggesting a limited role of CO₂ forcing for the event. Historical rise in CO₂ and ocean warming enhanced the rainfall by less than 10%, while simulations with increased CO₂ and warmer oceans fail to show a clear signal but increase the range of possible outcomes. By decomposing rainfall and underlying large-scale circulation into atmospheric CO 2 and SST-induced components, we illustrate how their relative changes control future dynamical responses. Accurately capturing the local dynamics is crucial for reliable regional climate adaptation and informing loss and damage discussions. Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 2 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 26 Apr, 2025 Reviews received at journal 26 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Apr, 2025 Reviews received at journal 11 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 08 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Mar, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Mar, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 19 Mar, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 19 Mar, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 19 Mar, 2025 First submitted to journal 14 Mar, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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